Caribou, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS61 KCAR 142328
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
728 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through Sunday while
weak low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well
south of our region. High pressure will slide east of the area
Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will pass north of the area on
Wednesday, with another low approaching from the west Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update (MS):
Adjustments were made to low temperatures, generally down a
couple degrees, based on model biases from last night and cloud
cover trends. With crossover temperatures expected to be reached
across coastal and Downeast Maine, patchy fog was added to the
forecast from about midnight through 12z across Downeast Maine.
Visible satellite imagery also shows that high clouds are
slower to move into the area and diurnal cumulus are
dissipating, so the sky cover forecast was lowered. This trend
will also support the lowering of temperatures and development
of radiational fog. Bodies of water further inland may see
localized fog formation as well around daybreak, but those
details are not included in the forecast grids.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure over Northern Maine will slowly move east tonight.
Cumulus clouds will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.
With light winds, this will initially make for favorable
radiational cooling conditions this evening. Clouds increase
later tonight from southwest to northeast, which will limit the
cooling. Thus, not expecting temperatures as cool as last night
in the North. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s across
most of Northern and Eastern Maine. Some colder valleys in
Aroostook County could see upper 30s if skies stay clear long
enough. That said, no frost concerns tonight.

High pressure will mostly remain in control for Sunday. However,
a weak upper-level disturbance could bring isolated showers from
the Central Highlands northward in the afternoon. Otherwise,
expect partly to mostly sunny skies. 850mb temperatures rise to
5-7 degrees Celsius on Sunday. This will support highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s inland. Southerly winds will keep Coastal
Downeast in the lower to mid 60s. The immediate coast and outer
islands could stay in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern Sunday night into Monday, as the ridge axis begins to
shift eastward into early next week. Even still, mostly clear
skies will continue. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night
could lead to a strong radiational cooling night, with low
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 40s overnight. For
the day on Monday, this pattern will continue a warming trend
as temperatures lift into the low to mid 70s across the
forecast area on Monday.

Zonal flow aloft will be the primary driver of the synoptic
pattern through the early week. With this flow, weak
disturbances will be ushered quickly into the area, with a
surface trough of low pressure approaching from the west Monday
night and moving into the CWA on Tuesday. This disturbance will
bring the next chance for rain, particularly across the north,
and there could be just enough instability building in by
Tuesday afternoon for a few thunderstorms to develop. The
warming trend will persist, with temperatures lifting into the
mid to upper 70s throughout the forecast area on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow continues through the middle of the week, with
shortwaves continuing to push up through New England through the
end of the week. For Wednesday, the warming trend is likely to
continue still, though there is a bit more uncertainty for how
much temperatures will warm as compared to earlier in the week,
depending on how widespread rain showers develop across the
area.

A more robust surface low pressure could begin to move into the
forecast area on Thursday, with upper level support from the
right entrance region of a jet streak sitting just north of the
state. With more significant support and the first half of the
week priming the region with warm air and increased low and mid
level moisture, there could be some increased support for
thunderstorm development throughout the CWA. That said, there is
still plenty to be determined: global deterministic models are
all in disagreement for not only when the low will move through,
but also how far north or south the low will track. Inspecting
ensemble member plots further, the GEFS members appear to be in
great disagreement with each other. EPS members are in a bit
better agreement with each other, bringing the low in late
Thursday, while the Canadian ensemble members are in some
agreement with each other, but much earlier than the EPS. If the
low moves through Thursday afternoon, there could be enough
instability and shear for some stronger thunderstorms. If the
low waits until Thursday night or early Friday, this might be
more of a scattered shower event. And if the trough does not dig
as far south, more of the area may remain dry at the end of the
week.

Yet another short wave could move through the area on Saturday,
though there is much to be seen about how this low would follow
the previous low, which as stated above currently has some
uncertainty for how it will play out.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions tonight and Sunday at all
terminals. Moderate (70 percent) probability of fog and IFR/LIFR
ceilings/visibility at BHB later tonight into the early morning
hours. Low (20 percent) probability of IFR ceilings/visibility
with BCFG at BGR late tonight into early Sunday morning. VCSH is
likely for GNR northeastward to MLT, CAR, PQI, and HUL Sunday
PM. Light and variable winds, becoming S 5-10 kts late Sunday.


SHORT TERM:
Sun night - Mon night: VFR across all terminals, with mostly SKC
Sun night becoming SCT VFR on Mon. SW winds up to 5 kts.

Tues - Tues night: MVFR cigs building in from south to north,
falling further towards IFR late Tues night. S winds 5 to 10
kts. Chance for thunder at northern terminals Tues afternoon.

Wed: MVFR/IFR continues with rain showers at all terminals, and
a slight chance for thunder at northern terminals. SW winds 5 to
10 kts with gusts to 20 kts, especially around any
thunderstorms.

Wed night: MVFR with lingering rain showers across most
terminals. SW winds around 5 kts.


Thurs: MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds 5 to 10
kts gusting to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft
Advisory criteria tonight and Sunday.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft
advisory levels through the middle of the upcoming week. Some
patchy fog Sunday night into early Monday morning could limit
visibility.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/MStrauser
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Clark/MStrauser/AStrauser
Marine...Clark/AStrauser