Newton, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS63 KICT 021115
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms lingering this morning in the Flint Hills and
 southeast KS.

- Cool and wet pattern for Thu night through Sat night with
  multiple chances at rain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing with severe storms lingering
into the early morning hours over the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas. We continue to see advection of low level moisture
(dewpoints in the mid 60s) and a strongly sheared pbl. The activity
will diminish from west to east in the wake of a front/convective
outflow and is expected to clear southeast KS by around 14Z or
perhaps a bit sooner.

Mild and dry conditions are expected this afternoon as we remain on
the southern periphery of the mid/upper trough lifting into the
Upper Mississippi Valley. With some insolation and downslope flow we
expect to see mild conditions with highs in the 60s and 70s.

We could see some showers on Thursday as a shortwave trough emerges
from the Southern Rockies. We remain in a stable post-frontal regime
with seasonably cool temperatures anticipated. Afternoon highs are
expected to top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some elevated
cape over southeast KS may support some pockets of beneficial rain
while much of the area will only see light rainfall.

Fri-Sat...Precipitation chances are expected to ramp up as we move
into Friday as we remain within the entrance region to the upper jet
with PWATs progged to rise into the 1.25-1.5 inch range. The pool of
better instability is progged to remain south of the area but we are
still seeing a decent signal for widespread showers. As we move into
Sat the focus may shift into southeast KS while colder air is forced
south over the area. Highs on Sat may struggle to climb out of the
40s for much of central Kansas. Some wet snow may try to mix at
times but the colder air may arrive too late for measurable snow.

Seasonably cool and dry conditions are expected to arrive on Sunday
into Monday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures as we
move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thunderstorms will gradually exit southeast KS while residual
showers dissipate over central KS this morning. Following
this, confidence is high in VFR conditions prevailing at all
terminals through the end of the period. Strong westerly winds
gusting to 20-25 kts will pick up later this morning before dying
down later this evening. From here, winds will become light and
variable.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK