Helena, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS64 KBMX 121058
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
558 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge in
place across the southeast and an upper trough digging south
towards the Texas coast. At the surface, moisture is on the rise
with PWATs now in the 1.8-2" range according to the latest TPW
imagery. The KBMX 00z sounding reported a PWAT of 1.46". Ridging
aloft will gradually weaken and shift east through the day as the
trough to our west lifts to the northeast. Several H5 shortwaves
eject out ahead of the trough but will likely remain too far north
of us to provide much of an impact. With that said, guidance
suggests a few streams of H85-H7 energy will pass through the
region which will help enhance any diurnally driven convection
over the next couple of days. With little shear, would expect any
storms to be relatively short-lived. Brief periods of heavy
rainfall are likely with any passing shower or storm as forecast
soundings show a fairly saturated profile as this tropical
moisture moves in. Greatest chances for stronger storms looks to
be Friday afternoon as a pocket of enhanced H5 vorticity moves
towards the TN Valley. Latest CAMS are starting to hint at a line
of storms moving across MS during the day on Friday. At this
point, not too confident on how far east this activity stays
together as the best upper support will be north and west of us.
We will need to closely monitor the trends.

Otherwise, it will be warm and muggy over the next several days.
High today and tomorrow settle into the mid to upper 80s with
heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

The unsettled and tropical weather pattern will continue through
the upcoming weekend as diurnally-driven numerous to widespread
showers and storms remain in the forecast. Central Alabama will
remain wedged in between the weakening mid-level closed low/trough
to our northwest and 593 decameter ridge just off the Florida
Atlantic coast. Southwesterly flow will dominate over most of the
atmospheric profile, with plenty of synoptic lift and divergence
aloft as the mid-level trough axis slowly swings eastward across
the Deep South. Warm air and moisture advection is advertised to
keep stronger storms limited as lapse rates aloft become moist-
adiabatic and PWATs rise above 2 inches. As mentioned yesterday,
for folks who have outdoor activities planned over the weekend
you need to make preparations for at least a passing shower or
storm that will put a damper on things, but for the most part a
washout is not anticipated despite high overall PoPs during the
afternoon. With the high moisture content in the atmosphere,
showers and storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and
could lead to localized flooding within urban areas and poor
drainage locations.

Elevated rain and storm chances especially during the afternoon
hours remain in the forecast through Tuesday of next week, as we
remain stuck between the ridge to the southeast and 500mb
weakness to the northwest. By the end of the week, guidance trends
are now clearly indicating a very high likelihood of hot days
ahead as we go into mid-June. Upper level ridging is advertised to
greatly increase by Wednesday and Thursday of next week, sending
highs well into the 90s over consecutive days. Although the exact
location the building 500mb ridge remains in question across the
southern CONUS by late next week, the overall signal continues to
point toward a hot pattern with heat indices rising between 100
and 105 degrees each afternoon. Diurnally-driven scattered to
perhaps numerous summertime convective showers and storms would
also be in the forecast each day.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

MVFR conditions are just now beginning to settle in. Not
expecting this low level stratus to be around too long with VFR
returning by 14-15Z. Transitioned the PROB30 groups for afternoon
convection to TEMPOs for TSRA from 20-00Z. Brief heavy rainfall
can be expected with any passing shower or storm. Winds generally
remain less than 10 knots through this TAF cycle.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and very moist airmass will remain in place through the
end of this week. MinRH values are forecast to remain above 60
percent each afternoon as a tropical air mass moves northward
over the Deep South with high rain chances. 20 ft winds from the
south will be very light, generally less than 5 mph through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  68  88  70 /  60  40  70  40
Anniston    86  70  86  71 /  60  40  70  40
Birmingham  87  71  88  72 /  50  40  70  30
Tuscaloosa  88  71  88  72 /  50  40  80  30
Calera      87  71  86  72 /  50  40  70  30
Auburn      86  70  85  71 /  70  40  70  30
Montgomery  88  71  88  72 /  60  30  80  20
Troy        88  69  88  71 /  70  40  80  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...95/Castillo