Covington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS61 KILN 241118
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
618 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper atmospheric disturbances will be embedded in the general
flow from time to time over the forecast period. This will
result in chance of precipitation but nothing widespread or of
significant note through Thursday night. On Friday, an upper
level low will enter the Ohio Valley as it ejects northeast from
TX, and should result in a good shot of rain as it crosses our
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Wsw-ene oriented line of drizzle is found over southern and
moreso southeast CWA attm, and should be out of the CWA by
daybreak. Some spotty areas of drizzle will be possible but not
likely southeast of the I-71 corridor early this morning.

A low overcast sky cover will be the rule for today, with a low
diurnal temperature departure expected from this morning`s
lows. Looking for a 2-3 degree bump in temps from early morning
readings in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south, near 40 from
Columbus to Dayton to Brookville. Adding those 2-3 degrees, afternoon
highs should range from a little under 40 in west central Ohio
to a little under 45 in the southern 1/3 of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Overcast sky cover will remain cloudy through at least
Wednesday, likely longer. Took a leap and went a good 5 deg
warmer on overnight lows than NBM was giving.

This moist of an airmass is showing a diurnal today of about 3-4
degrees over the region, which is good. Unfortunately the
diurnal for tonight is 6-8 deg in the west and 9-11 deg in the
east. This is in no meteorological way happening with +1 dm
height increases at h5 and h7, +- 1/2 deg BL changes per GFS
overnight (0z-12z) overcast sky cover and a light <5kt east
wind. I believe models are flubbing tonight`s lows by a
category, possibly two. I liked that tomorrow`s highs were +- 1
deg from today`s which tells me again that the cloud cover will
be blanketing the region and lows can`t/shouldn`t be more than
3-4 (less) deg from highs.

With regards to all of that, tomorrow`s highs are ~ +1 deg from
today, around 42-47 deg. Tonight`s lows should be ~ 1-2 deg from
today`s high with a solid blanket of low clouds, looking at 38
in west central OH and 43-44 south and entire Scioto Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The precipitation threat will diminish Wednesday night, with a dry
day expected on Thursday as a weak mid level ridge tries to
establish itself across the region. A warming trend will continue.
After lows in the 30s, highs on Thursday will range from the lower
to mid 50s.

A couple of weather systems will affect our area Friday and into the
weekend, with the stronger system arriving later Saturday into
Sunday as a bonafide mid level trough and associated cold front.
These systems will result in more chances of rain along with warm
temperatures for late December. Highs will rise in the 50s with a
few lower 60s possible along and south of the Ohio River.

The region may get a brief respite in the pcpn threat on Monday as
one system departs and another system hurries along behind it in a
quasi-zonal flow aloft. Mild to warm temperatures will continue into
the end of 2024.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not much of a change from previous forecast. Any spotty drizzle
has exited at least the terminal areas in forecast area this
morning. MVFR cloud cover will be the norm for today, and CVG
could drop into IFR category given the tower height.

Removed the vsby restrictions that were in the previous forecast
tempo groups but kept the lower cigs. Just not seeing any
upstream locations with vsby restrictions as of forecast
issuance time.

Southwest wind will turn westerly and decrease this morning,
then go light and variable from late afternoon onwards. Wind
may actually be more of an east wind, but speeds will be 3kt or
less so variable/calm was the better forecast for this time
frame.

Model guidance is suggesting that a low stratus will be
entrenched over the CWA through the forecast period and beyond,
with patches of light rain working in from the southwest on
Wednesday morning. It is also suggesting that IFR or LIFR
cigs/vsbys in light rain are in the works for Wednesday, and
these being prevailing conditions versus the typical bouncing
between categories.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsbys likely Wednesday and again
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks