Dothan, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

132
FXUS62 KTAE 021031
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
631 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way
to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Interestingly, a few
models develop isolated convection across the northeast corner of
the forecast area in association with some weak surface
convergence. Confidence is not high on this, but if convection
were to occur, then gusty convective winds would be possible due
to high DCAPE this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail.
High temperatures will vary across the region with the coolest
temperatures this afternoon along the coast with onshore flow from
the relatively cooler water. Away from the coast, high
temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, with a few upper
80s to near 90 possible across the eastern part of the area.
Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High pressure to our east will keep our weather warm and dry to
start the term. An upper level trough well to our northwest with
an accompanying cold front will create continue the breezy
conditions from Wednesday due to the tight pressure gradient. The
cold front will not approach the region as the upper level support
will be separated from the front, stalling it along the
Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Deep layer ridging off the
east coast of Florida will be strong enough to block the system
through the weekend. Until then, expect warming temperatures with
near record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will
be muggy in the mid to upper 60s.

The pattern changes when a new shortwave trough develops to our
west late this weekend and pushes eastward, as the high pressure
also moves off to the east. This would move the previously
mentioned frontal system over to the eastern third of the U.S. by
Sunday into Monday bringing our next chance for rain, and cooler
temperatures to follow. PoPs range around 50-60 percent Sunday
evening through Monday. Forecast PWATs are about 1.5-2" for this
event, so heavy rainfall is possible. However, the progressiveness
of the front should deter any prolonged flooding from occurring.
Yet, minor urban and low-lying areas could experience flash
flooding. The WPC for Day 5 (Sunday) has highlighted for areas
along and west of the Tifton to Port St Joe line in a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall. From Albany to Panama
City line and west is included in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for
Excessive rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be
expected for these regions from Sunday through Monday. Regarding
any severe weather, the potential is not zero but, the amount of
instability available will be waning as the system moves east
Sunday night into Monday.

Behind the front, drier and cooler air will enter the region with
temperatures cooling to the upper 60s/low 70s for the highs, and
lows will fall to the 50s. There is still much uncertainty
regarding the timing of the front and potential hazards, yet we
will continue to monitor and check back for further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning
across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and
dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning
later today. Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning into
the afternoon with gusts near 20 knots expected. Winds will diminish
again this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Dense fog will remain over the marine zones for several hours
this morning. We can expect fog to develop at times for the next
few days. Southerly flow will increase through the week, leading
to Cautionary level conditions prevailing into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week, outside
of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of
south-central Georgia this afternoon. MinRH values are forecast
to remain above critical thresholds thanks to southerly flow. High
afternoon dispersions are forecast today and Thursday away from
the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Next chance for rain will be late this weekend into the start of
next week. The WPC has highlighted our region in a Marginal (1 of
4) and Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall for Sunday.
Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts
possible. Mainly flash flooding is the concern due to the high
PWATs of nearly 2 inches. This may cause some river rises, however
our rivers are in good condition.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  68  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        88  67  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        88  67  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      90  68  90  67 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    89  67  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  68  77  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ112.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GMZ735.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery