Dothan, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

537
FXUS62 KTAE 100044
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
844 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms is rolling through
southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening. The
better instability is across Florida and southern Georgia, so
we`ll continue to monitor this line as it pushes east through the
night. Another batch of showers and thunderstorms across Central
Alabama and Georgia should pass mainly north of our Georgia
counties, but it`ll be close. Additional showers and storms are
developing across southern Mississippi and Alabama and are heading
east, so we`ll need to monitor conditions for isolated instances
of Flash Flooding tonight into early Tuesday morning should they
hold together.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

An unsettled pattern of thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday. Our region will be in the base of an upper trough
extending southward from an upper low over the Great Lakes. Within
the base of this trough, we will need to watch for a shortwave
that is crossing LA/MS right now, since it will provide larger-
scale and deeper lift against the backdrop of a very moist and
moderately unstable air mass. So at least two rounds of storms are
expected to fire off over SE MS and SW AL, then move east across
our forecast area through Tuesday morning. Bulk shear in the 20-35
knot range will help organize convection into gusty clusters, as
we have already seen today. In an air mass where PW values are
running as high as 1.9 inches, rainfall rates should be intense,
and any training or backbuilding of storms will not take long to
cause localized flash flooding.

On Tuesday afternoon, the base of the longwave trough starts to
deamplify, and upper heights will start to rise. So Tuesday
afternoon should feature a more seasonably typical inland
thunderstorm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The upper level trough will begin to shift east at the start of
the short term. As this happens, ridging will be able to build
over the Southeast, and a large ridge of high pressure extends
from the Atlantic. However, we will still be under the influence
of high pressure at the surface that will be centered to our
north, pulling in southwesterly flow, keeping our PWATs moist
around 2". That will keep our precip chances elevated for
Wednesday with PoPs ranging 60- 80 percent during the afternoon.
Low level flow (850mb) on Wednesday becomes more westerly, which
will lower our chances for flooding rains due to training storms.
The SPC does not have our area highlighted for severe weather on
Wednesday however, pulse-severe storms will be possible as the
instability and moisture will be present. If storms get strong
enough, potentially damaging wind gusts could be possible.
Temperatures for the short term will be muggy with morning lows in
the low 70s (mid-70 along the immediate coast) with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The heat index will be around
100 degrees across much of the FL Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Upper level ridging extending westward from the Atlantic will
continue through the long term. We will be able to expect south-
southeasterly flow to start the period. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain numerous for the long term however, they will be more
diurnally driven. The upper level support from earlier in the week
will have lifted away from the Southeast. Yet, moisture content
will still be elevated to around 2", keeping daily shower and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast. PoPs average 60-80 percent
each afternoon; however rain totals are limited to around an inch
through the rest of the week. Temperatures for the long term will
have mornings in the low 70s, with mid-70s along the immediate
coast. Afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s with
heat indices around 100. There may be a few pockets of heat
indices reaching advisory criteria (108) this weekend. We will
continue to monitor to see if a heat advisory will be issued when
we get to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving through southern
Alabama this evening and will be nearing KDHN shortly after 00Z to
01Z. This cluster of storms is forecast to dip down towards
Florida and KECP later tonight and eventually make it to KABY and
KTLH, although there is larger than usual uncertainty for those
two sites. Once this cluster of storms fizzles, it remains unclear
as to whether a second one moves through early Tuesday morning. As
a result, did hedge a bit and kept TSRA and/or VCTS in the TAFs a
little while longer at most TAF sites.

Enough moisture and instability are left over Tuesday afternoon
that isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible
Tuesday afternoon along the seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Seas of around 2-3 feet through tomorrow and southwesterly flow
will shift to around to light southeasterly flow by Wednesday with
seas around 1-2 feet heading into the weekend. Daily showers and
thunderstorms can be expected on a diurnal cycle as a surface high
moves northeast toward the Carolinas, and the upper level ridge
extending westward from the Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place this
week. The next 24 hours through Tuesday will feature rounds of
showers and thunderstorms at any hour of the day and night. From
Wednesday on, thunderstorms will favor the more typical afternoon
and evening hours. Though thunderstorm chances will continue each
day this week, the chances will go down a little each day through
Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms today and over the next couple
of days will create concern for river rises. However, our rivers
are in good condition and flooding is not expected. With PWATs
around 2", some storms may produce heavy rainfall which could lead
to localized flash flooding in areas of poor drainage. The WPC
has highlighted the region in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
today and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for tomorrow (Tuesday).

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  88  73  91 /  80  70  30  80
Panama City   76  88  75  88 /  90  70  40  60
Dothan        71  88  70  88 /  80  70  30  70
Albany        70  88  70  89 /  80  70  40  70
Valdosta      73  89  71  92 /  80  70  40  80
Cross City    72  91  71  94 /  40  40  10  80
Apalachicola  76  86  76  86 /  70  60  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery