Frankfort, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS63 KLMK 160524
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A robust cold front will push across the region tonight and early
  Monday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
  accompany the front with a damaging wind threat. Tornadoes will
  also be possible.

* Rapid drop in temperatures early Monday morning, with scattered
  snow showers expected Monday. Light snow accumulations will be
  possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Wind
  chills in the single digits and teens for Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong, deep S/SW flow is in place ahead of a deepening low pressure
system moving across the Midwest. A potent mid/upper level trough
will continue to dig over the Midwest and MS Valley through tonight,
while a sub-990 mb sfc low lifts northeast over Lower MI. We have
seen widespread 40-50 mph gusts out of the south today, with brief
gusts of 50-60 mph across southern IN and northern KY. We did
consider an upgrade to a High Wind Warning for 60+ mph damaging
gusts, but the strongest gradient winds were occurring 17-18Z and
current ASOS/AWOS/KY Mesonet obs are all in the 35-50 mph range. The
strongest core of the LLJ also continues to lift northeast across
central IN.

This afternoon, a thin QLCS is pushing east across central MO along
the cold front. This line of very gusty showers and thunderstorms is
still expected to sweep west to east across central KY and southern
IN between 9 PM EDT - 3 AM EDT tonight. The low-level moisture
quality and sfc-based instability still look marginal (up to 250-500
J/kg SBCAPE), but the wind damage threat should be taken seriously.
The southerly LLJ ramps up significantly tonight immediately ahead
of the convective line, with 60-70 kts noted in the 1-3 km layer.
With increased turbulent mixing and convective downdrafts, scattered
to numerous instances of wind damage are expected along the leading
edge of the QLCS. Isolated 70+ mph gusts will be possible,
especially with any bows or surges along the line. Tornadoes are
also possible, but the tornado potential will be limited by the
overnight timing and waning sfc-based instability as the line pushes
east.

Showers are expected to clear the Bluegrass Region around 4 AM EDT,
with strong westerly cold air advection behind the cold front.
Expect a brief lull in precipitation, with rapidly falling
temperatures and gusty westerly winds of 25-35 mph. The upper trough
swings overhead on Monday, with wrap-around moisture pivoting across
IN and central KY. Steepening lapse rates and a cooling/moistening
profile up through 700 mb will yield scattered snow showers late
Monday morning through the afternoon hours. A quick dusting of
accumulation will be possible, perhaps up to an inch in very
localized swaths. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s through the
daytime in the CAA regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

It will remain somewhat breezy Monday night as temperatures fall
through the 20s, evening dropping into the mid/upper teens early
Tuesday morning across southern IN and north-central KY. Wind chills
in the single digits and teens are likely Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds across the region on Tuesday, and afternoon
temps will recover into the low to mid 30s. It will remain chilly
into Tuesday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s. Increasing SW
winds and WAA will help boost temperatures into the mid 40s to mid
50s on Wednesday ahead of a weak clipper. This system could spread
light rain and snow as far south as southern IN and central KY.
Relatively drier and warmer weather is expected heading into late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The line of storms is currently over the eastern portion of the area
and will exit in the next 2 hours. Winds will remain gusty with
lingering rain and then a change over to snow as colder air moves
in. There may be a period of dry air with this but winds will shift
from the south to the west as the boundary moves through. Scattered
light snow along with gusty winds will be around during the day with
lingering MVFR CIG that arrive behind the passing front during the
overnight into tomorrow morning. Could see CIG return to VFR after
18z tomorrow. Snow showers will stick around through the end of the
TAF period. Snow squalls will be possible this afternoon, where
heavy snow and low VIS will be possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW