Youngsville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS64 KLCH 150535
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A tropical wave will move inland near the TX/MX line late today
  or early Saturday. Tropical moisture moving up the coastline
  will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
  today through the weekend. Otherwise, no tropical impacts.

- Away from rainfall and clouds, temperatures will warm into the
  mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices ranging 103 to 107F.

- A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of
  the week, limiting rain chances and allowing high temps to
  settle in the mid to upper 90s each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Several features will play a part in the short term period: upper
weakness moving away, high pressure ridging in from the east and
tropical wave, 98L, moving into the west Gulf.

Upper weakness lifting into the Ohio River Valley will allow for
further development of high pressure to the east. At the same
time, sfc high now moving into the east Gulf will aid in the
northwesterly track of 98L today and tonight. While the tropical
wave appears more organized tonight, it has a very short shelf
life remaining before moving inland somewhere near the TX/MX
border. There is a 50 % chance that a very short-lived tropical
cyclone develops.

Due to the proximity and strength of the high, this system is very
tightly contained, thus, no tropical hazards or impacts will occur
within the forecast area.

This wave should assist with keeping high pressure at bay today and
somewhat tomorrow, resulting in elevated rain chances. A very
minor slug of tropical moisture is expected to work up the
coastline, sending an airmass with PWATs 2.10 to 2.25" into the
area. This moisture flux combined with diurnal processes should
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and again Saturday. Any cells that develop will consist
of heavy downpours and frequent lightning, with some stronger
cells causing damaging winds.

High pressure really takes hold aloft on Sunday. Within lingering
moisture, a more-typical summertime day of isolated to scattered
rain chances will be possible.

Although they`ll be marginal, heights will rise over the region
today through the weekend. This will bring about some warming temps.
Highs in the mid 90s can be expected, although with increased rain
chances and cloud cover, perhaps the hottest heat will only last a
few minutes. As such, it is not expected that we will hit Heat
Advisory criteria at this time.

11/Calhoun


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the long term, expect some variation in convective coverage day
to day as the high meanders around the southeast US and as upper
pressure fields relax. Isolated to widely scattered summertime
storms will be the name of the game each day.

As afternoon school time activities return to the norm, always be
mindful of area storms. If you hear thunder, you are within the
range of lightning striking. Outside of thunderstorms, be very
mindful of the heat!

Temps will push into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices likely
running in the 103 to 107F range each day.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas of fog may develop through the morning in response to
widespread heavy rainfall received Thursday. No dense fog is
expected. Expecting a similar playbook today as seen Thursday.
Tropical moisture moving up the east coast of Texas in response to
98L will take advantage of daytime heating and weakness overhead,
allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop.

Storms will carry frequent lightning, very heavy downpours and
gusty, volatile winds.

By late evening, storms should come to a close with the loss of
daytime heating. Only a few may linger into the 00 to 06z timeframe,
but it is unknown at this time if any terminals will be impacted
after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Weakness overhead and tropical wave moving near the west Gulf will
keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
today and Saturday. As the wave moves inland near TX/MX, some
localized increases in seas and winds can be expected for western
waters. Due to the small nature of the wave, most impacts will be
very tightly contained to south Texas.

Typical summertime pattern including low winds and seas will prevail
thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

An airmass of slightly more humid air is expected to move into
southeast TX and south LA today in response to tropical wave moving
inland at TX/MX. Combined with weakness present overhead, another
round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be
expected today with scattered rain chances Saturday. Storms will
consist of frequent lightning, very heavy downpours and gusty winds.

High pressure ridges into the region from the east into the late
weekend bringing about a more-typical pattern of hot weather with
isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  74  96  74 /  40  10  40  10
LCH  93  78  94  76 /  60  10  50  10
LFT  93  77  94  76 /  60  10  50  10
BPT  92  77  94  76 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11