Erlanger, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS61 KILN 130553
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An advancing upper low and associated frontal boundary will dominate
the weather for Friday and the weekend, increasing the chances for
showers with some thunderstorms. The associated surface frontal
boundary will become nearly stationary across the upper Ohio Valley
throughout the weekend, resulting in several rounds of showers and
storms.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Latest CAM model soundings still indicate a fair amount of dry air in
the low levels to overcome, so have dialed down the mention of
showers and thunderstorms as radar returns are from at least a 6k to
8k ft deck, with the required instability still across southern
Illinois. Overnight lows still expected to be in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Quasi-stationary front will sink southward from the Great Lakes on
Friday, which will now be draped across northern OH. A shortwave
trough will eject from the southern Plains on Friday, which combined
with the stalled boundary, will aid in shower/storm development
throughout the day. Best coverage appears to be in the afternoon and
evening as diurnal enhancement occurs. Given the weak shear profiles
and weak to marginal DCAPE values (near 500 J/kg), severe threat
will be little to none in our CWA. A few stronger cells could produce
small hail and gusty winds, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Flooding concern should be little to none as well given the drier
weather the past several days. However, hydro issues could crop up
later into the weekend with the repeated rounds of storms.

Shower and storm activity will continue into the overnight hours as
the shortwave trough remains in close proximity. Coverage will be
expected to wane as we progress through the night, but there will
likely be some cells on the scope through the entire period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level trough axis and an associated weak surface wave will
progress slowly east across the Ohio Valley through the weekend and
into early next week. This will lead to occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. With weak
afternoon instabilities, we will likely see some diurnal enhancement
in the pops during the afternoons and early evenings. Any severe
threat should remain minimal with locally heavy rain being the main
concern. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through
the weekend.

We will transition to a bit more of zonal flow pattern through mid
next week as a series of weak embedded short waves move east across
the region within the flow. Temperatures will gradually moderate
with highs by mid week in the mid to possibly upper 80s. This will
combine with increasing moisture to allow for some better
instabilities to develop through the later part of the period. As a
result, we will have a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. A lower end severe threat
may also develop as we head into mid week given the potential for
better instability and a somewhat stronger flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR condition expected through at least 15-18z, but with VFR CIGs
lowering over time. The only exception is the near daybreak potential
for MVFR visibility at KLUK. Brought in prob30 for shra after 15z at
KLUK/KCVG/KILN, becoming more widespread after 18-19z with prob30
thunderstorms in the 18-23z timeframe at most locations. Any ceiling
or visibility restrictions in thunderstorms should remain MVFR.
After 00z, a bit of a lull in shower activity from west to east, with
temporarily diminished shower activity at the western TAF locations,
but lingered some -SHRA at KCMH/KLCK.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Friday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JDR