Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

581
FXUS63 KDDC 160528
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across our
  southern zones, however weak winds aloft should limit this
  threat.

- Higher confidence in severe thunderstorm risk Saturday
  afternoon with better mid-level winds, however convective
  coverage questions linger.

- Severe thunderstorm chances continue into early next week,
  followed by a strong cold front Monday night which will knock
  temperatures down to near-normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**

Environment for tonight`s slight risk continues to be mainly a
dry downburst threat. DDC sounding from 18Z showed a stout cap
in the mid levels and this is further reflected with a strong
cap across much of southwest Kansas. The cap is eroding in
northeast New Mexico with cumulus clouds developing. Over the
next few hours we could see more isolated to scattered storms
develop over far southwest Kansas in areas of DCAPE in the
1400-1600 J/kg range which will support downburst winds over 50
mph. 0-6 km shear values are still weak so the hail threat is
minimal at best.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal nearly zonal flow is in place atop the central plains, with a
stronger belt of westerlies just to our north from NE into south-
central Canada. At the surface, weak low pressure is centered just
east of Liberal, with a quasi-stationary front extending to the
northeast. Locations to the north of this boundary will see a few
degrees shaved off afternoon temperatures today with highs in the
low to mid 90s while to the south will be in the upper 90s/low 100s.
Later this afternoon, CAM guidance suggests high-based thunderstorm
development is likely across far northeast NM and adjacent areas,
aided by a weak shortwave trough ejecting from the southern Rockies
onto the southern plains and modestly cool mid-level temperatures.
As this activity tracks eastward, some potential exists for our
southern counties to be clipped, posing a marginal risk for damaging
wind gusts, however weak deep-layer shear will limit the scope of
this threat. A secondary area for potential thunderstorm development
will be farther north along the aforementioned boundary across our
northeast zones. While this activity will be closer to the stronger
winds aloft, deep-layer shear is still expected to be insufficient
to support more than an isolated damaging wind gust threat.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree upper level longwave
troughing will begin to materialize west of the Rockies, allowing
southwesterly mid-level flow to increase over the central plains.
Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur in response over southeast CO,
resulting in southeasterly winds to become established across
southwest KS by mid-afternoon. Temperatures will remain largely
unchanged from Friday as afternoon highs range from the low/mid
90s northeast to the upper 90s/low 100s southwest. Another
round of afternoon thunderstorms is possible as convection may
initiate over the higher terrain of eastern CO and move east-
northeast into southwest KS. With the stronger southwesterly
mid-level flow in place, deep-layer shear will be much more
supportive of updraft organization, however CAMs are not in
agreement regarding convective coverage. Nevertheless, after
coordination with SPC, portions of western KS will be upgraded
to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree
the upper level trough west of the Rockies will persist through at
least Tuesday, supporting continued thunderstorm chances Sunday and
Monday, followed by a strong cold front Monday night that will draw
much cooler temperatures equatorward. At the moment, Monday appears
to be the highest risk for severe convection favoring the eastern
half of our CWA as a potent shortwave trough embedded within the
larger parent trough ejects onto the central plains, however
predictability at this range is limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Generally light winds will prevail through 00z. However, a low
level jet will form by 01-02z, with surface winds gusting to 35
kts through the end of the period (with the exception of KHYS).
There is a small chance (10-30%) of thunderstorms at the KHYS
terminal after 23z, with wind gusts 40-50 kts possible.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Tatro
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Finch