Andover, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS63 KICT 131139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/storms possible this morning, mainly along and west
  of a line from Great Bend to Harper

- Additional storms are possible tonight,  especially across
  central/south-central   KS

- Storm chances, especially at nighttime, continue into next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

As of 230 AM Friday morning, the stubborn midlevel low continues to
meander across northeast OK. Widely scattered showers/storms
continue within its vicinity. A secondary area of showers/storms are
ongoing across northwest KS. The most favorable zone for low/mid
level WAA is west of our forecast area, therefore the prospects of
showers/storms is low this morning. Between the two areas of
showers/storms and the associated cloud cover, sits an area
relatively cloud-free. This area is quickly becoming overtaken by
low clouds and patchy fog. These low clouds and fog will persist
through mid-morning before scattering. Shower/storm chances will
continue across southeast KS this afternoon with the midlevel low
remaining nearby. Another area of thunderstorm development is
expected across northeast CO/northwest KS and adjacent areas of
NE/WY. These storms are likely to grow upscale into an MCS during
the evening hours and push towards central KS. The best WAA is
likely to remain west of I-135 and have placed the greatest rain
chances across central KS Saturday morning. An additional axis of
shower/storm development is possible late tonight along the eastern
periphery of the 850mb LLJ from portions of west-central KS into
south-central KS. For both areas of convection, elevated instability
up to 1500 J/kg with effective shear values less than 25 kt will
support wind gusts near 50 mph and dime size hail.

The midlevel ridge axis will remain across the southwest US Saturday
night through Monday with perturbations rounding the ridge and
ejecting into the Plains. There remains a signal for afternoon storm
development across the High Plains Saturday afternoon with upscale
growth and an MCS moving across a portion of the region Saturday
night/Sunday morning. Where that evolution ultimately takes place
hinges on the extent and duration of WAA driven thunderstorms
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Multiple global models and
the HREF suggest the WAA driven storms will persist in the vicinity
of the I-135 corridor well-into the afternoon hours. This scenario
would likely lessen the potential for an MCS passage Saturday night.
As the strength of the LLJ increases Saturday night, additional WAA
driven storms are possible, in-advance of any MCS passage.

These challenging forecast scenarios with WAA driven convection will
continue into early next week before a more-synopically driven MCS
progresses across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The midlevel
trough responsible for this MCS will move east of the area by
midweek with increasing midlevel heights thereafter. This should
support a drier and warmer pattern for the latter half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

-SHRA has moved east of CNU and should remain east for the
 remainder of the period. Isolated -TSRA remains west of GBD,
 HUT, and ICT and will remain west of the terminals this
 morning. Lingering IFR to MVFR CIGS and VSBY will scatter by
 mid-morning with predominately VFR conditions and light winds
 thereafter. Additional storm chances are possible tonight into
 Saturday morning, especially across central and south-central
 KS but confidence is too low for inclusion at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF