Dodge City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS63 KDDC 102005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will be dry through next weekend.

- There is a brief chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
  night, southeast of Dodge City.

- Afternoon temperatures will remain mild, pleasant and well
  above November normals.

- No hard killing freezes expected through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Very quiet weather with no impacts. Midday satellite imagery
depicted a perfectly clear sky over SW KS and the entire region,
vividly outlining the impressive snowpack over eastern Colorado.
Snow cover is far enough west of the state line, such that there
are no refrigeration effects on SW KS temperatures. Temperatures
will cruise to the warmest guidance or higher this afternoon,
assisted by full sun, gentle westerly downslope and a +8C jump
in 850 mb temperatures.

Clear and quiet tonight, mainly in the 30s Monday morning, with
another light freeze (28-32) west of US 83.

Veteran`s Day Monday will offer fantastic fall weather with
light and variable winds, trending light SEly in the afternoon,
and well above normal afternoon temperatures well into the 60s.
Under zonal midlevel flow aloft, clouds will be few and pressure
gradients weak.

A strong progressive shortwave is forecast to be over the Great
Basin 6 am Tuesday, then be over the spine of the Colorado
Rockies 6 pm Tuesday. In response to the approaching shortwave,
lee troughing will deepen in eastern Colorado, which will in
turn produce strong south winds Tuesday. 12z GFS/ECMWF guidance
and their ensembles all depict 850 mb flow as high as 45-50 mph
during peak heating Tuesday afternoon, so given a warm mixed
boundary layer, gusts to that caliber are probable. Increased
Tuesday`s wind grids toward the strongest guidance (12z MAV or
the 90%ile of the NBM). 12z MET/MAV guidance forecast sustained
winds of 25-30 mph. Indeed, 12z GEFS ensembles show >90%
probability of sustained winds > 20 kts along the US 283
corridor around noon Tuesday. Some modest moisture return from
the Gulf of Mexico is expected, with dewpoints around 50.
Despite increasing clouds, afternoon temperatures will still
warm well into the 60s.

Models consistently show the shortwave passing SW KS Tuesday
night through sunrise Wednesday. Forcing for ascent of the
shortwave will be strong, and will interact with whatever
moisture is available east of the surging cold front/dryline
to create a narrow window of shower/thunderstorm potential.
ECMWF-based guidance is most optimistic with this, showing
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly southeast of Dodge City,
mainly midnight - 6 am Wednesday. NBM now has a relative max in
its pop fields during this time frame, well into the chance
category focused on the southeast zones, and slight chance
(15-24%) for much of the CWA. These pops were accepted, along
with marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC near the
Oklahoma border. Progressive shortwaves have great difficulty
producing meaningful precipitation in SW KS during the cold
season, but given it will not be very cold, with a decent
injection of warm/humid air, a few thunderstorms seem probable
Tuesday night...again strongly favoring southeast zones. Most
locations will remain dry. NBM hung onto pops far too long into
Wednesday and after coordinating with neighboring WFOs removed
them.

Post frontal airmass will be of Pacific origin, and therefore
only slightly cooler, with elevated northwest winds Wednesday.
Another rapid warmup will ensue, with a broad ridge axis
Thursday and strong SWly flow Friday. Suspect NBM is not warm
enough Friday, with 12z GEFS probability of temperatures
over 70 already 30-40%. 12z MEX has a high of 71 at DDC Friday,
which seems more on track.

Unseasonably warm and breezy again Saturday, as the first piece
of the incoming Pacific trough passes well north of SW KS. The
secondary, more southern portion of the trough will probably be
our next chance of significant precipitation, as it ejects into
SW KS around Monday November 18th, as shown by 12z ECMWF and
the EPS ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Excellent flying weather through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC
and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner