Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS63 KTOP 241145
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
545 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures should persist through the weekend.

- There will be a penitential for some patchy dense fog
  Christmas morning.

- There are off and on chances for light rain through Saturday,
  the better rain chances will be Thursday night (30-60%
  chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Early this morning an upper trough extended from western KS south-
southwest across west TX. The southern extent of the upper
trough was more amplified across west TX. An upper trough was
located off the west coast.

The 7Z surface analysis showed a surface cold front extending from
the eastern Great Lakes, southwest across the mid MS River Valley
into northeast OK, then southwest across southwest TX. Stronger
isentropic lift combined with ascent ahead of the west TX upper
trough was causing a large area of light rain across southwest and
central OK. This rain will remain south of the CWA. I cannot rule
out a few sprinkles or light drizzle across the far southeast
counties of the CWa during the early morning hours.

Today through Christmas (Wednesday):

The H5 trough across the Plains and west TX will shift east
through Tonight. The more amplifies section of the H5 trough will be
across central TX and eastern OK. The area of better isentropic lift
will occur across northeast TX, AR into southeast MO. The CWA should
remain dry. All the CAMs show no measurable precipitation
across the CWA. However, the weak ascent ahead of the H5 rough axis
across central and eastern KS will keep skies cloudy Today. Light
northeast winds will keep highs in the 40s.

Christmas day (Wednesday), there may be some patchy to areas of fog
developing through the early morning hours. Some of the
numerical guidance is showing light easterly winds advecting
some residual moisture westward into a colder airmass. Thus,
some of the fog may be dense in the 4 AM - 9 AM time period.
Though some guidance shows only low stratus developing. At this
time, I placed in patchy fog in the forecast grids.

The H5 trough across the western US will move east and amplify as it
moves into central Rockies through the day. A surface ridge of high
pressure across northeast KS will shift east through the day.
The light easterly surface winds will gradually veer to the
southeast. Skies will be cloudy through the day, even if the low
stratus scatters out during the afternoon hours, high mid
clouds will overspread the region, ahead of the H5 trough
across the central Rockies. Highs will reach the mid to upper
40s.

Wednesday night through Saturday:

The H5 trough across the central Rockies will amplify as it moves
into the Plains. Residual moisture will advect northward ahead of a
lee surface trough across the central and southern high Plains. May
see light drizzle develop first as WAA into the lightly cooler
airmass saturates the low-levels of the atmosphere with just enough
isentropic lift for areas of drizzle developing after 6Z THU. As
the H5 trough moves into the Plains, the DCVA will increase and the
resulting ascent should cause light rain to develop. The richer
moisture will remain south of a warm front across southeast OK. A
secondary H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest
and rapidly dig southeast into the northern and central high Plains
on Friday. The DCVA ahead of the amplifying H5 through will keep the
chance for light rain through Friday. Another fast moving H5 trough
embedded within the northwest flow at mid levels will move
southeast across KS Friday night into Saturday morning. This
will keep the rain chances going through 18Z Saturday, but the
H5 trough axis will shift east of the area by Saturday
afternoon. At least temperatures should remain above freezing
Friday night into Saturday morning, so the precipitation type
will be rain. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

Sunday through Monday, the upper flow will be west-northwest across
the Plains. Expect warm temperatures with highs in the mid to upper
50s. An H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest
on Sunday and then dig into the central Rockies by Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday: The H5 trough across the central
Rockies will dig southeast across the Plains and amplify. The DCVA
ahead of the H5 trough and may cause some light rain, which
could mix with or change to light snow late Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Once again the ECMWF is more amplified with the
H5 trough and digs the trough farther south across southern KS.
The Canadian and GFS are not as amplified and track the upper
trough farther north keeping most of the precipitation northeast
of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning. Expect a cool
down on Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s north to mid 40s
southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

There is a large area of low stratus with LIFR ceilings of
500-600 feet moving south-southwest across the northern counties
of the northeast KS. The timing for the low stratus affecting
all terminals will be between 1500-1530Z TUE. The low stratus
will remain in place through most of the afternoon but will
scatter out late this afternoon. There may be a several hour
period of VFR ceilings but after 7Z WED the low clouds and
possibly areas of fog may reform and last through 12Z WED

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan