Covington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS61 KILN 101301
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
901 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions and near normal temperatures will prevail through
midweek before a warmer and more humid airmass returns to the region
by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. This return to a
warmer and more humid pattern will bring renewed daily chances for
showers and storms Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No updates to the near term forecast this morning. A fairly tranquil
weather day expected across the Ohio Valley.

Previous discussion ---->
The expansive mid/upper level trof will pull away from the region
today, with a weak sfc front working its way through the local area
early this morning. The front should clear the ILN FA by daybreak,
allowing for drier air to filter in from the W through the near term
period. Despite this drier air, there will be some diurnally-driven
Cu to contend with today, with partly cloudy skies expected by the
afternoon.

The other item of interest for the daytime will be the presence of
some smoke aloft (due to wildfires well upstream of the OH Vly),
which will again drift into/through the region today, creating a
"milky/hazy" appearance to the sky, even in the absence of clouds. So
it will certainly be a mix of (filtered) sunshine and clouds for
most of the afternoon into early evening. This may keep temps perhaps
a degree or two cooler than would otherwise be the case, but highs
should still top out in the lower/mid 70s... about 6-8 degrees below
seasonal norms. Today will likely be the only day in the next week
plus that will feature below normal temps.

Westerly winds around 10-15kts will gust close to 20kts at times this
afternoon. Dewpoints will dip into the lower to mid 50s, with some
upper 40s possible near/N of I-70 during peak heating/mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Skies should slowly clear out once again late this evening as the Cu
dissipates, yielding clear skies and light winds for the overnight.
Temps will dip into the mid to upper 50s, with some lower 50s likely
in rural/sheltered locales. There may also be some river valley BR/FG
develop tonight given the good radiational cooling conditions and
lingering near-ground moisture.

Abundant sunshine is on tap Wednesday, with stronger SW LL flow
becoming established, helping bump temps into the lower 80s by the
afternoon. Midlevel height rises will already be well underway,
signaling the beginning of a return to a warmer pattern, one that
will develop into late week and this upcoming weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stray shower could affect west central Ohio later Thurs, but the
beginning of the forecast is dry through Thurs night. On Fri, the
probability of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
until they become likely on Sat. A nocturnal lull will lower pops
overnight down to a chance, but ramp back up on Sun becoming likely
in the latter part of the day south of the I-70 corridor. This
nocturnal min overnight and increase during the day repeats itself
Sun night/Mon, again with the higher likely pops found south of the
I-70 corridor. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain a
possibility through the end of the forecast.

Zonal wly flow aloft will occur through Thurs as a quite weak,
negatively tilted upper ridge to the west gets absorbed in the sw
flow ahead of a developing low in the southern Plains. This low
remains fairly static over nw KS/sw MO through Fri and weakens into
a fairly stationary upper trough by Sat. The trough moves to the wrn
OHVly Sun, over CWA Sun night, and east of the CWA Mon. The ECMWF is
a standout in that it keeps the low/open trough in the srn Plains
Thu/Fri with a very slow ewd movement. So slow that it remains over
the MO/AR area through Tuesday. Guidance between deterministic
models in the long term becomes muddled in the upper pattern
beginning Sun night, as does fcst confidence going forward.

On Thurs, surface high pressure to the southeast gets shunted out of
the region as a w-e oriented wmfnt develops over nrn OH. The front
lingers and drops a bit to the south by early Fri and lifts back
into nrn OH later in the day, lingering through Sat. By Sun, the
front has become stationary with a sw-ne orientation. Waves of low
pressure will track northeast through the stationary front Sun and
Sun night. As with the upper level fields are in a state of
uncertainty at this time, so are the surface mass fields beginning
early Mon.

Highs will be warmest on Thu, but should be consistently in the low-
mid 80s through the forecast. Overnight lows will be coolest on Wed
night with readings near 60, then warm to the mid and some upper 60s
for the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some LIFR/VLIFR CIGs have developed /just/ to the SE of the local
sites, but some BR/VSBY reductions have developed from time-to-time,
particularly at KLUK where FG has developed. Do expect these VSBYs to
go back VFR area-wide shortly into the TAF period once the BR/FG
dissipates.

A FEW/SCT midlevel clouds will drift to the NE early in the period,
but VFR Cu should sprout area-wide again by early afternoon, with
SCT to BKN sky conditions expected for the afternoon. Have included
some SCT/BKN high level clouds in the fcst due to the expectation for
smoke aloft to once again be drifting through the region. There is
not expected to be any cirrus, but the sky above the VFR Cu won`t be
completely clear, either. The Cu/stratocu will slowly dissipate after
sunset, yielding mostly clear skies once again late in the period.

Westerly winds of 10-12kts, with gusts 15-18kts, are expected by
midday before subsiding once again past 00z. With light/calm winds
and a good setup for some river valley BR/FG, expect that IFR or
lower VSBYs will again develop at KLUK between 06z-12z Wednesday,
with some VLIFR conditions possible at the site.

OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC