Andover, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

106
FXUS63 KICT 221132
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures through Friday or Saturday, with
  record high temperatures in jeopardy.

- An eventual cool down by late Saturday or Sunday.

- Mostly dry weather through the next 7 days.

- Elevated grassfire danger possible Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

TEMPERATURES:

The warmup begins today, with increasing thickness and southerly
flow supporting low-mid 60s. It may be a later day warmup further
east over southeast Kansas where low clouds will be slower to burn
off. The well above average temperatures persist Tuesday through
Friday or Saturday, warmest over generally the southern half of
Kansas further removed from the surface trough axis. The warmest
days look to be Wed-Thu, when low-level thickness values support
highs up to the mid-upper 70s. May even see an 80-degree reading
Christmas Day over far southern Kansas. Since these values are near
the upper end of model climatology, record high temperatures will be
in jeopardy, with record warm lows in the 50s to near 60 degrees
likely, warmest over southeast Kansas.

As we head into the weekend, model consensus has converged on a
mostly common solution, with a strong cold front surging south
through the region, supporting a cool down by later Saturday or
Sunday. For now only cooled daytime highs into the 40s-50s, although
raw model output supports the potential for 30s-40s for Sunday and
possibly Monday as well.

Taking a look ahead toward New Years, deterministic and ensemble
consensus supports a return to above average temperatures.

PRECIPITATION:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support zero
precipitation chances through at least Saturday, as stout upper
ridging builds east over the Heartland. Thereafter (Sunday through
mid next week), there are some hints for increasing precipitation
chances as some semblance of a western CONUS upper trough
approaches, but uncertainty remains high this far out given very
poor run-to-run and model-to-model consistency.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR ceilings will encompass much of the eastern one-half to
one-third of Kansas through at least mid-morning, gradually
clearing from the west through mid-late morning and early
afternoon. Additionally, a few hours of low-level wind shear
within the lowest 1500 ft AGL will prevail through early to
mid-morning at ICT-HUT-SLN, due to a 45 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet.

Later tonight after about 09z, confidence is increasing that
IFR to LIFR visibilities/ceilings will develop over southeast
Kansas. The greatest confidence TAF site is CNU, although patchy
IFR to LIFR conditions may be possible as far northwest as ICT
and HUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Well above average temperatures and breezy/gusty south winds should
support HIGH to VERY HIGH grassland fire danger Wednesday and
especially Thursday. Not expecting critical/red flag fire danger due
to higher dewpoints and associated unfavorable relatively
humidity.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Record High Temperatures in jeopardy this week:

TODAY DECEMBER 22...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Russell          65                68 (1964)


TUESDAY DECEMBER 23...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Wichita          64                67 (1893)
Chanute          68                68 (1982)


THURSDAY DECEMBER 25...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Wichita          76                68 (2019)
Salina           74                69 (1922)
Chanute          76                71 (1922)
Russell          73                75 (1950)


FRIDAY DECEMBER 26...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Wichita          70                69 (2021)
Salina           67                67 (2008)
Chanute          69                75 (2021)
Russell          68                72 (2021)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
CLIMATE...ADK/BRF