Lafayette, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS64 KLCH 131756
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
  in response to an upper trough.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather and a Marginal
  Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall are in effect today
  due to a convective complex forecast to approach from the west.

- An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek,
  lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.

- A surge of tropical moisture late in the week may result in
  multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Convective coverage has increased this afternoon in response to
the upper trough, which is enhancing diurnal instability. Later
this evening, a convective system currently affecting central
Texas is forecast to move eastward into our area. SPC has placed
areas along and north of the I-10 corridor under a Marginal Risk
(Level 1/5) for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard. WPC has also outlined parts of Tyler County and
south CenLA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall
and localized flash flooding. While this complex may weaken
somewhat upon entering our area, it could still maintain enough
organization to pose a severe weather threat, with damaging wind
gusts being the primary hazard.

By Monday, convection will begin to diminish as the upper ridge
over the southeastern U.S. expands westward. Rain chances will not
be eliminated but will become more limited. Temperatures will
hover near climatological normals initially, then trend above
normal by Tuesday as the ridge exerts more influence. Combined
with elevated dew points, heat indices may approach or exceed
advisory thresholds. Even in the absence of official heat
headlines, all should continue practicing heat safety during
prolonged outdoor exposure, especially those in sensitive groups.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The midweek period will begin under the continued influence of the
upper ridge, which will suppress convection and continue the
warming trend set into place in the short term. Although isolated
to widely scattered showers and storms may still develop during
peak diurnal periods, activity will remain limited. High
temperatures are forecast to rise a few degrees above normal, with
elevated humidity pushing heat indices toward or beyond advisory
levels. Again, regardless of official issuance, the last sentence
of the short term still applies.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, a retrograding trough is expected
be in the northern Gulf. NHC has kept a low (20%) chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days for this system.
Nevertheless, a deep tropical airmass is expected to surge into
the region, favoring enhanced rainfall rates and increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to climb
into the 75th percentile on Wednesday, then surge into the 90th
percentile to near daily max values (2.12.4 inches) by Thursday
afternoon and evening. WPC has already placed portions of Acadiana
under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall on
Thursday. Additional expansion or upgrading of this risk area may
be warranted depending on future trends.

Model spread increases by Friday and beyond, limiting forecast
confidence in the precise evolution of the pattern. However,
ensemble guidance suggests that anomalously high PWATs (above the
90th percentile for the entire CWA) will persist through the end
of the week and into the weekend, increasing the likelihood of
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. As such, further ERO outlooks,
potentially of higher magnitude, may be needed in subsequent
forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered convection has developed primarily across the eastern
half of the forecast area this afternoon, with additional activity
expected to fill in westward as a disturbance migrates from
central Texas. Brief periods of gusty winds, heavy rainfall
reducing VIS, and frequent lightning will be possible at affected
terminals. Thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish during
the late evening hours. Patchy fog may develop overnight, though
confidence in extent and intensity remains low. Any fog that does
form will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal
waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday as upper level ridging builds across the northern gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Daily thunderstorms will
develop from late morning through early evening through Monday. An
upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  94  73  96 /  10  30   0  20
LCH  77  91  76  93 /  10  60  10  30
LFT  76  90  75  92 /  10  60   0  40
BPT  76  91  75  93 /  10  50  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87