Shively, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS63 KLMK 111208
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
808 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy fog possible this morning.  Dry and warm weather expected
  through Thursda.

* Unsettled weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Early morning satellite and observations show mostly clear skies
across the region.  Some light fog was noted across much of central
KY with areas of dense fog in the deeper valley locations.
Temperatures were in the upper 50s to around 60 in most areas.  For
the remainder of the overnight hours, light fog will continue across
the region with the more dense fog limited to the valley locations.
Overnight lows will likely be in the mid-upper 50s.

For today, upper trough axis will continue to lift northeast out of
the region.  In its place, a more zonal flow pattern will set up
over the region with an increase in riding aloft tonight.  With low-
level thicknesses increasing, temperatures today will be warmer than
what we saw on Tuesday.  Afternoon highs today should top out in the
lower to middle 80s.  Mostly clear skies with patchy fog is expected
once again tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Thursday through Saturday Night...

Upper level pattern will feature zonal flow across the Ohio Valley
on Thursday.  Increasing heights aloft and low-mid level thickness
increasing will lead to higher temperatures across the region.
Afternoon highs on Thursday look to warm into the 84-89 degree
range.  Lows Thursday night will drop back into the upper 60s to
around 70.

By Friday, zonal flow pattern aloft will remain in place across the
northern CONUS with an upper level low across the southern Plains
lifting northeast toward the Ohio Valley.  This low will gradually
deamplify as it moves across the region Friday and Saturday.
Increasing southerly flow will allow deeper moisture to push up into
the region during the period.  Scattered showers and storms are
expected across the region Friday afternoon.  Some storms could be
strong given expected instability, but shear pretty weak across the
region.   A higher coverage of showers and storms Saturday afternoon
is expected.  Again, some storms could be strong here as well given
favorable instability during the afternoon.  However, shear remains
pretty weak, so the typical summertime pulse storm variety is
expected with heavy rainfall and gusty winds as the main threat.

Overall, the showers and storms will not result in Friday and
Saturday being a total washout, but the highest risk of storms will
be in the afternoon and evening with lesser chance in the
evening/overnight and early morning hours. Highs Friday and Saturday
will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to
around 70.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Upper trough axis is expected to push east of the region on Sunday
but we`ll see scattered afternoon and evening convection across the
region.  Again, not a total washout here, but with deep moisture
expected across the region, we`ll have to watch out for isolated
hydro issues that may crop up in areas that see repeated rainfall.

The flow pattern looks to remain fairly zonal going into next week
as a subtropical ridge axis attempts to set up across the southern
US.  A bit of a stronger band of westerlies will reside on the north
side of that ridge with multiple perturbations moving through.  The
general setup is typical of a summertime pattern locally with the
usual diurnal max of scattered showers/storms.  The muggy pattern is
expected to persist here with small diurnal ranges in temperatures.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 807 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Latest surface analysis shows a 1019mb high pressure center over the
Commonwealth while current satellite reveals mostly clear skies with
some high clouds beginning to advect in over western KY. River
valley fog is also noted, especially along portions of the Salt,
Ohio, Kentucky, and Cumberland Rivers. Expect mainly VFR conditions
and light winds throughout this TAF cycle outside of early morning
fog chances at HNB, BWG, and RGA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CG