Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

323
FXUS63 KDDC 021009
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with widespread elevated fire risk.

- Widespread, multi-day precipitation event coming into focus
  Thursday through Saturday.

- Snow chances appear to be improving west of Dodge City
  Saturday as gusty north winds develop. To early to determine
  any snow accumulation.

- Unseasonably cold air settles into southwest Kansas late this
  weekend. Some locations may struggle to climb above 40. There
  is a 40-60% chances west of Highway 293 that highs will be
  below 40 degrees Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A pattern shift occurring will result in cool and wet weather
for southwest Kansas late week and over the weekend.

For today...High pressure at the surface will build into the
West Central High Plains today behind a cold front which was
moving across central Kansas and northern Oklahoma earlier this
morning. There is a 30-50% chance for wind gusts to be greater
than 30mph north of Dodge City today while south of Dodge City
the chance for wind gusts to be this strong is less than 20%.
The reason this is important is because the lowest humidity
values will be located south and west of Dodge City. As a result
widespread elevated fire weather conditions can be expected
today. Still even with only elevated fire weather conditions
expected today outdoor burning is discouraged.

Thursday through the weekend...Models continue to agree with a
high amplitude upper level trough/low establishing itself over
the western United States during the last half of the work week
as several weaker upper waves move from the base of this upper
trough and into the Plains. As each of these upper waves pass
there appears to be enough mid level moisture and lift that
scattered showers and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder
will accompany each of the upper waves. The better chance for
thunder will accompany our first upper wave which will cross
southwest Kansas on Thursday but the better chance for
widespread accumulating rainfall appears to be accompanying our
second upper wave on Friday. There is a 20-40% chance from the
LREF for a 24hour precipitation total >0.2 being possible
between 1am Thursday to 1 am Friday. There is a 60-80% chance
for 24 hour precipitation totals to be >0.3 being possible
between 1pm Friday and 1pm Saturday. Severe weather is not
anticipated from either event late this week but it does appear
that the atmosphere may be cold enough for the rain Friday night
into the Saturday to mix with or even change over to snow
before ending.


Snow chances this weekend...As the upper low deepens over the
southwest United States late week a northern branch upper level
trough will exit Central Canada and move towards the Western
Great Lakes Region. All of the ensembles and deterministic
models are in good agreement with this northern upper wave and
as this wave moves into the Western Great Lakes this will allow
some colder air from Canada to quickly drop south into the
Central United States. The biggest uncertainty over the weekend
is the magnitude of the cold air that will return to southwest
Kansas following the cold frontal passage Friday night.
Currently based on the magnitude of the cold air advertised by
over 50% of the models across the Northern Plains, the 35 to
45knot 850 winds forecast Friday night and Saturday, and the
deep upper low positioned over southern Arizona will be favoring
the colder and quicker solutions which may result in a quicker
change over to snow Saturday. This may even result in some
accumulating snow before the precipitation ends Saturday night.
Not all of the clusters are suggesting this accumulating
snowfall scenario but it is something we will be closely
monitoring given that the ECMWF extreme forecast index for snow
across southwest Kansas is 0.5 to 0.7 with a Shift of Tails of
1.0.  At this time it is too early to determine how much snow
will fall from this event, if it does occur, but confidence is
high (70%) that any snow accumulation that does occur Saturday
will be west of Dodge City. It is also interesting to see that
the WSSI-P from WPC has a 30 to 50% chance for minor impacts
from this upcoming event due to snow and blowing snow. The
reason may be that during the same time we are expecting some
gusty north winds with 70% of the ensemble clusters suggesting
wind gusts of 35 mph or higher.

Unseasonably cold late this weekend...Beside the chance of snow
this weekend some unseasonably cold temperatures will also be
possible over the weekend period. Current guidance has
temperatures this weekend in the 40s and 50s which may end up
being too warm given clouds, gusty north winds and widespread
precipitation. Given just this alone anyone with outdoor plans
should be prepared for the potential (25% chance) for highs
Saturday to struggle to climb out of the 30s. There is a 40-60%
chances west of Highway 293 that highs will be below 40 degrees
Saturday. The lows this weekend will fall back well into the 20s
with even a few locations seeing early morning temperatures in
the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

An area of low VFR ceilings (4000-8000ft AGL) will give way to
clearing skies after 15z as an upper level trough exits western
Kansas and moves into Nebraska. Between 15z and 18z today the
stronger winds in the boundary layer will mix down to the
surface which will result inn west northwest winds increasing
into the 15 to 20 knot range. These gusty winds early this
afternoon will then gradually decrease late day with wind speeds
falling below 10knot by or shortly after 00z Thursday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert