Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS63 KTOP 132009
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moves through this afternoon and evening, bringing a
  chance (20-30%) for light rain to the area.

- North winds gusting at 25-35 MPH will usher in cooler air for
  Wednesday.

- Northwest winds strengthen to near-advisory levels on Friday.

- Elevated fire danger is possible Wednesday, Friday, and
  Saturday afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A perturbation diving south across the central CONUS has lead to
increased mid and high cloud cover today. This has slowed warming
even with downsloping westerly winds, but highs have still climbed
15-20 degrees above normal into the 50s. A cold front currently
located in southern Nebraska will push through the forecast
area through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening with
large-scale ascent and saturation above 800mb generating
showers along and behind the boundary. Not expecting much
rainfall, but CAMs show the potential for some gusty winds
within these showers. Instability will be weak, but some
steepening of mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated
rumble of thunder as well. Northerly winds strengthen behind the
boundary overnight, becoming gusty Wednesday morning. Gusts of
25-35 MPH in the morning will gradually weaken through the
afternoon, but gusty winds will still overlap with relative
humidity values of 25-40 percent, creating elevated fire danger
for a couple of hours. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to low 40s, although the gusty winds will make it feel
cooler. There continues to be a signal in guidance for some
isolated to scattered precipitation Wednesday morning given
steep low-level lapse rates and perhaps even some weak
instability. Best chances for this appear to be across north-
central and central Kansas where better low-level moisture
resides. Temperatures are above freezing in the lowest 2kft, so
the most likely precipitation type is rain, but could see some
snow mix in if the column cools faster than guidance suggests.

Surface ridging quickly slides south of the area Wednesday night and
the return of southerly winds on Thursday will bump temperatures
back into the mid 40s across far eastern Kansas and into the low 50s
across north central Kansas. A couple of potent perturbations shunt
a pair of cold fronts through the area late this week: the first
Thursday night and the second on Saturday. Strong northwest winds
approach advisory levels on Friday with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH
and gusts of 30-40 MPH. Winds relax somewhat on Saturday, but stay
breezy with gusts of 20-30 MPH forecast. Afternoon relative humidity
values of 25-40 percent could lead to elevated fire weather concerns
both days, but Friday looks more concerning at this point.
Temperatures will fall back below-normal on Saturday when highs
may not reach freezing. There could be some light precipitation
with these passing waves/fronts as well, but confidence in any
impactful amounts is very low. Spread in temperatures has
narrowed for Sunday, but there remains a long tail on the cool
side of the distribution. While forecast highs from the NBM are
in the 40s, only 30-50% of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members have
highs exceeding 40 degrees on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. A cold front will
move through terminals this evening, bringing a chance for
showers. Coverage of -RA remains uncertain, but any impacts to
terminals should be limited, although any showers could produce
brief gusty winds. Winds increase from the north overnight and
become gusty Wednesday morning. Cigs may drop to MVFR late in
this TAF period, but confidence is too low for inclusion at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday, Friday, and
Saturday afternoons.

North winds increase overnight and become gusty Wednesday morning
with gusts of 25-35 MPH. These gusts will gradually weaken through
the afternoon from north to south, but could still be gusting
at 20-25 MPH south of Interstate 70 when relative humidity
values are at their minimum (30-40%). The window for very high
fire danger appears to be limited to an hour or two during the
mid-afternoon before winds diminish and relative humidity
recovers. Friday looks to be a more concerning fire weather day.
Northwest winds sustained at 20-30 MPH and gusts of 30-40 MPH
are forecast with minimum relative humidity values of 30-40
percent. Slightly weaker winds are forecast on Saturday, but
gusts of 25-30 MPH and afternoon relative humidity of 25-35
percent could still create elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan