Alexandria, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

411
FXUS61 KILN 112347
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
747 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with light winds are expected to persist
through the period. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring showers and
embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The high pressure area centered over the Mid Atlantic is eroding and
very slowly drifting east, with slightly more diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon into the early
evening. The activity does have a focused area in the form of a weak
surface trough extending from central Ohio just west of Columbus
through the Miami Valley into Northern Kentucky. Forcing is somewhat
limited so showers are fairly short lived but there could be some
clustering and a more ample updraft here or there in this area, so
locally heavy rain is possible. Activity dies down by 00z with light
and variable winds and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high finally makes more eastward progress on Tuesday,
with an upper trough from the central plains finally approaching the
region, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
beginning Tuesday afternoon. Some potential for strong thunderstorms
in this more focused forcing and DCAPEs nearing 900 J/kg.
Thunderstorms should also be slow moving with such limited winds, so
heavy rain is a possibility with PWATs exceeding 2" in especially the
tri state area. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

As the trough draws closer to the forecast area Tuesday night, still
expecting marginal shear to approach the upper Miami Valley and
portions of West Central Ohio, though shear increases as diurnally
influenced instability wanes. This will keep at least scattered
shower and thunderstorms through Tuesday night, with lows near 70 to
lower 70s further south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-level disturbance will be moving through the Great Lakes to
start the period Wednesday morning. Despite limited instability, this
should present enough forcing for showers and thunderstorms to start
the day... more likely from central Ohio down through northern
Kentucky. Behind the disturbance, a weak cold front will focus
diurnal convection both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. This will
effectively hold temperatures down to near normal late summer levels.

Mid-level ridging and weak high pressure to our east will keep
shower/storm coverage spotty from Friday into the weekend and will
also bring a return to above normal temperatures and humidity.
Global ensembles hint at another trough dropping into the Great
Lakes late Sunday into Monday with another increase in precipitation
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few showers will be near KLUK and KDAY at the start of the TAF
period and therefore have a vcsh mention in. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected through the overnight hours and most of the
morning daytime hours. River valley fog is expected at KLUK
overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will start to pop up during the
afternoon and early evening hours on Tuesday. Have a PROB30 in for
thunderstorms with reduced visibility during that time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...