Estelle, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

488
FXUS64 KLIX 221140
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
540 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Broad upper trough along the Atlantic Coast, with ridging extending
from Baja California to eastern Montana. A strong shortwave to the
west of the upper ridge was moving through British Columbia. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over the Great Lakes with the
axis of a southward extension of that high over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Skies were mostly clear across the area
early this morning, with any significant clouds generally well
offshore. Temperatures were generally in the 30s away from marine
influences, but were in the 40s just south of Lake Pontchartrain.

As the axis of the high pressure shifts to the east of the area
later today, winds will gradually become easterly by late in the
day, and then southeasterly on Monday. This will allow temperatures
to begin to moderate on Monday with a gradual increase in low level
moisture. The LIX evening sounding Saturday evening showed
precipitable water values around 0.3 inches, which is near the 10th
percentile for late December and won`t even recover to the 25th
percentile by late Monday afternoon. We may start to see a few more
clouds by Monday afternoon, but until then, plenty of sunshine. Low
level temperatures would indicate highs this afternoon may gain a
couple degrees from Saturday, but still not likely to get much above
60, if that warm. Morning lows on Monday may be a couple degrees
above this morning`s lows, with any freezing temperatures likely to
be extremely isolated. Highs Monday likely to get into the mid and
upper 60s if clouds hold off. Those highs would be 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than normal for late December.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Temperatures will be on the increase this week along with
increasing dew points. It`ll also be active with several systems
passing through the area. The first is a shortwave bringing a cold
front which will move through the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some showers are possible with the best chances being
Christmas Day morning hours. The next one is a much more potent
looking shortwave that digs down towards the Arkansas/Louisiana
border late Thursday into Friday. There is still some slight
timing differences but it looks to also bring some additional
showers and possibly thunderstorms into the area. Still rather
iffy on any severe potential, as of right now thinking the better
potential is north of us but still needs to be monitored. -BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the whole forecast period. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Elevated winds continue for a little bit more but should begin to
slack later this morning. Winds will swap to onshore flow around
Tuesday along with increased shower chances. The showers and stray
thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of the week. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  31  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  36  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  33  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  57  44  66  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  57  36  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  60  32  67  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL