Bayou Cane, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXUS64 KLIX 242339
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
639 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Easterly wave and weak surface low somewhere in the vicinity of
Breton and Chandeleur Sounds at midday, moving westward.
Precipitable water values were between 2.25 and 2.4 inches on
morning soundings, and that`s expected to change little during the
day today. Development of showers/thunderstorms occurred quite a
bit earlier today than yesterday, and most areas with the
exception of the Baton Rouge area may have already reached their
highs for the day.

Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to continue this
afternoon before gradually weakening around sunset. Considering
the high moisture content of the air, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in most areas this afternoon, but radar shows these
storms to be progressing from east to west, limiting the flood
threat. Coastal areas may never totally get rid of precipitation
overnight, or may just have a brief (3-6 hour) lull before
additional precipitation arrives from the coastal waters around
sunrise. While precipitable water values may not be quite as high
on Friday, in the 2 to 2.2 inch range, still expect rather good
areal coverage of showers and storms (scattered to numerous),
which could get going again by mid-morning. Cloud cover and
precipitation are expected to hold high temperatures close to, or
slightly below normal on Friday, upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Upper ridging will gradually build westward, centered near the
Georgia-South Carolina border on Saturday, and over Alabama on
Sunday, then to Arkansas by Tuesday. As we get into mid-week next
week, the ridge will be far enough north and west to allow another
easterly wave to move into the northeast Gulf. That seems to be a
fairly persistent pattern over the last couple weeks, where
ridging sets up over the local area for about 3 or 4 days in the
early part of the week, then easterly waves return showers and
storms to the area for 3-4 days. Sunday and Wednesday have
generally been the transition days.

Still pretty extensive areal coverage on Saturday, with 12 hourly
PoPs during the day of 60 to 80 percent still entirely reasonable.
As precipitable water values fall to the 1.6 to 1.8 range Sunday,
areal coverage should be diminishing to isolated or scattered at
best. With some subsidence in place Monday and Tuesday, areal
coverage of convection is likely to remain on the isolated side,
and probably limited to lake/sea breeze boundaries. As moisture
levels jump back above 2 inches, and more likely to around 2.2
inches, areal coverage of storms will increase again on Wednesday.

Shower and thunderstorms development on Saturday may occur late
enough to allow high temperatures to return to the lower 90s, but
heat index values may stop just short of Heat Advisory criteria.

Sunday through Tuesday will see high temperatures increase again,
with mid 90s likely Sunday and mid to upper 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Won`t rule out isolated locations reaching the century
mark Monday and Tuesday (primarily south Mississippi) if surface
winds maintain a northerly component. Higher coverage of
precipitation next Wednesday should bring high temperatures back
closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An active convective pattern will persist through tomorrow with
periods of showers and storms affecting the terminals. Ongoing
convection should wane over the next couple hours with a relative
lull lasting until some time between 08z and 12z as showers and
storms begin to refire. Will likely see periods of IFR conditions
at each terminal due to convection, but with timing of the worst
conditions uncertain am currently carrying only MVFR conditions in
PROB30 groups. These can likely be refined as timing becomes more
clear with the next 1-2 TAF packages.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Main concern to marine operations will be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and
seas. Storms will be most numerous during the late night through
morning hours over the open waters today through Saturday, with
the threat over the protected waters mainly during the late
morning into early evening hours. Areal coverage of showers and
storms should be considerably lower during Sunday through Tuesday
before increasing again at midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  89  73  90 /  40  80  20  80
BTR  76  90  76  90 /  50  80  30  80
ASD  74  89  75  90 /  50  80  30  80
MSY  79  91  79  92 /  60  80  30  90
GPT  77  89  77  90 /  70  80  40  70
PQL  76  89  76  91 /  60  80  40  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...RW