Luling, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

252
FXUS64 KLIX 251915
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
215 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
  90s will occur next week. Heat index values will climb into the
  upper 90s.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some possible strong to severe
  will continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

It was a rather active morning across the region with a few severe
thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Overall most of the damage
reports we have received or found has been in Harrison county, MS
with numerous impressive wind gust measurements, especially over
the water, Ship Island had a recorded gust of 75 mph (possible
waterspout) and GPT recorded a wind gust of 68 mph. Both of these
were associated with the same storm that prompted a tornado
warning over Harrison and the Special Marine Warning over MS
Sound.

For the remainder of the afternoon we have been closely watching
for the redevelopment of storms as the trailing edge of the line
this morning held up over the Atchafalaya basin and once we start
to heat up we will likely begin to see storms develop near the
boundary which includes the river parishes. This would likely
start to retreat slowly to the northeast and could see a few
potent storms move towards the Southshore with a risk of locally
heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and possibly large
hail from any severe storm. We are already fairly unstable over
SELA and only thing we are waiting on is some possible trigger to
get a few storms to pop.

The biggest question is what occur overnight tonight and into
tomorrow. There is the possibility we could see almost a repeat of
this morning but like last night and this morning a lot will
depend on what occurs upstream. We will need to closely monitor
convection over southeast Ok and north-central and northeast TX.
This is expected to consolidate into an MCS again tonight and
unlike last night the pattern become a little more typical of
getting MCS`s to surge southeast as we slowly transition to WNW
and possibly even NW flow by early morning. If an MCS gets going
to our northwest the steering currents are more favorable to drive
it this way. The one thing that is a little weaker than last
night and this morning is synoptically and dynamically things
aren`t quite as impressive as last night. The upper level
diffluence is much weaker however we will have the LFQ of the
upper jet. The H85 theta e ridge doesn`t look as prevalent as this
morning but there may be a theta e axis southwest to northeast
again from near southeast TX into western MS. That would allow any
MCS to maintain itself up to our doorstep and that could be
enough as it looks like there may be another impulse moving
southeast down the building ridge in the northwest flow across the
region with mid lvl winds increasing to 35 to 40 kts which is
just about where the mid lvl winds increased to this morning. Much
like last night we will be fairly unstable with MLCape of
1200-1500 j/KG possibly higher which we were this morning as
models underestimated the instability a touch for that time frame.


Currently we have medium confidence in the forecast given some
uncertainty and waiting for convection to still develop.
Expecting another MCS tonight moving into the around around 8/9z
and like this morning moving southeast through the CWA possibly
exiting the area around 15/16z. Obviously strong to severe storms
would be expected with this with damaging winds, frequent cloud
to ground lightning, locally heavy rain, and few brief tornadoes
possible once again. Convection should end early in the day and
after that not anticipating any redevelopment as the ridge starts
to quickly build in. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

No major changes in the thinking for the extended. Medium range
ensemble means and their op runs overall continue to remain in
fairly good agreement with decent continuity and consistency. It
looks like the second half of the work week could be a little
active and a far cry from the first half of the week. We begin
hot, possibly record breaking, and dry. Then by Wednesday and into
next weekend we could see multiple rounds of storms and maybe a
weak cold front drifting south into the area by the weekend.
Latest NBM in fairly good agreement with the guidance and with
no major discrepancies and questions no deviations to the NBM
occurred.

After a hot day on Monday, Tuesday will be practically a carbon
copy but after Tuesday we will see things shift once again. In the
mid lvl the ridge dominating the area Monday will continue to do
so on Tuesday but will already begin to see the northern
periphery of it erode as we tap into a persistent sub-tropical jet
in the eastern Pac. Tuesday will be hot and could challenge a few
records. H5 hghts around 587/588 dm will be in the top 10% for
this time of year and with h925 temps around 23-25 C highs will
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday and throughout the rest of the week we will see
multiple impulses move across the southern Plains, Lower MS
Valley and southeastern CONUS. With each successive impulse the
ridge will get suppressed more and more until we start seeing the
impulses come across our area which could be as early as Thursday
night/Fri. At the sfc high pressure high pressure will remain
centered to the east and dominate the Gulf through Wednesday but
by Thursday we may actually see a weak boundary/front drift south
into the region. This front will be parallel to the mid level flow
which is why it will be fairly slow to move but with successive
impulses, maybe every 18 hours, leading to a rounds of convection
with each, that rain cooled air and increase in subsidence behind
and to the north of the rain will help nudge the boundary down
into our area and that could be as early as Friday. Rain chances
will begin to increase Wednesday especially for the northern half
of the area but it looks like be Friday and into the weekend rain
chances will increase across the entire area. One thing we may
need to watch closely, with a boundary running east west
practically on top of the area and zonal flow aloft with multiple
impulses locally heavy rain could become an issue. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

After convection finally moved through terminals quickly improved
and by 16/17z all terminals were in VFR or MVFR status. The main
problem at this time is cigs around 2300-3k ft but that could
quickly change as impacts will likely being to increase at a few
terminals. We are anticipating isolated to scattered convection to
quickly fire this afternoon and any terminals that are impacted
by these storms will at least see MVFR status if not IFR and
possibly LIFR. All terminals will have the potential to see TSRA
but MCB has the least with the MSY/NEW/HDC having the greatest
potential for more significant impacts. Convection will quickly
dissipate this evening and all terminals will be back in VFR
status but that may be short lived as low cigs around 2-3 kt feet
may impact some terminals after 6z then there is the risk of
another round of convection from a second MCS dropping down into
the area early in the morning tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

This early Summer like pattern will continue through the rest of
the weekend and first half of the work week. With that the
persistent south-southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in
place over that time. Seas will remain well below any hazardous
limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. The greatest concern
over the marine areas at this time is showers and thunderstorms. A
few more rounds of storms will be possible, one this afternoon
and the second early tomorrow through midday. With any storm
locally higher winds and seas will be possible. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB