000
FXUS66 KSTO 162057
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
157 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024


.Synopsis...
Dry and milder weather through the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear and dry conditions prevail across interior NorCal
this afternoon. A few passing high clouds are being observed in
the northern Sacramento Valley, but otherwise sunny and mild
conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the day.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to
upper 70s for the Valley, with cooler mid 50s to mid 60s for the
higher elevations.

Upper level ridging will continue to be the dominant synoptic
pattern through the remainder of the week. High clouds will remain
possible, thanks to a system moving well north of our area, but no
precipitation is expected for the area. As the upper level ridging
continues to build and control the overall weather pattern,
afternoon high temperatures will continue to climb as we move
through the work week. On Wednesday, temperatures across the
Valley will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s, then on Thursday
and Friday more widespread readings of low 80s are likely. This
will place most of NorCal in temperatures that are around 5-10
degrees higher than climatological normal.

Breezy northerly winds may develop Wednesday morning in the wake
of a weak/dry short-wave moving through the PacNW. The National
Blend of Models suggests around a 20-50% probability of wind gusts
of 25 mph or more, mainly along the I-5 corridor from Sacramento
northward. Northerly winds should subside in the afternoon to
around 5-10 mph for the rest of the day.

Wood

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...

Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis still favor upper level
ridging as the main feature over much of the extended forecast
period, bringing continued warm and dry weather, although there is
still some uncertainty in the clusters mainly early next week on
the exact upper level pattern. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
currently suggests daytime high temperatures generally in the 70s
to low 80s for the Valley, with upper 60s to near 80 in the
foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains this weekend into early
next week, which would be trending above the climatological
normal for the third week of April. Mild overnight low
temperatures are also expected. Slightly cooler highs are
currently forecast on Tuesday as ensembles and clusters hint at
some weak offshore troughing, with temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s for the Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal this afternoon.
Surface winds generally below 10 knots. Breezy northerly winds
around 20 knots may develop around 15Z Wednesday, mainly for
northern Sacramento Valley TAF sites.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$