Enterprise, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

978
FXUS62 KTAE 160002
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
802 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Another round of potentially significant severe weather is
  becoming increasingly likely late Sunday night into Monday. All
  hazards are possible.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions expected on Monday in the
  wake of a strong cold front. A Gale Warning is in effect for
  Gulf Waters west of Apalachicola.

- A late season freeze remains on the table for Monday and
  Tuesday nights with freezing to sub-freezing wind chills. A
  Freeze Warning has been issued for much of the area Monday
  night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A potentially significant severe weather event is still forecast
late tonight through Monday morning along and ahead of a strong
cold front. This system looks very favorable for severe weather,
with strong mid and upper-level dynamics, high low level wind
shear, and unseasonably high instability (CAPE), particularly for
a mostly nighttime event. All modes of severe weather will be
possible including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. A few
tornadoes could be strong. There is still some uncertainty on the
storm mode for this event. The main severe threat is forecast to
be in a squall line or broken line of showers and storms with
embedded supercells along or just ahead of the front. Some
discrete supercell development will also be possible out ahead of
this main swath, but confidence is a bit lower in these
developing. If they do, both right and left-moving supercells will
be possible thanks to mostly straight hodographs. Right-movers
would favor tornadoes, and left-movers would pose more of a large
hail threat. SPC has our SE AL counties, inland FL Panhandle, and
a sliver of SW GA next to AL in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)
for severe weather. The rest of our area is in a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5). Since the storms are expected to still be pushing
across our area at 12z, the event spans both the Day 1 and 2 SPC
outlooks. Rest assured, however, that this is just one event.

A sharp, strong cold front is forecast to push through the area in
the wake of the storms with a much colder and drier air mass
behind it. Temperatures will actually fall throughout the day
Monday for most of our area with windy NW winds making it feel
even cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Freezing conditions are forecast to return to the area once again
Monday night and again Tuesday night in the wake of the strong
cold front. Strong cold air advection and windy NW winds will
drive low temperatures Monday night into the upper 20s to mid 30s,
with wind chills well into the 20s. A Freeze Warning has been
issued for SE AL, the inland FL Panhandle, portions of the western
Big Bend, and SW GA for Monday night. Tuesday night might be
actually be colder with high pressure overhead creating a
favorable setup for radiational cooling, and another freeze
warning may be required. However, light winds Tuesday night will
keep wind chills in the mid 20s to low 30s despite similar to
slightly colder temperatures. These freezing temperatures will be
especially impactful given the growing season is already underway.

A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected Wednesday
onward, with temperatures returning to the 80s again by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 801 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Low clouds/stratus will push inland tonight, leading to IFR to MVFR
ceilings spreading from south to north. A strong cold front will
race through the area Monday morning. The TEMPO groups indicate the
best timing of the line`s arrival at this time with some VCTS before
and after the TEMPOs as a bit of a buffer in case any isolated
showers/storms develop ahead of the main line.

Behind the line, MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue as winds
rapidly turn westerly to northwesterly; gusts will generally be
between 20 to 30 knots by late morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Increasing winds and waves are expected over the next day or so as
a strong cold front pushes across the waters late tonight through
Monday. Breezy S to SW winds are expected ahead of the front
tonight before turning sharply NW and increasing in the wake of
the front Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
area-wide tonight to account for the increasing onshore flow, and
a Gale Warning is in effect for Gulf waters west of Apalachicola
starting Monday morning for winds in the wake of the front.
Elevated winds and seas are expected through at least Monday night
before gradually subsiding. Strong thunderstorms are also expected
ahead of and along the front tonight into early Monday morning,
with damaging winds, hail, and waterspouts all possible. A return
to more tranquil boating conditions is expected midweek into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong southerly to southwesterly winds are expected through
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this front late
tonight through Monday morning with damaging winds, hail, and
tornadoes all possible. Around 0.5 inch of rainfall is expected
across the area with this system, but isolated spots of higher
amounts are possible. Much colder and drier conditions are
forecast to move into the area in the wake of the front, with
temps actually falling through much of the day on Monday. Dry and
cold conditions persist into Tuesday and Wednesday with
critically dry humidity possible. Breezy transport winds in the
wake of the front will also lead to excellent dispersions both
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The only notable rain over the next several days is on Monday,
but forecast amounts are mostly about a half inch to three-
quarters of an inch (isolated higher) given the expected frontal
system`s progressive nature. Values are subject to change. While
beneficial, these numbers are not nearly high enough to make much
of a dent in our ongoing severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought. The
CPC Day 8-14 Precipitation Outlook as of March 13th, paints a
pessimistic picture with widespread 40-50% probabilities of
(leaning) below-normal precipitation - valid March 22nd-28th.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  73  36  55 /  70  80   0   0
Panama City   54  72  37  56 /  80  80   0   0
Dothan        49  65  31  52 /  80  70   0   0
Albany        54  70  31  53 /  60  80   0   0
Valdosta      62  75  34  54 /  60  90  10   0
Cross City    65  77  35  60 /  70  90  10   0
Apalachicola  60  72  38  56 /  80  90   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM
     CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ007>013-016-326.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>158.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CDT Tuesday
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     GMZ730-735-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-
     772.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ751-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3