Gardere, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS64 KLIX 021717
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Quick update sent mainly to increase winds a touch more as
multiple locations are seeing wind gusts above 40 mph and even NEW
gusting to 51 mph. The rest of the forecast looks good for now so
no other adjustments made to the public forecast. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A warm day expected today as heights continue to increase with the
H5 ridge building across the western Atlantic. This will place our
region in an active southwest flow, however, rain chances stay to
our north and west through the short term. A cold front tries to
move toward our region on Thursday, but stalls out under this flow
upstream. At the surface, pressure gradient will remain fairly
tight between a strong high pressure off the east coast and low
pressure over the high plains. This is also causing a long fetch
across the Gulf, which will not only have marine impacts (see
marine section), but also pile water along the coast leading to
coastal flooding. This package it was decided to place the
southeast facing shore/beaches in a Coastal Flood Warning during
high tide as guidance is right around that threshold and these
areas are pretty vulnerable to high water. Elsewhere, all coastal
zones apart from the southshore have been issued an advisory.
Coastal Flood Watches continue beyond today into Thursday and will
be evaluated again for possible upgrades to an advisory or
warning in subsequent updates.

The wind advisory for landbased zones remains in effect again as
the strong pressure gradient remains locked across the entire
CWFA. If we happen to get some breaks, some stronger winds may mix
down in gusts up to 40 mph or so. Otherwise, along the immediate
coast, fog/low stratus will be possible through mid morning or
so. Visibilities aren`t that of needing a landbased dense fog
advisory yet, but we will continue to monitor that potential
through sunrise, especially along the MS Gulf Coast. And again,
well above average through the short term with near record highs
currently in the forecast. The warmest locations will be inland
where some may approach 90F. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A fairly robust 593 H5 ridge will continue to reside off the east
coast going into the start of the long term. This feature again
will continue the overall southwesterly flow aloft over our region
and also provide us with a continuation of above average
temperatures going into the last bit of the workweek. However, the
large scale trough across the western tier states will finally
start to break this feature down. The stubborn frontal boundary
that stalled from TX to the Ohio Valley will finally start to
move toward our region this weekend. Globals are still in good
agreement with the timing of this feature. That said, there will
be at least some severe potential late Saturday and into Sunday
morning, although timing looks to be a limitation at this
juncture. That said, we will still continue to monitor as shear
and at least modest instability will be present with the better
parameters and better forcing residing just to our north. Ahead of
the front the southerly fetch will continue right up until the
front passes. This will likely continue the need for coastal flood
products with multiple days of water piling up along the coast
and into the tidal lakes. Behind the front, strong CAA takes
shape, which should drop our temperatures by about 20 degrees in
terms of afternoon MaxTs. That said, there are some slight
differences in the Globals in terms of the frontal evolution after
it passes. ECM wants to slow things down a bit, which could keep
some lingering showers around, but the GFS is more progressive
sending the front well east of our area. Implications of course
here would be POPs to start the new workweek. Over the last couple
of runs the ECM has sped up a bit, but still largely lacks the
progressiveness in the GFS solution. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Biggest concern is still MVFR cigs which is impacting almost all
terminals. These may break up enough to get sct clouds and allow
for a short duration of VFR status but overall we will likely be
dealing with MVFR through most of the forecast. Tonight MVFR and
even IFR cigs will impact most if not all terminals. Other issue
is winds. Very gusty winds will continue through the day but LLWS
may be an issue during the evening and overnight hours as the BL
starts to decouple but winds just off the deck continue to blow
around 30-35 kts. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Quick update to add a Gale Warning to the tidal lakes as multiple
wind gusts well over 35 kts were occurring at MSY and NEW. With
that decided to upgrade just that area to a Gale Warning. However,
no where else did it look like we were getting Gale conditions.
Gale Warning has already been issued. /CAB/


Hazardous marine conditions have developed with small craft
advisories in effect for all local waters. In addition, marine fog
has developed right along the coast as rich low level moisture
advects over cooler waters. Going into late week, moderate winds
and seas at least expected with a likely long standing SCA for
most if not all the local waters. A cold front will move through
the region on Sunday, which will again strengthen the low level
flow out ahead of this feature. It is quite possible we will need
small craft advisories into early next week. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  70  87  71 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  87  73  89  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  86  72  87  72 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  86  73  87  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  80  71  81  71 /  10   0  10   0
PQL  82  70  83  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
     066>069-080-082-084.

     Coastal Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-076-
     078.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ087-
     088.

     Coastal Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
     afternoon for MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086.

GM...     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB/RDF