Winchester, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS63 KLMK 021917
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT

* LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND,
  WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
  WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

****SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS EVENING****

An occluded 988mb low pressure system is centered over IA as of
02/18Z with a warm front extending west through IL/IN/OH and a cold
front extending SW into TX. Current conditions attest to our area
being well situated within the warm sector as KY Mesonet shows
current temps in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the low
to mid 60s. Strong LLJ is also evident on area radar VWPs with 65KT
noted at 6kft. Strong southerly winds will continue through the
afternoon with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range possible. In fact,
peak winds of 52 mph have already been measured by KY Mesonet in
Nicholas and Clark counties, KY. With that said, the Wind Advisory
will continue through 03/05Z as planned.

Ahead of the main line of storms, some showers will likely push
through the area. ACARS soundings out SDF show a rather impressive
subsidence inversion at around 800mb, which will likely cap any
convective growth and thus limit any severe hazards this afternoon.

The line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently advancing
across AR/MO and is expected to reach our westernmost counties by as
early as 7PM EDT this evening. Ample kinematic energy and
instability will result in an especially ripe environment for severe
weather, with all hazards in play: damaging winds, large hail, flash
flooding, and tornadoes. The severe threat should diminish as the
line pushes east of the I-65 corridor, and is expected to become
mostly non-severe by 03/08Z. The line is forecast to slow down once
entering the OH Valley with the frontal boundary eventually stalling
somewhere over central KY. At this point, the stalled boundary will
serve as the focus for continued rainfall as we transition from a
severe threat to more of a flood threat as embedded convection
trains along the boundary.

Hyetal pattern continues throughout Thursday as the stalled boundary
anchors over central KY. Light rain is expected for most of the area
with moderate rain possible at times. The flood threat will continue
as soils saturate and rivers become full. The ongoing Flood Watch
will continue as planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

**** MAJOR FLOODING (POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING) EXPECTED****

Thursday Night and Friday...

Quasi-stationary boundary over central KY and southern IN will be
the main focus for our active weather Thursday night into Friday.
LLJ coming up from the south will help to enhance lift along and
north of the boundary. This will provide good moisture transport
increasing PWAT values between 1.50-1.75" along and just south of
the boundary through central KY into southern IN. Significant heavy
rainfall will be the main threat leading to significant flash
flooding across our area, especially where the heaviest corridor of
rain occurs. Forecast rainfall amounts range from between 1-2.5" in
the heaviest precipitation corridor, which currently looks to be
along and north of the Parkways into northern KY and southern IN but
will be dependent on where the boundary sets up. Model soundings
continue to show a limited severe threat with most convection being
mainly elevated. Even with this, any training elevated convection
could produce localized higher amounts of 3-4" of rainfall.

Rainfall and rain amounts will be determined by placement of the
meandering sfc boundary over the region. There is growing guidance
that the boundary will start to lift northward into central IN late
Friday into early Saturday as mid-level ridging increases over the
area. This may give us a slight break from the heavy rain with just
some scattered showers and storms mainly across southern IN/northern
KY late Friday into early Saturday.


Saturday and Sunday...

During the day on Saturday, the upper trough to our west finally
gets picked up by a northern stream disturbance and begins to eject
off to the northeast. This will push the sfc boundary back to the
south and east as a cold front leading to one final push of strong
storms and heavy rainfall Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning,
with the sfc front finally crossing through the area on Sunday.
Ahead of the front, moisture indices like PW and IVT once again
surge to near the maximum of climatology, with several more inches
of rain likely with this final wave. Rain should end from west to
east during the day on Sunday, with cooler air rushing in for the
end of the weekend and the start of next week.

Early Next Week...

Much quieter weather is expected during at least the first half of
next week, with a much-needed reprieve from heavy rainfall and
severe storm chances. The upper flow pattern over North America will
be rather amplified, but will take on an inverse phase with deep
ridging out west and troughing across the east. This should place
our region within a NW flow regime aloft, and sfc high pressure will
gradually sink into the region by the middle of next week. This flow
regime will be supportive of cold and dry air advection, with
ensemble mean PW and temperatures below climatological normals.
Light precipitation from transient clipper systems can`t be ruled
out, and we`ll have to watch for potential frost/freeze conditions;
nevertheless, this pattern shift will support a much calmer period
of weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day before a cold
brings strong to severe thunderstorms into the region. Latest
surface analysis shows an occluded low pressure system over north
central MO with a warm front extending W-E across central IL/IN/OH
and a cold front stretching SW into TX. Area radar VWPs are showing
a pronounced LLJ overhead with FL020 winds 20045KT and FL060 winds
at 21060KT, which is also verified by ACARS soundings out of SDF.
Surface winds out of the south will continue to gust up to 40-45KT
throughout the day, before subsiding to sustained at 20-25KT. LLWS
conditions will exist this evening ahead of the line of
thunderstorms move into the area. Severe storms along this line of
convection will be capable of damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes. The cold front will slow and eventually stall out
somewhere across central KY, resulting in continued rain with
possible embedded thunderstorms. Winds will eventually subside to
under 10KT with winds shifting to NW at HNB, SDF, and possibly
BWG...depending on where the front stalls. Thursday will consist of
MVFR conditions with continued rain.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Sunday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Sunday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CG