Novi, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

235
FXUS63 KDTX 290707
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
307 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasingly hot and humid conditions develop today, with peak
afternoon heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s.

- Extreme Heat Watch in effect Tuesday to Thursday with highs
reaching the mid-upper 90s to 100 degrees and heat indices in excess
of 105 degrees each day. There will be little nighttime relief with
lows in the mid 70s each night.

- Hot and humid conditions extend into Friday and the holiday
weekend with potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Prolonged high magnitude heat episode set to grip the region
throughout the upcoming work week. Early morning surface analysis
shows a northeastward propagating warm frontal boundary draped
across the northern Ohio valley, marking the lead edge of a deeper
moisture plume projected to steadily advect into lower Michigan over
the next 24 hours. This upward adjustment in low level moisture
quality occurs within the backdrop of substantial growth in the
upper height field with time, as the northern expanse of an
expanding 594 dam upper level high pressure system dominates across
the eastern/southern conus. Likelihood for some degree of higher
based cloud to exist at times today, as decaying areas of convection
originating from northeast Wi drift southeast along the advancing
theta-e gradient. Generally weak, ill-defined ascent exists locally,
but the advective process may prove sufficient to generate/sustain a
lower coverage of garden variety convection. Confidence in
occurrence remains quite low, with general model consensus offering
chances at less than 20 percent through this evening. With this
said, some disruption to the diurnal heating process remains
possible. A notable step up in both temperature and humidity
expected with time today, bringing highs into the 90 to 94 degree
range. NBM projection of dewpoint appears a touch aggressive for the
daylight hours, considering low level flow still features greater
influence from the southeast until this evening. Slight downward
revision in expected heat index as a result, but with readings still
solidly peaking briefly in the mid to upper 90s most locations
/highest west of I-75/.

The multi-day heat wave will see a peak in intensity across the
Tuesday through Thursday window, as the sprawling, anomalous
subtropical ridge centers just south of the region and effectively
maintains a core of 850 mb temperatures within the 23 to 25C range.
Widespread ambient highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected, with
some locations making a run at 100 degrees. The oppressive humidity
as dewpoints remain in the low to mid 70s will drive peak afternoon
heat index values to between 105 and 110 degrees. Minimal overnight
cooling is forecast. Lows will struggle to drop below the mid to
upper 70s, with some areas within the metro urban heat island near
80 degrees overnight. Extremely low convective potential during this
period, owing to strong mid-level capping and robust subsidence
within the influence of upper ridging, with a storm track still
favored to hold just to the north and west. An extreme heat watch
remains in effect for this time.

Heat will remain elevated Friday and into the upcoming weekend.
Magnitude of the warmth becomes less certain as upper ridging
influence relaxes as upper heights gradually dampen with time, while
convective potential increases as prospective shortwaves begin to
work across the northern periphery of the suppressing heat dome.
Medium-range ensemble guidance indicates the upper-level ridge axis
will anchor itself over the southern US/Ohio Valley, keeping Lower
Michigan warmer and more humid than average heading into the second
week of July.

&&

.MARINE...

A strong low over the northern Plains will pull a warm front up
through the region on Monday. Winds will veer more out of the
southeast by morning. This will hold through today as gusts reach 20
knots across Lake Huron. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon along the front
especially across the north half of Lake Huron. By Tuesday morning,
winds will have become southwesterly while again topping out around
20 knots. Though the gradient increases, stability also increases
under a very warm airmass which will limit gust potential.

&&

.CLIMATE...

.Daily Records for the Upcoming Week...

Detroit
                Record High       Record Warm Minimum
Mon June 29       96 (1933)            77 (1945)
Tue June 30       96 (1931)            76 (2018)
Wed July 1        98 (1931)            80 (1931)
Thu July 2        99 (2011)            76 (2018)
Fri July 3       100 (1911)            78 (1911)
Sat July 4       102 (2012)            79 (1921)

Flint
                Record High       Record Warm Minimum
Mon June 29      100 (1934)            75 (1945)
Tue June 30       98 (1933)            76 (2018)
Wed July 1       102 (1931)            72 (2018)
Thu July 2       100 (1931)            73 (2002)
Fri July 3        99 (1921)            73 (1983)
Sat July 4       102 (1921)            76 (1999)

Saginaw
                Record High       Record Warm Minimum
Mon June 29      100 (1971)            75 (1971)
Tue June 30       99 (1964)            77 (2018)
Wed July 1       103 (1931)            78 (1931)
Thu July 2       100 (1931)            73 (2002)
Fri July 3        99 (1966)            76 (1974)
Sat July 4        97 (2012)            75 (2012)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

AVIATION...

Decaying convection over west MI late this evening is expected to
fully decay before reaching SE MI due to the dry near surface
airmass. As such, main impacts will be mid/high cloud (>10kft)
sliding across the area into Monday morning. Winds shift to the
south this morning as a warm front quickly lifts through the region
ushering in a significantly more hotter/humid airmass. Another area
of decaying convection is forecast to drop along the front into the
Saginaw Valley mid/late morning. Confidence in how well (and how far
south) this activity survives is still quite low so will only
maintain a Prob30 for MBS. There is some model signal for a couple
hour period Monday evening for widely scattered high based showers
though again confidence is very low in occurrence as well as
sufficient coverage for mention.

D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms are forecast through Monday
with storms Monday morning favored to decay north of the airspace
over central lower MI.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......DRK
CLIMATE......MV
AVIATION.....KDK

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