Augusta, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS63 KICT 140524
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms are possible tonight across central
  and south-central Kansas.

- Overnight storm chances will continue through the weekend and
  into early next week.

- Temperatures near, or just above, normal are expected through
  the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Radar and satellite imagery shows the midlevel low swirling off to
our east. This has lead to persistent cloud cover across eastern
Kansas through the morning and early afternoon hours. Dense, low
clouds and fog this morning has cleared with partly cloudy skies
across the state this afternoon. As ridging builds into the region
from the west, a corridor of decent WAA is expected across central
and western Kansas. This, along with strong upslope flow and
moderate instability will lead to the development of rain and storms
across western Kansas later this afternoon and evening. This
activity, in the presence of weak shear, will form into an MCS that
will move southeast into central Kansas during the overnight hours.
A slightly less supportive environment is expected across central
Kansas with instability of around 1500 J/kg and shear values of
around 25 kt. This will support a few stronger wind gusts and small
hail before storms diminish overnight.

The midlevel ridge axis will remain just to our west over the course
of the weekend which will continue to support diurnally driven,
upslope flow convection developing in the High Plains during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. This activity will move
southeastward during the overnight hours. Models continue to suggest
that Sunday remains the best chance for convection to persist into
central and eastern Kansas through the morning hours. With the ridge
building into the region, we`ll continue to see warmer temperatures
over the next several days with highs reaching into the upper 80s to
lower 90s with lows around 70.

A weak trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing moderate chances (40-60%) of rainfall to the area. At this
time, an MCS looks to develop Tuesday night that will dive
southeastward impacting the forecast area into early Wednesday
morning. Behind this activity, a stout ridge looks to build into the
region bringing a drier pattern and much warmer temperatures. High
temperatures for the second half of next week will reach into the
lower to middle 90s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Primary concern continues to be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms beginning around 04Z this morning and
lasting through the mid/late morning hours before moving into Oklahoma.
Highest confidence is in impacts in central and south central
KS, though some of the latest guidance hints at low chances for
impacts as far east as CNU. As such, decided to introduce a
PROB30 for -TSRA there, with prevailing thunder mentions at all
other sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK