Wichita, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

613
FXUS63 KICT 121932
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated storms over Flint
  Hills/southeast KS this evening into Friday morning.

- Chances for storms Saturday night and again Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Upper low is currently situated across extreme northeast OK/far
southeast KS and is continuing to very slowly drift off to the
east/northeast. Water vapor imagery also shows some upper energy
coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest with a weaker
perturbation sliding across the Northern Plains. At the surface,
a cold front remains generally along the Nebraska/SD border.

Pockets of showers and drizzle have been ongoing across south
central and southeast KS since the morning hours. This looks to
be the result of moisture transport just off of the surface.
Also noticed looking at soundings that there is some extremely
shallow instability in place which is likely resulting in the
waves of heavy drizzle today. Showers and possibly an isolated
storm will be possible over mainly southeast KS tonight as the
upper low continues to slowly progress east. Currently thinking
we will not see much drizzle tonight as the depth of low level
saturation will not be as deep as it was this morning. However,
widespread low clouds will again be likely tonight into Fri
morning.

By 00z Sat, what is left of the upper low will be tracking
across the Ozark region and into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, upper ridging will start to strengthen across the
Southern Rockies into Western Mex, which will lift the stronger
westerlies from the Great Basin through the Northern Plains
starting Sat. There are a few models trying to develop
convection over the High Plains Fri night, but the CAMs seem to
be clustering across southwest Nebraska and western OK, so
confidence in this activity affecting us is very low. There
looks to potentially be better overnight storm chances Sat night
into Sun morning as both the GFS and ECMWF track some weak
upper energy out of the Central Rockies and across
Nebraska/northern KS Sat evening. This activity also looks to be
associated by a decent mid level baroclinic zone. With the
upper flow so weak, it`s tough to determine how storms will
track once they develop, so confidence remains low with this
activity affecting our forecast area.

It looks mostly dry to start the work week with highs around 90
degrees for most locations. There is good agreement between the
GFS and ECMWF in some shortwave energy tracking out of the
Central Rockies and across the Central Plains Tue afternoon.
This should bring another MCS across the Central Plains Tue
night, and may affect northern and eastern KS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Scattered light showers and low ceilings are leading to MVFR and
brief IFR conditions across south-central and southeastern
Kansas. This activity will persist for the next few hours before
ceilings lift to VFR levels. With increasing instability, an
isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon across
southeastern Kansas, but confidence remains too low to include
in the TAF at this time. Overnight, MVFR to IFR ceilings are
expected once again, lifting by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD