Bayou Cane, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS64 KLIX 290644
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
144 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Hot conditions will continue with heat index readings
  approaching 110 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns
  toward the middle of this week as an easterly waves moves over
  the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The region will continue to feel the influence of a broad and deep
high pressure system centered over the Tennessee Valley today
into tonight. This will result in mostly sunny skies, hot
temperatures, and continued dry conditions. Deep layer subsidence
will help to warm the mid and upper levels, leading to very weak
lapse rates and limited instability this afternoon. At most, some
fair weather cumulus will develop below 10k feet as temperatures
climb into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. As the
temperatures climb, the drier air aloft will mix down to the
surface helping to push dewpoints down into the lower 70s. This
will help to keep heat index values in check at around 105 degrees
this afternoon. Thus, a heat advisory will not be issued for the
area today. Tonight will see temperatures cool back into the mid
to upper 70s resulting in some relief from the hot temperatures
this afternoon.

Tuesday will be a transitional day as the high lifts slightly
further to the north toward the Ohio Valley. This will place the
region more on the southern periphery of the deep layer ridge
resulting in a more persistent and deep easterly flow regime
taking hold by Tuesday afternoon. This easterly flow will allow
moisture to feed back into the area and PWATS should increase from
around 1.5 inches in the morning to 1.8 inches, or near average
for this time of year, by the afternoon hours. As moisture
increases in the mid-levels, lapse rates will steepen to around
6.0C/KM and mixed layer CAPE values will rise to around 1500 J/KG
by the late afternoon hours. Although instability will improve,
the convective temperature will remain quite high in the mid 90s,
so any convective initiation will occur late in the afternoon and
into the evening hours when these temperatures are reached.
Additionally, lingering dry air in the mid-levels could entrain
into some of the deeper updrafts that form late Tuesday leading to
an increased risk for wet microbursts and damaging wind gusts.
These events will be very isolated, one or two storms at most,
with the greatest risk over portions of coastal Mississippi late
Tuesday. DCAPE values in coastal Mississippi of around 1100 J/KG
and relatively steep lapse rates approaching 7.0C/KM in the lowest
3km of the atmosphere support this wet microburst risk.

A weak area of enhanced vorticity will slide through on the back
of the deep layer easterly flow Tuesday night and Wednesday and
slightly deeper moisture will accompany this vorticity max. This
will help to push PWATS to around the 75th percentile, or near 2
inches, Tuesday night into Wednesday and this increased moisture
will tap into a fairly unstable airmass to produce continued
scattered convection along the coast Tuesday night. The convection
will focus along any landbreeze boundaries that develop overnight.
As we move into the daytime hours, the weak forcing aloft from the
vort max will combine with the typical diurnally forced seabreeze
cycle to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will move from the coast in the morning hours to
inland areas in the afternoon hours. The storms will be fairly
progressive with storm motion of 15 to 20 mph, so the threat of
heavy rainfall and flooding will be somewhat reduced. Still,
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected and this
could lead to some localized street flooding issues in areas with
wet antecedent conditions or poor drainage. Temperatures will be
near average in the low to mid 90s and heat index values will
approach heat advisory range due to higher dewpoints and overall
increased humidity before the rains develops.

Thursday will see conditions revert to more typical Summer time
weather as the vorticity max moves out of the region and the
lingering easterly flow regime dominates. The ridge will gain some
influence by drying out the mid-levels and PWATS will fall back to
average for this time of year. The end result will be diurnally
forced convection firing up along the seabreeze front and then
shifting inward along outflow boundaries that form. The convection
will be more scattered with some areas not seeing any rainfall
through the day. Temperatures will be near average in the low to
mid 90s and heat index readings will rise to just below advisory
levels as dewpoints drop slightly due to the drier air mixing down
from aloft. The atmosphere will also be favorable for additional
wet microburst development as the mid-levels dry and steep lapse
rates persist below 3km. An isolated damaging wind event could
occur with the deepest convective development Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Deep layer easterly flow will continue through the latter half of
the week with strong mid-upper ridging situated over the OH River
Valley. By Thursday into Friday, continental dry air will begin
to mix into the mid-levels and could temper PWATs some. This could
limit the excessive rainfall risk, but could also enhance the
potential for downbursts and wet microbursts associated with
afternoon storms given the lower atmosphere will still be plenty
moist and unstable to support diurnal convection.

Lingering easterly flow will leave us open to additional weak
inverted trough passes associated with a decaying frontal system
over the southwest Atlantic into the weekend. However, the general
eastern CONUS ridging pattern headed into the weekend will favor
high temperatures into the mid 90s with heat indices between 100 to
110 degrees each day. The primary uncertainty with the necessity for
heat-related headlines will be dependent on confidence of cloud
cover and longevity of these elevated heat indices during the
afternoon prior to any storm development.

Looking ahead, the longwave pattern within the global ensemble
guidance continue to suggest the potential for a larger mid-upper
ridge setting up over the west-central CONUS and favoring troughing
and northwest flow across the southeastern CONUS headed into next
week which could bring temperatures down and potentially bring more
convective activity into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A very dry and stable area of high pressure will remain over the
area through tonight leading to prevailing VFR conditions at all
of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

High pressure will remain centered over the waters through Tuesday.
Winds will remain light and variable over this period with the
seabreeze cycle being the primary influence closer to the coast.  A
weak low pressure system passing through the region on Wednesday
will allow winds to turn more easterly at 5 to 10 knots.  These
easterly winds will persist into Thursday.  By Friday, winds will
turn more southerly as high pressure over the eastern Gulf builds
in.  There will be a risk of thunderstorms that could produce
locally gusty winds and waterspouts from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG