Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS63 KICT 241135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers depart southeast KS by early afternoon

- Fog, some potentially dense, is expected this evening into
  Christmas Day

- Additional rain chances possible Thursday & Friday-Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

As of 4 AM on this eve of Christmas, a midlevel shortwave trough
continues to progress through portions of the central and southern
Plains. An attendant, inverted, surface trough extends from north TX
through northeastern OK. Thus far, the overlap of sufficient and
forcing for ascent has remained across extreme southeastern KS and
into OK/MO. Given the east to west track of the midlevel shortwave
trough, expect this trend to hold and only far southeast KS
receiving rainfall this morning. Rainfall will depart southeast KS
by early afternoon.

Taking a look to our north, an expansive surface ridge axis extends
from west-central KS into NE/IA/MN. Within this ridge axis,
widespread fog, some dense, is ongoing. This ridge axis will
continue to progress southward into our forecast area through the
day today. This will promote generally light winds and decreasing
cloud cover this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will rebound to
near 50 for most locations.

Transitioning into this evening and tonight, the aforementioned
surface ridge axis will setup from central KS into northeast KS.
This will result in a gentle upslope low-level flow pattern
across much of the forecast area. This gentle upslope flow
combined with residual boundary layer moisture will create a
favorable setup for widespread fog development. The most-dense
fog is likely to develop near the ridge axis across central KS.
Visibility as low as a quarter mile is possible. Surface
temperatures are forecast to tumble into the upper 20s across
central KS and may result in a few slick spots, elevated
surfaces. Nevertheless, should the short term trends hold, a
Dense Fog Advisory will be needed for this evening through
Christmas morning.

For Christmas Day, fog will persist through midday, especially
across central KS. Due to the fog likely to linger through midday,
have trended temperatures slightly cooler with highs now in the mid
to upper 40s across central KS and near 50 across southern/southeast
KS.

A more-robust midlevel trough is progged to eject into the Plains
Thursday and looks to support precipitation chances.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue remain consistent with
a more-southern track across the Red River. While rainfall is still
probable for most areas, this southern track will keep the heaviest
totals across OK and TX. At this point, thermal profiles continue to
support an all-rain precipitation type. The active weather pattern
will continue into the weekend with a series of perturbations
traversing the Plains. This will bring more precipitation chances to
the area. Again, thermal profiles support an all-rain precipitation
type.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

VFR conditions have returned at all sites except CNU where MVFR
remain. Expect MVFR CIGS will continue at CNU through much of
the period. The chief concern during the period is the
development of fog, potentially dense, late this evening into
the overnight. Anticipate fog formation to occur northeast of
the terminals and advect southwest towards the terminals. Placed
the most likely time of arrival at SLN, HUT, and ICT. Arrival
times at GBD and RSL looks to be near 12Z Wednesday and the
greatest fog potential looks to remain northwest of CNU.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF