Frankfort, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS63 KLMK 230211
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
911 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Colder weather for today, with high temperatures only in the
  upper 20s. Similar temperatures expected for Monday too.

* Breezy, snow showers will continue to move through the region this
  afternoon and evening. A few snow squalls may be possible for the
  Bluegrass, along with snow accumulations up to 1 inch expected.

* Temperatures gradually warm next week with a messy weather pattern
  in store. Small chance of rain Tuesday with a greater chance
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Currently snow showers are continuing to move out of the area,
however some heavier banding is still possible. Majority of the
forecast area should be snow free by 08z tonight, while the
Bluegrass region holds onto snow chances into tomorrow. A low-level
stratus cloud deck remains over the region through tonight into
tomorrow. Winds will remain breezy through the night with gusts
around 25mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Through Sunset...Scattered snow showers will continue to stream
through the region. These showers will bring brief periods of
moderate snowfall, reductions in visibilities, and snow
accumulations up to an inch. We continue to see steep lapse rates,
40-50 J/kg of SBCAPE, gusty winds, and good low-level RH, which
could bring a few snow squalls this afternoon and into the evening.
SPSs have been continued over the northeastern half of the region
through 0Z.

Tonight... The developing nor`easter and the parent trough will
continue to strengthen and begin to push northeast. Low to mid level
moisture will taper off from SW to NE overnight, which will decrease
snow chances. The pressure gradient will remain tight over the
region, which will keep gusting WNW winds up to 30mph. Continued CAA
will bring temperatures into the upper teens and low 20s on Monday
morning. With cold temperatures and windy conditions, it will feel
blustery with minimum wind chills in the 4-9F range.

Monday... Northwest flow aloft will keep CAA and cold temperatures
over the area. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the low-mid
30s. NW gusts up to 30mph will continue through the afternoon.
Because of these winds, this will create a strong fetch off of Lake
Michigan, which will bring some light snow to the northeastern half
of the region during the late morning and early afternoon. Little to
no accumulation is expected. Towards the end of the day, the
pressure gradient will slacken and troughing will push off to the
east. This will allow skies to thin from west to east and winds to
steadily relax.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

===== Tuesday and Wednesday =====

On Tuesday, the effects of the deep trough over the east will exit
and a weak, temporary mid level to low level ridge will build in.
Tuesday morning will be very cold, as temperatures then are expected
to be in the mid teens to low 20s. However, this bitter cold will be
short-lived once the overall synoptic pattern changes later in the
day. At the surface on Tuesday morning, high pressure will quickly
shift to our south, changing our NNW flow to a SW flow, moderating
our temperatures into the low to upper 40s. As this ridge weakens
and shifts south, another trough will trek across the Great Lakes.
Current trends is keeping the bulk of the moisture to our north and
east. Wind and QPF guidance suggests the same with a weak frontal
passage, keeping us rain free. For now, will leave PoPs out but
there is potential for some rain showers later in the day, favoring
northern areas for some light rain. Additionally, with the
tightening pressure gradient as the trough moves to our north, there
may be some gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours.
Eventually, winds die down in the overnight heading into Wednesday.

Messy pattern continues through mid week, though Wednesday is a tale
of being between two storms. A surface high tries to build in but
with the overall troughing pattern, it`s only expected to linger
into early Wednesday afternoon as another trough approaches from the
west. Highs with a SW flow should range from the mid 50s to near 60
in southern areas. Clouds will begin to build late on Wednesday
ahead of the next system. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning
trend warmer with low to upper 40s.

===== Thursday - Saturday =====

During the very early to late morning hours, another trough with a
surface low pressure intensifying from lee cyclogenesis will move
into the Ohio Valley, dropping a decent amount of rain with snow on
the cold side of the low on the shores of Lake Michigan. Guidance is
still unsure of the timing for this storm, though this storm could
be aided with forcing for ascent from jet dynamics. Rain should
begin falling sometime during the morning hours and could last most
of the day. Forecast confidence remains low on totals though decent
rainfall totals and storms can`t be ruled out. Depending on the
timing of this system, it may clear Thursday night though some
models want to slow the progression and increase the isentropic lift
to prolong the rain in the area. Regardless, Thursday looks to be
warmer than normal with at least some clouds sticking around
Thursday night.

As this system rolls through into Friday morning, rain may linger
early in the morning, but otherwise, the rest of Friday will be
drier and with mild temperatures. Weak ridging will build into the
Ohio Valley and conditions should be calm Friday evening. Expect
more calm weather on Saturday as well, with a near zonal jet
expected to keep weather nearly consistent between Friday and
Saturday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Current light snow showers are lingering in the Louisville and
Bluegrass areas. Visibility conditions are continuing to improve
through the evening, however could see moments of high-end MVFR vis
through the night. The Bluegrass region has a slight chances for
additional light snow showers tomorrow. Skies will start to clear
west to east tomorrow with ceilings around 5k ft. Winds will
continue to be gusty through tonight into tomorrow with a WNW
component and gusts up to 22kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CAL
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...BF
AVIATION...CAL