Pelham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS64 KBMX 021049
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
549 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025

 - There is a very conditional risk of thunderstorms today and
   Thursday across the northwest portions of Central Alabama. If
   any storms can develop, they may become strong to severe.

 - Windy conditions are expected this afternoon through early
   Thursday morning. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40
   mph expected.

 - Very warm conditions are expected today through Saturday.
   Record highs are likely each afternoon as highs reach the upper
   80s to lower 90s.

 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across the
   northwest and west portions of Central Alabama during the pre-
   dawn and morning hours on Sunday. The threats include
   tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level riding to our
east and a strengthening upper trough out to our west. Temperatures
early this morning are a bit warmer than what we saw yesterday with
readings currently in the mid to upper 60s. Low level moisture will
gradually spread across the region today as a warm front lifts
north. Meanwhile, a cold front will stall to our northwest and
meander for a couple of days. While the better rain chances will
remain to our northwest, have continued with a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms across our NW counties to account for the
proximity to the upper level forcing and the fact that we will be
close to our convective temps. As the frontal boundary inches south,
the pressure gradient will tighten, leading to a stout southerly
breeze. Have expanded the Wind Advisory further south and east to
fall in line with the latest HREF probs which suggests a high chance
of gusts over 30 MPH and a low to moderate chance of gusts over 40
MPH. Winds will begin to weaken late this evening. The setup is
pretty similar for Thursday with low chances for showers and storms
across our northwestern counties. The pressure gradient won`t be as
strong on Thursday so not expecting winds to be a concern.

One of the main stories in the short term is the start of decent
warming trend. Temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees for most locations. Record high temps
will likely be broken over the next couple of days (there is more
info in the climate section below). Have nudged temps up a degree or
two based on the latest NBM probs with a medium to high chance of
temps over 90 and the ECMWF EFI indicating an unusually warm
event.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025

Central Alabama will remain quite warm at the start of the long term
period, with near record temperatures on Friday and Saturday. The
stout upper level ridge helping to bring the warmth to our area will
also continue to keep 90-95 percent of the forecast area free from
rain as well, at least until the weekend.

Ultimately, the large upper level trough to our west will finally
break down the ridge here, allowing a cold front to push into and
across central Alabama in the late Saturday night into Sunday time
frame. This frontal passage will be accompanied by a broad swath of
showers and thunderstorms, with a risk of strong to severe storms.
The timing of this system is very similar to the one we had this
past Sunday night and Monday, with instability levels bottoming out
about the time the active convection reaches our area.

In the wake of the weekend system, global models are in pretty good
agreement with the general idea of a pattern shift next week.
Longwave troughing in the eastern third of the CONUS is forecast to
lead to below normal temperatures and a respite from the active
strong/severe thunderstorm pattern we`ve been in such the middle of
March.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals a low level stratus
deck spreading north across the region. This will lead to areawide
MVFR cigs through 17/18Z. MGM will see a few hours of IFR around
sunrise. Southerly winds will begin to increase through the day
with gusts to around 30 knots likely through the afternoon/early
evening hours. Winds will gradually weaken after 00Z. Low level
stratus develops again towards the end of this TAF window.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and quite warm conditions are expected across much of the
area through the remainder of the work week, except for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms in the far northwest counties each
day. Winds will become quite gusty today, but less so the
remainder of the week. Humidity levels are expected to remain
above critical thresholds through the week. The next chance for
widespread rain returns for Saturday night into Sunday, ahead of a
cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025

Forecast high temperatures are near record values from Wednesday,
April 2nd to Saturday, April 5th. The table below shows current
record high temperatures for each of those days.

                April 2     April 3     April 4     April 5

Anniston        87          89          86          88
Birmingham      86          87          88          88
Tuscaloosa      88          86          87          89
Montgomery      88          87          89          91

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  64  89  65 /  10   0  10   0
Anniston    87  65  88  65 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  88  67  89  69 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  88  67  89  68 /  10   0  10  10
Calera      87  67  89  68 /  10   0  10   0
Auburn      86  66  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  89  67  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        88  66  88  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo