Chalmette, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

494
FXUS64 KLIX 060514
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1114 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

1. Another round of light to moderate rain expected mainly along the
coastal areas will develop around 4 AM this morning and continue
through much of the day Saturday. Light accumulations of less than
1" are expected. Additional light rainfall could occur with a final
round of precip association with the frontal passage on Sunday where
scattered showers could redevelop across more areas including more
inland areas.

2. Another shot of colder air will come from a stronger cold front
late on Sunday. Colder air from this front won`t arrive until Monday
so the coldest night of the forecast period will see temperatures
near freezing in southwest MS and adjacent parishes on Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Shower activity continues to move off to the northeast, but this
lull will not be for long before another round of shower activity
builds to the southwest of the cwa and moves back overhead through
the morning hours, especially along the coast. This will be kicked
up by yet another weak shortwave following through the WSW upper
flow that will push along the northern Gulf Coast through the day
on Saturday. As this trough pushes beyond the area Saturday
afternoon, shower activity will again taper off and allow for
things to dry out and clear up some. However, the axis of the
larger longwave trough keeping this WSW flow overhead still lags
behind over the central Great Plains. The passage of this trough
will help to push through a stronger frontal boundary later in the
day on Sunday. Scattered shower activity could redevelop across
the area from the slightly enhanced elevated instability and lift,
but overall rainfall accumulations for the next 48 hours no more
than 1" along the coast and even lower farther inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Next week medium range models are in agreement
initially. All indicate the L/W trough moving through and setting up
across the eastern CONUS/Atlantic coast next week. There are some
differences though in the amplitude of the pattern over the CONUS
but that is more during the second half of the work week. With the
models overall in fair enough agreement we will just stick with the
latest NBM. The biggest possible Target of Opportunity looks to be
Tuesday morning and that may be the only real deviation from the
NBM.

L/W trough finally slides east of the Lower MS Valley Sunday night
finally ushering a cold front completely through the area. Drier air
will finally filter in with high pressure building in from the
northwest. However the sfc high will not quite be over the area
Monday night still trying to build to the southeast while the center
of it will be well northeast of the area. The reason for that is
that even though the L/W trough axis will be east of the area the
pattern initially will be zonal aloft. A s/w coming out of the
Pacific northwest will be diving down the backside of it moving
through the Lower MS Valley Tuesday. That finally puts the region
under northwest flow aloft. In addition we still may be tapped into
the subtropical jet which could keep high clouds lingering over the
area. All of this will have a negative impact on radiational cooling
efficiency. The deterministic NBM is once again at the high end of
the probabilities and is either right at or above the 90th
percentile. This would typically make you question it and see if we
would be colder however, the MOS products are actually warmer and
given the not favorable radiational cooling set up I see no reason to
adjust Tuesday morning lows at this time which range from right near
freezing over southwest MS to lower/mid 40s over coastal SELA.

As for the rest of the forecast we will remain dry Monday through at
least Thursday and possibly through the work week. Monday and
Tuesday morning will be the coldest period in the current forecast
with temperatures slowly beginning to moderate Tuesday. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

IFR to LIFR CIGs are prevailing at most terminals with -SHRA
temporarily moving out of terminals. Another round of -SHRA and
stratus build down will keep most terminals firmly into IFR or
even intermittently LIFR through the early morning hours on
Saturday. SHRA will be most prevalent along the coast affecting
HUM, MSY, NEW, ASD, and GPT more than BTR, MCB, and HDC. Beyond
1800 UTC, -SHRA will gradually clear out and CIG/VIS will begin
to improve to MVFR or even VFR by the end of the forecast cycle.
Some straggling light showers will remain into Sunday, but overall
impacts will lessen through the weekend. Winds will remain light
and generally out of the northeast through the forecast cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As the stalled front drifts back to the north this morning, winds
will be a little more variable but still light. Light shower
activity and some reduction to visibilities will also occur
through the day on Saturday. A stronger cold front will push
through Sunday night with offshore winds of 15 to 20 knots
developing. Small craft headlines will likely be needed for
portions of the coastal waters overnight and into Monday. High
pressure quickly builds back into the area Monday night into
Tuesday and winds and seas will relax through midweek, becoming
onshore by later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  41  59  47 /  40  40  30  10
BTR  50  44  61  50 /  40  60  40  10
ASD  54  44  58  48 /  40  70  70  10
MSY  56  50  60  54 /  50  80  80  20
GPT  56  46  58  50 /  60  80  90  20
PQL  57  44  58  48 /  60  70  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS