Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

514
FXUS63 KTOP 021739
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler Temperatures expected late this week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Early this morning at 0730Z, a mid level trough continues over the
western states. A lead wave was moving out of New Mexico while a
surface frontal boundary was starting to be more progressive moving
to the east across south central into northeast Kansas. Surface dew
points have increased to around 60 degrees across east central
Kansas as a 55 to 65kt low level jet continues to transport moisture
northward into eastern Kansas and western MO. Storm relative
helicity showing 500 m2/s2 in sfc to 1km and 300 m2/s2 sfc to 500m
across east central Kansas corresponding to the higher moisture
axis. Sig Tor parameter lines up well with the area of the current
TOR watch in east central Kansas. The LLJ will veer a bit to the
southwest focusing the moisture drainboard into MO. Expect the
convective line to move through through by 13Z this morning off into
Missouri, ending the severe weather threat. With the convective line
becoming more progressive, flash flooding will also become less
likely. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms,
where rainfall rates could be around an inch per hour.

The surface low over northeast Kansas at 07Z will move northeast
into Iowa by 18Z as the lead mid level wave rotates northeast into
Nebraska and South Dakota. Any wrap around showers in north central
Kansas will come to an end by mid morning.

A southwest flow will remain over the southern into the central
Plains through Saturday when the mid level trough moves across
Kansas. Persistent energy will eject out of the trough and into the
central Plains late Thursday through Saturday, some isentropic lift
will also contribute to showers and and few storms as moisture is
transported northwest into eastern Kansas at 850mb -700mb layer. For
Sunday through next Tuesday as dry northwest flow is expected along
with a surface high over the region. Temperatures will remain on the
cooler side of normal with highs mainly in the 50s Thursday through
Monday, then warming back into the 60s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A surface cold front is moving through the KMHK terminal and
should move across the KTOP and KFOE terminals by 21Z. Behind
the front BKN stratocu will form with ceilings between
3200-4500 feet. I cannot rule out an isolated rain shower. Near
sunset the stratocu will dissipate and winds will become light
and variable.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Gargan