Caribou, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS61 KCAR 031702
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1202 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide south of the area today and remain to
our south on Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Tuesday night
into Wednesday...track northwest of the area Wednesday night
into Thursday...and continue into Eastern Canada on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1159 am update...Sunshine continues and the morning inversion
slowly decays. No change to afternoon highs. Temps will drop off
quickly this evening with lows occurring not to long after
midnight. A weak shortwave approaches Tuesday afternoon and
promises to set off scattered snow showers across the North
Woods and northern Aroostook by afternoon.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will build along the East Coast today as surface
ridging extends northeast across our area. Cold air is in place
across the region and today will remain very cold with highs
from the teens north to the low 20s Downeast. However, winds
will be lighter with high pressure nearby to the south.

High pressure will gradually move off the East Coast tonight. A
return flow behind the high will channel slightly warmer and
more moist air north toward our area. This will begin to develop
a warm frontal boundary across the area late tonight bringing
increasing cloudiness in from the west. This evening will begin
clear followed by increasing cloudiness late tonight. The
increasing clouds and a light southwesterly flow behind the high
will result in tonight not being as cold. A few light snow
showers or flurries may stray into the northwest late tonight.
Lows from near zero north to the single digits and teens
Downeast will likely be reached around midnight before some late
night moderation as the clouds move in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
Warm advection and increasing/thickening clouds from the west
with zonal flow over the area. Mainly over north, can`t rule out
some light snow breaking out thanks to the warm advection and
increasing moisture. If any snow does accumulate, it should be
less than an inch. Went with chance PoPs for now, as only some
models have measurable precip in the north for Tuesday. Expect
Downeast to remain dry. High temperatures will be about 15
degrees warmer than Monday, with highs ranging from the low 30s
north to upper 30s along the coast.

Tuesday Night...
Warm advection aloft continues, with temps nearly steady through
the night. A chance of light precipitation areawide. Heading
through the night, the airmass aloft rises to above freezing,
bringing the threat for freezing rain from roughly
Houlton/Greenville south to Bangor/Calais (further north it
should still be cold enough aloft for snow, and along the coast
surface temps should be just above freezing). Thankfully, if any
precipitation does occur Tuesday night, it looks light and less
than a tenth of an inch in liquid equivalent. That said, it
doesn`t take much freezing rain to cause travel issues, so will
need to keep a close watch. Any snow accumulations over the
north should be less than an inch.

Wednesday...
Moisture continues to increase from the west/southwest as low
pressure system approaches. Look for steadier precipitation to
develop through the day. With a warmer airmass continuing to
move in, look for precipitation transitioning to plain rain from
south to north, with plain rain even in the far north by about
sunset. However, will have to watch for potential freezing rain
central/northern areas mainly in the morning before everywhere
gets to freezing at the surface. Not expecting the freezing rain
to be any more than about a tenth of an inch, but that still
could be enough for travel concerns, plus we will be coming out
of a cold spell and icy travel will likely persist a few hours
after surface air temps rise above freezing. Light snow
accumulations generally less than an inch are possible over the
north before the changeover.

Wednesday Night...
Rising temps and increasing winds Wednesday night as we get a
decent low level jet and good southerly push with the warm
sector becoming firmly entrenched over the area ahead of the
approaching low pressure system from the west. Precipitation
type will be plain rain, and moderate rain at that, as airmass
will be quite mild. Some question as to how much winds mix down,
especially with the snowcover. Potential exists for advisory
level winds along the coast with gusts possibly to 45 mph. Think
the winds will be not as strong inland, especially given the
snowcover, but it will still be breezy from the south. With the
temps easily above freezing and the melting, wet snowpack,
advection fog, perhaps dense, is a threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Steadier rain moves off to the east Thursday and winds weaken.
Cold advection doesn`t really kick in until Thursday night, so
it will still be quite mild Thursday with highs in the mid 40s
to low 50s. Expect significant snowpack loss and possible hydro
issues central/south. See hydrology section below for more info.

Cold advection kicks in Thursday night into Friday, though
airmass moving in isn`t terribly cold. Temperatures during the
day Friday will be fairly steady in the mid 20s to low 30s, and
it will be breezy from the west. Most likely there will be just
a chance of snow showers. However, a few ensemble solutions have
a rapidly intensify low pressure system close enough to our
east to bring a burst of heavier snow, or rain changing to
snow. Something to keep an eye on, but most models have this
happening far enough east of us to have little impact.

From Friday night into the weekend, look for cool NW flow with
perhaps a few snow showers, but nothing major.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12 pm update...VFR continues into Tuesday afternoon with the
exception of some MVFR cigs developing north of HUL and GNR in
the morning and tempo IFR in snow showers for CAR and FVE.

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. Winds
light W today and light SW tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday...VFR, likely dropping to MVFR north of HUL and GNR.
VFR south. SW wind 10 kts.

Tuesday night...MVFR with possible IFR north. VFR/MVFR south.
Light freezing rain possible from BGR north to GNR/MLT/HUL.
Light SW wind.

Wednesday...IFR/LIFR. Freezing rain possible in the morning,
becoming all rain at all sites by Wed evening. Southeast wind
5 to 15 kt. LLWS possible late.

Wednesday night...LIFR due to cigs and fog. South winds 15 to
25 kt. LLWS likely.

Thursday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR south in the
afternoon. SE wind 10 kts

Thursday night...Generally IFR due to cigs and rain, possibly
changing to snow late. Variable winds becoming NW 10 to 15 kts
late.

Friday...Cigs and vis trending up from IFR early morning towards
VFR by afternoon. Winds trending up with west winds gusting to
30 kt by midday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will drop below SCA this morning and remain
below SCA today and tonight. A freezing spray advisory will
remain up for early this morning. Seas over the offshore waters
will run 3 to 4 ft early this morning, dropping to 2 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: Southerly gales likely Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Seas building to around 12 feet Wednesday
night/Thursday. NW gales likely Friday/Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Models are in strong agreement for midweek for a significant
rain and snowmelt event. General model consensus showing higher
probability of 1 to 2 inches of rain falling onto a snowpack
that is ripening in portions of Downeast Maine into the southern
Central Highlands. Latest analysis from NOHRSC combined with
surface observations shows a snowpack of 4-10 inches with
generally 0.75 to 2 inches of SWE within that pack for Downeast
Maine. Across the Central Highlands the pack ranges from 7-14
inches with 2 to 4 inches of SWE within the pack. Across
northern Maine including the Moosehead Region, the pack ranges
from 10-25 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 30-35
inches. The SWE values across Northern Maine are generally 3 to
5 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 8 inches.

NOHRSC analysis shows the snowpack temperature across Northern
Maine and the Central Highlands is quite cold and very unlikely
to melt much.  It will absorb any rainfall and compact.

Across interior and coastal Downeast Maine including the Bangor
region the snowpack is 28-32F which means the pack is near or
is "ripe". A ripe snowpack will discharge when rainfall falls
into the pack especially combined with prolonged T+Td >32F and
gusty warm winds, which are all expected. The ground is
completely frozen in these areas, and in some places 2 ft deep,
so no ground absorption will occur with this event. The
potential exists to completely discharge 0.75 to 2 inches of SWE
with total snowpack loss combining with the falling rainfall
creating significant runoff. Many of the rivers have solid ice
conditions with ice thickness varying between a few inches to a
foot or more.

Thermal/mechanical breakup of the ice is very possible in
Downeast areas resulting in the potential for ice jams. This is
supported by combined T/Td thawing degree hours reaching 700 to
900 during the warm up. These values are well associated with
ice jams historically.

Across much of the Central Highlands and northern Maine there
is little or no threat of ice movement with this event. This is
also supported by combined T/Td thawing degree hours below
threshold commonly associated with ice break up.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/MCW
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Bloomer/MCW/Foisy
Marine...Bloomer/MCW/Foisy
Hydrology...