Great Bend, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXUS63 KICT 121732
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower and storm chances over the next couple of days along
  and east of the Kansas Turnpike.

- Potential for increased storm chances Saturday morning into
  the beginning of next week.

- Above normal temperatures forecast for this weekend and the
  beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A broad and weak deep layer trough continues to loiter across
the southern plains early this morning, and a plume of moisture
in association with this system is stretching northward from the
Gulf and eastern Pacific and into portions of the central
plains. As a result, a few showers are overspreading portions of
southern and southeast Kansas this morning. Intermittent
showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are expected to
continue throughout much of the day for locations along and east
of the Turnpike. Despite cooler temperatures aloft allowing for
some instability across the area this afternoon, lapse rates
are still expected to be under 6 C/km, and deep layer shear will
be under 10 knots. Therefore, severe storms are not expected,
but brief heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible. This
trough trudges northeastward on Friday, and additional showers
and storms will still be possible across far southeast Kansas.
However, rising height and subsidence aloft Friday afternoon and
evening should end rain chances fairly early in the day.

With this disturbance`s departure along with the amplification of
mid/upper ridging across the southwestern CONUS, much of the central
plains will reside in northwest flow by the weekend. Global models
continue to suggest weak perturbations in the flow skating across
the central plains this weekend which would leave the door open
for a couple rounds of isolated showers and storms moving off
the High Plains and eastward into the forecast area. The first
potential round of storms could be early Saturday morning.
However, warm mid-level temperatures may limit thunderstorm
maintenance and development. Kept PoPs fairly low Saturday
morning as a result. Another weak wave will pass over the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning which will present another
opportunity at a round of storm chances.

Long range global models show this pattern generally continuing into
early next week with mid/upper ridging weakening across the
southwestern CONUS, and a train of shortwave perturbations
translating across the central plains. As such, active weather could
be in store early next week, but finer details, such as the
potential for severe weather, continue to remain out focus at this
time. Additionally, the pattern remains favorable for warmer
temperatures going into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Scattered light showers and low ceilings are leading to MVFR and
brief IFR conditions across south-central and southeastern
Kansas. This activity will persist for the next few hours before
ceilings lift to VFR levels. With increasing instability, an
isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon across
southeastern Kansas, but confidence remains too low to include
in the TAF at this time. Overnight, MVFR to IFR ceilings are
expected once again, lifting by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD