Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS63 KICT 142324
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures continue into the weekend, with highs in the
  middle to upper 60s.

- Widespread rain event expected Sunday night into Monday.

- Much cooler air anticipated to arrive middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Current satellite water vapor imagery depicts strong
zonal/northwesterly flow aloft this afternoon as a longwave
approaches the Pacific coast. At the surface, relatively light winds
prevail over the Central Plains as the last storm system continues
to move into Appalachia.

Zonal flow and upper ridging aloft will result in mild high
temperatures throughout the forecast area through the weekend.
Breezy winds are expected to develop and remain as the surface
pressure gradient tightens through Saturday ahead of a weak surface
trough. This boundary is not expected to provide forcing sufficient
for precipitation in our area.

Better dynamical forcing for rain is progged to arrive late Sunday
into Monday as a negatively-tilted upper jet ejects out of the
Southern Rockies and moves into the Southern/Central Plains. Given
exceptional PW values (around 1.6") for this time of year alongside
EFI/SoT guidance from the EPS, a widespread anomalous precipitation
event is expected during this timeframe. NBM guidance suggests
moderate chances (>50%) for total rainfall to exceed 2" in areas
between US-56 and a line extending from Anthony to Wichita and along
Interstate 35. Ensemble (NAEFS) guidance has trended higher PW
values within the moisture axis with each successive run up to this
point, so locally higher amounts are certainly possible throughout
the region.

This system is expected to exit the region by late Monday into
Tuesday. The long-range deterministic suite agrees in 1000-500 mb
thicknesses supporting colder-than-normal temperatures from there,
but disagrees on additional precipitation chances. The GFS/Canadian
keep the area dry while the Euro looks to bring additional rain
chances back to the region. This latter solution may in turn result
in the first snow chances in the area this fall, but confidence in
both the timing and details of this potential event remain quite low
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours.

The main aviation concern the next 24 hours will be increasing
stout/gusty southeasterly winds by around midday Friday,
especially over the western three-fourths of Kansas, as High
Plains lee troughing deepens. Gusts up to around 25-30 kts are
likely.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK