Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS63 KTOP 091919
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather is forecast by the middle of the week
  and into the weekend.

- There are off and on chances (20%-30%) for showers and storms
  for Thursday through next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the Great
Lakes with broad ridging over the west. There was a weak area of
shear and upper level cyclonic flow over the southwest. Surface
obs placed a surface low over the UP of Michigan with a
trailing frontal boundary through AR and into northeast TX.
Relative high pressure was noted over the high plains and into
the central plains.

Quiet weather is forecast for the next few days as models show
northwest flow persisting through Tuesday. There is some indication
from the short term models for moisture advection into southeast and
east central KS Tuesday afternoon with some modest surface based
instability developing. However models show no lift or forcing so
have kept a dry forecast going. Better moisture advection is progged
to take place into Wednesday with more typical summer time humidity
progged to set up into the weekend. The next chance for precip looks
to develop late Wednesday and into Thursday as the weak cyclonic
flow over the southwest amplifies and eventually lifts into eastern
KS. Probabilities from the NBM are in the 20 to 30 percent range and
this seems reasonable given the forecast QPF.

For Friday through Monday, models show a low amplitude pattern over
the central plains with potential perturbations within the flow.
Cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles showed there was not a lot of
differences from the mean. This leads to thinking the NBM is
probably a good forecast with little reason to change it. So low end
chances for precip remain in the forecast with a warm and humid
airmass expected to persist. Models show reasonable instability
driven by daytime heating each afternoon, but with no obvious
forcing mechanism to trigger convection severe weather appears to
be very conditional. Additionally upper level jet stream is progged
to lift north across the US and Canadian border bringing weaker flow
over the plains and lower bulk shear values. So there isn`t an
obvious time frame that severe storms look favorable. Highs are
expected to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s while overnight
lows only fall into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A lack of moisture advection within the northwest flow pattern
is forecast to keep VFR conditions in place.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters