Winchester, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS63 KLMK 130526
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
126 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms return across
   southern Kentucky.

*  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday into the weekend.
   Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are the main concerns with
   storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Previous forecast remains on track. Just a slight tweak to fog.
There is a low confidence chance for some patchy fog development
over southern Kentucky and eastern Kentucky. Calm winds, clear
skies, and good radiational cooling may bring these areas near the
crossover temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Tonight, the jet stream remains over the northern CONUS. An upper
closed low, part of a weak upper trough, drops south and is
continuing to slide northeast into the Ozarks. Ahead of the low,
south surface winds carry moisture north through the Mississippi and
Ohio River Valleys. Precipitable water values, currently around 1-
1.25", lift to around 1.75" early tonight. Chances for isolated
showers and thunderstorms increase throughout the night over central
Kentucky, mainly the western and southern parts of the CWA. Anything
that does develop isn`t expected to be severe. Lows are expected to
drop into the low 70s to upper 60s.

Around sunrise, rain will likely begin falling in parts of southern
Indiana and central Kentucky. Chances will increase as the upper low
inches towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Precipitation is expected to
come in waves as they swing around the low, and with diurnal
warming, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could see
higher rainfall rates as precipitable water values reach slightly
above 2", leading to heavy showers. Ponding on roadways should be
expected under heavier rainfall. Model soundings show decent
instability with MLCAPE values mostly in the 1,500 J/kg neighborhood.
A couple places could see values reach higher for a short period of
time, but with shear values remaining weak, some gusty winds will be
possible. Mostly cloudy skies should help limit instability and keep
severe potential limited. Highs are expected to reach into the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Friday night, as the upper low pushes a surface low through Missouri
into southern Illinois, a weak (25-35 knot) low level jet will work
east over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Precipitation will
likely continue in waves, but as the low nears the CWA on Saturday,
rainfall is expected to become more widespread. Thunder would remain
possible, but severe weather isn`t expected.

The upper low continues east over southern Indiana before
dissipating Saturday night, and by Sunday night, it should be gone,
being picked up by upper zonal flow. The surface low is expected to
remain over southern Indiana into Monday. Precipitable water values
likely remain around 1.75-2", so plenty of moisture will keep cloud
cover and precipitation in the area. Throughout this time, periods
of scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely. Severe weather
chances remain low.

Heading into early next week, the general trend has northwest flow
carrying a possible wave towards the Lower Ohio Valley around
Tuesday. This could potentially result in additional precipitation
chances before a cold front arrives Wednesday night or Thursday (the
Euro is a little faster than the GFS). Temperatures will slowly warm
from the low to mid 80s to the upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A low pressure system moving into the region from the west today
will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially this afternoon with daytime heating. This morning, VFR
conditions are expected as mid- and high-level clouds continue to
pass overhead. Over the next few hours, lower clouds and a decaying
band of showers will approach BWG and HNB. While the precipitation
should weaken, the lower clouds may hang around, and MVFR ceilings
are possible after around 13-14Z. This area of MVFR ceilings may
even approach other terminals later this morning. For the most part,
VFR conditions are expected over the current forecast period outside
of any heavier showers and thunderstorms which develop this
afternoon. Have tried to narrow down timing a little bit with this
forecast issuance, and will hopefully be able to have confidence to
go with prevailing SHRA/TSRA later this morning. Winds today should
generally be less than 10 kt, though direction may be quite variable
between southeasterly and southwesterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG