Ellicott City, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

225
FXUS61 KLWX 020756
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build over the area through Tuesday,
before sliding east Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
remain below normal today, but a quick warming trend will occur
mid week, with above normal temperatures expected. A low
pressure system will approach the region toward the end of the
week, which will be the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Yet another chilly early June morning out there this morning as
little/no cloud cover and light winds lead to ideal conditions
for radiational cooling. Current lows in the rural areas and
sheltered valleys are in the mid 40s for most, and we will
likely drop a few more degrees prior to sunrise. So, remaining
on track for low 40s in spots. The mountains are quite chilly,
dropping into the 30s already. Frost Advisory remains in effect
for the Allegheny Front zones as a result. This will be the last
night with temperatures this chilly, as a warming trend is
expected in the coming days.

An area of high pressure continues to build towards the region
in the wake of this past weekend`s cold front. The trough is
very evident on water vapor imagery, and it is still going to
have some influence on temperatures today. While we will remain
dry, and a bit warmer than yesterday, the trough being nearby
will keep us still a few degrees below normal. Highs will reach
the lower to middle 70s widespread with cooler temperatures in
the mountains.

As a ridge begins to move overhead, Monday night`s lows will be
several degrees warmer than tonight`s lows and dropping into
the upper 40s to lower 50s. No frost concerns are expected for
our mountain zones as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While Tuesday remains dry due to high pressure, highs will be
much warmer on average across the region when compared to
Monday`s highs. This is due to the upper-level ridge building
across the region, as well as high pressure shifting offshore,
turning winds out of the south. Afternoon highs will reach the
lower to middle 80s.

Tuesday night`s low temperatures will be much milder than
Monday night with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

This pattern will continue into Wednesday, though becoming even
warmer. Many areas could even approach 90 degrees, but most will
hang around the mid-upper 80s. One big change on Wednesday will
be the humidity levels, which jump substantially. While not
oppressive by any means, especially for June, it will be much
less comfortable than we have seen in a while.

Overnight lows on Wednesday will be quite mild, only dropping
into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the region is forecast to start break down
on Thursday as high pressure at the surface slowly shifts off-shore.
Above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies are likely to
continue on Thursday with most of the region potentially
breaking the 90 degree mark.

Model and ensemble guidance has the ridge finally breaking on Friday
with a brief zonal flow forecast to settle over the region. Guidance
has a split flow over the eastern seaboard with the dominate flow
over the plains region and east through the Great Lakes. A weaker
southern flow is forecast to be located over the southeast US. A
shortwave moving through the northern flow may combine with an
increasing unstable environment due to daytime heating to produce
some showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A coastal low currently
forecast to form along along a weak surface trough along the eastern
seaboard may bring additional chances for precipitation to the
southern parts of our region.

A more widespread threat for showers and strong thunderstorms is
favored on Saturday as an upper level trough drops into the NE US
with it`s attending cold front approaching the region from the west.
The combination of a destabilizing environment due to afternoon
heating and warm air advection along with forcing as the cold front
passes through the region will lead to an increased threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Models are hinting that the front could stall near our region on
Sunday and remain nearby becoming the focus for continued chances of
showers and thunderstorms moving into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Tuesday night with high
pressure in control. Some high elevated smoke from Canadian
wildfires may be present off and on throughout the period.
Winds will remain light and variable through tonight, before
becoming light out of the south on Tuesday.

VFR conditions and light south winds will prevail Wednesday through
Thursday as high pressure slides to the east. A shower or
thunderstorm could approach MRB later Thursday as heat and
humidity builds. There`s a higher chance for thunderstorms
Friday but still uncertainty with how much of the area is
affected due to the timing of an approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light and variable through Tuesday night as
high pressure moves overhead and eventually offshore by late
Tuesday.

Southerly flow will begin to increase in intensity by Wednesday
through Friday with high pressure off the coast. WInds should
remain below SCA criteria during the day, as air temps will be
much warmer than water temperatures. However, as temperatures
cool closer to the water temperatures during the evening and
overnight periods, the pattern becomes favorable for southerly
channeling along the bay Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights.
SCAs may be needed at times during this period.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ509.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ503.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...CJL/JMG
MARINE...CJL