Dothan, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

226
FXUS62 KTAE 300151
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Dangerous heat is expected through Tuesday, increasing the
  potential for heat stress and illnesses. Stay hydrated and take
  frequent breaks in air-conditioned places if possible.

- Afternoon thunderstorms are possible this evening and
  especially Tuesday. Some may produce strong wind gusts and
  frequent lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

- There is a high risk of rip currents this afternoon along Walton
  and Bay County beaches. Heed local beach flags and advice from
  lifeguards.

- Dangerous heat may return for the holiday weekend again
  increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Tonight`s rain chances were adjusted based on the latest radar
trends. Previously robust convection moving from NE to SW from
I-16 has weakened considerably during its approach to our northern
tier SW GA counties. Only remnant isolated showers are expected
with this decaying activity. However, a likely boundary left
behind these thunderstorms should set the stage for a convectively
active afternoon for tomorrow. For this reason, we will hold off
on issuing any pre-emptive Heat Advisory (unlike yesterday) to
allow for more careful consideration on spatial & temporal
windows.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
... (This Evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently, satellite derived PWATs are sitting around 1.6 inches as
a very strong upper level ridge is settling in over most of the
eastern conus, continuing our trend of increasing temperatures over
the forecast area. While actual high temps are running around 3-6
degrees above normal, which are still short of our record highs.
Max apparent temps are hitting near 105 on the low end, and in
the current heat advisory along with a few other pockets toping
out near 110. There will be only a slight reprieve overnight as
lows are only expected to drop into the upper 70s. The chance of
afternoon showers cooling us little has diminished somewhat. High
res guidance like the HRRR have all but given up on the latest
runs, while the FV3 still has a boundary or MCS pushing through
late evening into tonight. Some higher PWATs upstream could
support this, and SPC does now have a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms today east of I- 75. Conditions are favorable if we
get that push to initiate convection.

That said, chances for tomorrow remain elevated. A shortwave impulse
being pulled around the southern portion of the upper level high,
centered to our north, will provide the additional forcing needed to
really kick things off. Model soundings have ample CAPE and DCAPE,
making severe storms and the related strong winds a potential
concern. With the steering flow out of the NE storms may become
stalled or slow moving along the seabreeze causing some additional
localized flooding concerns. The timing and areal coverage of these
storm will play a big part in tomorrows temperature concerns.
Expanded coverage will limit high temps significantly, while if
tomorrows coverage under performs we could see max apparent temps
bump even higher with slightly higher PWATs in place.

A heat advisory will likely be in place again tomorrow, with
convective coverage being the limiting factor on the extent. If you
are planning to be outdoors, stay hydrated, wear light-weight and
light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned
places. Remember to check the backseat of your vehicles for children
and pets.

Thereafter, an influx of dryer air will relax things a bit for the
last half the work week. Then, as the ridging breaks down we will
see a return to more seasonal afternoon thunderstorm activity over
the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

For tonight, clusters of t-storms moving NE to SW attempt to move
over or near ABY/VLD where inherited PROB30s for -TSRA have been
converted to TEMPOs with adjusted timing (3-4Z start) based on
evening radar trends. Lesser confidence maintains PROB30 at TLH,
but moved the timing forward to 5Z. Otherwise, lgt/vrb winds
prevail. For tmrw, high convective coverage over local FL
counties prompted prevailing VCTS at TLH/ECP starting at 18Z and
PROB30s elsewhere (lowest confidence at ABY).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Gentle westerly to northwesterly flow continues through Tuesday.
The sea breeze will turn winds more southwesterly each afternoon.
By the middle of the week, winds turn more easterly as a trough of
low pressure slips south of the marine area, then turning more
southerly and southwesterly late in the week. Seas will be around
1-2 feet through the next several days. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible again beginning tonight, mainly
during the nighttime and morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Transport winds today will primarily be out of the northwest around
5-10 mph, though becoming more westerly near the coast this
afternoon as the sea breeze moves in. Isolated showers and storms
are possible mid to late afternoon along and south of I-10 today,
followed by scattered showers and storms moving in from the
northeast this evening across south Georgia and the Florida Big
Bend. Transport winds become northerly then easterly Tuesday into
Wednesday. Numerous showers and storms are expected Tuesday
afternoon across the area with much lower rain chances Wednesday.
Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near
storms. Outside of storms, dispersions will be good Monday and
Tuesday, then high on Wednesday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

While scattered thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday could pose a
locally heavy rain threat, widespread flood concerns are not
expected over the next 7 days. Nuisance-type flooding of poor
drainage areas is possible if storms move slowly. Action stages
continue on the lower Choctawhatchee the Ochlockonee near Havana.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  95  75  94 /  10  80  30  20
Panama City   79  94  77  92 /   0  80  30  10
Dothan        77  95  75  93 /   0  60  20   0
Albany        78  95  75  93 /  20  40  10   0
Valdosta      77  96  73  94 /  10  50  10  10
Cross City    78  96  73  95 /  10  90  10  30
Apalachicola  80  93  79  90 /   0  70  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys