Caribou, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

574
FXUS61 KCAR 240712
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
212 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the coast will pull away to the southeast today as
high pressure builds over the region. A small area of low pressure
will cross the north Christmas morning followed by high
pressure building in Thursday night into Friday. High pressure
will remain over the area Saturday into Sunday followed by low
pressure on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The low off the coast which has produced a concentrated area of
moderate to heavy snow in an inverted trough over the Midcoast
region will pull away to the southeast today as the trough drops to
the south. This will allow any lingering snow to taper off this
morning followed by partial clearing late today as high pressure
builds over.

High pressure will remain over the area tonight. The evening will
begin partly cloudy then clouds will then increase late tonight
ahead of a shortwave trough dropping down from the northwest.
This trough will support a small low tracking across the
northern parts of our region Christmas morning and continuing
down to the southeast during the afternoon. This will bring some
light snow over the north through the morning with up to 2
inches possible over much of the region and slightly less to the
west. Christmas afternoon will remain mostly cloudy with some
snow showers across the north. A northwest wind will increase
late Thursday as the gradient tightens behind departing low
pressure and ahead of high pressure building in from the west.
This may produce some patchy blowing snow over open areas late
in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message...
1) Strong northwest winds will produce wind chill temps down around
20 below zero across the north Friday morning
2) Temps on Friday night to drop below zero across the north

Key Message 1...
Cold arctic air will plunge into the area in the wake of a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. Min temps will drop to near zero
acrs the north, with below zero temps over the North Woods. H9
temps toward -22C in this area by Friday morning. H9 winds
between 30-40kts throughout the overnight and with subsidence
inversion setting up, the top of the mixed layer tops out right
around 900mb. NBM was too low with sustained winds over land
Thursday night and had to blend in the 90th percentile for
winds, which look to be much more reasonable. This gives wind
gusts anywhere between 30 to 40 mph and will likely result in
patchy blowing and drifting snow.

Wind chill temps likely to drop to around minus 20 acrs the north.
Cannot rule out the need for a Cold Weather Advisory if the
sustained wind is stronger than presently forecast and if temps
are several degrees colder. Either way, it will be a pretty raw
night to be outside if not bundled up.

Key Message 2...
Surface high pressure will be cresting over the area on Friday night.
Winds will be fairly light, decoupling over the valleys. Mins are
forecast to drop below zero over the north and in the single digits
elsewhere. Sky cover remains in question as system drops thru the OH
Valley and moves off of the mid-Atlantic coast late Friday night. Mostly
clear skies are expected Friday evening before high cirrus moves in from
the west over western areas. How quickly this moves in will determine
how low temps can drop. Gut feeling is that temps can be knocked down
by a few more degrees with radn/l cooling conditions expected under
a 2-3 inch snowpack established on Christmas Day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Potential significant winter storm early next week

Key Message 1...
The big story in the long term is another winter storm moving in
early next week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has been
very consistent on advertising a significant storm in the week
between Christmas and New Years. Medium range guidance shows H5
trof moving onto the west coast by the end of this week and
amplifying as it crosses the Rockies over the weekend.
Differences remain in how quickly it closes off in the Great
Lakes and how deep it becomes as it heads into northeast U.S.
This ultimately will determine the track and timing of sfc low
approaching the CWA and if secondary cyclogenesis can occur over
the Gulf of Maine, as most guidance is alluding to. 00z
guidance has trended slower by about 6 hours with bulk of the
snow not starting until late Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
IFR to MVFR conditions over the south and MVFR to VFR conditions
over the north will improve to VFR, around midday north and late
today over the south. VFR conditions tonight will lower to MVFR
to IFR conditions Christmas morning. Conditions will improve to
VFR south but may remain MVFR over the north Christmas
afternoon. Light north winds today becoming light and variable
tonight then increasing out of the northwest on Christmas day.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night-Friday...VFR. NW 10-20kts with gusts to 30-35 kts
into Friday morning.

Friday night-Sunday...VFR. NNW 5kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A gale warning will be up today for east winds gusting up to 35
kt. Winds will drop below gale this afternoon then drop below
SCA tonight. Winds will increase from the northwest Christmas
day reaching gale late in the day. Seas up to 8 ft today then 5
ft tonight and Christmas day.

SHORT TERM: Gale conditions over all waters Thursday night with
northwest winds gusting to around 45kts. Gales drop off over
the intracoastal zone Friday morning and over the outer waters
late Friday morning. Expect winds aoa 25kts through Friday
evening before diminishing under high pressure through the end
of the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MEZ003>005-
     010-011-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...MB/21
Marine...MB/21