Ottawa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

809
FXUS63 KTOP 211728
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1128 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool today and tonight before a warming trend begins tomorrow
 afternoon.

-A cold front will move through dry late this weekend.

-Models continue to vary on precipitation solutions around
 Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The forecast area remains on the far southwestern periphery of a
large low pressure system centered over the northern Great Lakes
region this morning. Breezy, although not as strong as
yesterday, northwest winds will occur today where the pressure
gradient remains somewhat strong. However, surface high pressure
will expand over the area from the north as the day progresses.
That will keep skies clear and temperatures cool, topping out
in the 40s this afternoon. The surface ridge will make for a
very chilly night as temperatures drop into the low and mid 20s.

The surface ridge slides to the southeast on Friday and
southerly low level flow will return to the central US. That
will begin a warming trend on Friday with temperatures reaching
the upper 50s on Saturday. A persistent WAA pattern will take
temperatures into the mid 60s for the southeastern half of the
CWA ahead of a cold front on Sunday. That front will move
through the area Sunday midday and afternoon, shifting winds to
the north. Dry conditions are still expected with the frontal
passage. Much cooler conditions are then expected early next
week with highs in the 40s and overnight temps in the 20s.

Precipitation chances by midweek and for the Thanksgiving
timeframe remain highly uncertain given model variation from
each other and from run to run. The EC ensemble currently has a
30 to 50 percent chance of at least one inch of snow around
Thanksgiving, while the GFS ensemble chances are slightly lower.
However, individual members within each ensemble model continue
to vary widely on solutions. Details will hopefully become more
certain in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower troposphere. Winds
should back off quickly with sunset despite 925 mb winds around
20 knots. This wind should also be enough to entrain dry air
into the boundary layer to keep any BR formation in check.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Poage