Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS63 KDDC 241027
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild December will continue, with both sunrise and afternoon
  temperatures averaging well above normal.

- Areas of light rain are possible in or near SW KS Thursday,
  but a more southward storm track has reduced rainfall
  potential significantly.

- A very quiet weather regime will continue, with no impacts
  expected through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Shortwave was diving south through the Rockies at midnight, with
widespread midlevel cloud decks over SW KS. Surface observations
were showing stratus from Liberal to Pratt across the southern
zones, and this stratus is expected to be pushed southward out
of Kansas later this morning. There may be some areas of drizzle
near the Oklahoma border through Tuesday morning, but certainly
pops will remain dry (<15%).

Decreasing clouds are expected Tuesday, as the Rockies shortwave
digs into NW TX, and subsidence takes over. With the assistance
of the returning sunshine, afternoon temperatures will warm
easily into the lower 50s. A surface ridge of high pressure over
SW KS will keep pressure gradients and winds very weak Tuesday,
averaging 10 mph or less, variable in direction.

Transitory ridge axis spreads over SW KS Christmas morning, as
the next shortwave rapidly advances to near the Four Corners by
noon Christmas Day. Elevated southeast winds are expected
Christmas Day, in response to lee cyclogenesis in SE Colorado.
Loaded the 90%ile of the NBM for these SE winds Wednesday, with
winds averaging 20-30 mph especially western zones and the
preferred US 83 corridor. Southeast winds in winter are not warm
winds, and afternoon temperatures will remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.

All guidance now tracks the midlevel cyclone significantly
further south, compared to previous guidance, a southward trend
that was first noticed by the 00z ECMWF/EPS runs last night. As
a result, NBM pops have been reduced markedly from previous
solutions, down to the slight chance category for many. Indeed,
many locations will remain dry, and fail to receive measurable
rainfall. 00z GEFS/EPS ensembles have reduced the probability of
QPF > 0.10 inch to only 20-30% Thursday, and this is confined to
the southeast zones adjacent to Oklahoma. Most of Thursday`s
rainfall will be well removed from SW KS, across the Red River
valley of North Texas. 00z ECMWF still suggests minimal QPF up
to 0.05 inch is probable in some locations of SW KS; this would
still be the first measurable precipitation this December. Thick
cloud cover will keep temperatures seasonably chilly Thursday
in the 40s.

Another shortwave will dive in right on the heels of Thursday`s
system, with models suggesting another opportunity for some
light rain Friday. NBM pops are in the conservative 20-40% range
for Friday, which were accepted. Anything that falls Friday is
expected to be light and liquid rain.

Models show dry weather with another warming trend next weekend,
with afternoon temperatures easily returning to at least the
lower 60s Sunday. All guidance agrees on a strong cold front
passage around Monday, with strong north winds and cold
advection. Much colder air would follow New Year`s Eve/Day, but
early indications are any snowfall would remain primarily
northeast of SW KS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 427 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Broken midlevel clouds will clear through Tuesday. Excellent
flying weather is expected through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC
and light and variable winds less than 10 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner