Spencer, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

005
FXUS63 KFSD 021140
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
640 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow should blossom across the area early this
  morning and become fairly widespread into the early afternoon.
  While snow amounts are expected to be on the lower side,
  close attention will need to be paid to areas west of I-29
  towards the James Valley as a quicker turn over to snow early
  this morning could result in a quick 2-4" of snow.

- A winter weather advisory will be in place for north of I-90
  today for the snow and ice potential.

- Mainly rain chances, but possibly some snow, will move into
  the area Thursday night into Friday night. Better chances
  should be south of I-90. Impacts should remain low.

- Dry weather Sunday through mid week with a nice warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low pressure will deepen across eastern NE/western KS through the
morning and lift north into central/western WI by this evening. A
fairly strong intrusion of pv aloft will spread north between about
9z and 15z this morning and should bring a final solid shot of
forcing into the area, mainly between I-29 and the James RIver. As
has been the case with this system, the low level thermal profile
will play a big role with this forcing. For now mainly a rain snow
mix is expected with this forcing this morning, but if it can become
mainly snow some rates close to an inch an hour will be possible and
if it can occur for a few hours a quick 2-4 inches of snow will be
possible. One other concern will be the potential for some icing as
well as quite a few models indicate a warm layer aloft of 1-2
degrees, with this focus mainly north of the area, but possibly
sneaking down into Brookings and nearby counties. Thinking less than
a tenth of an inch of ice if that pans out. But overall the thermal
profile in the lowest few thousand feet is very marginal and could
support just about any precipitation type, including sleet, with
changes of 2 degrees warmer or colder. The latest GFS/Nam and ECMWF
as well as Canadian are fairly aggressive in bringing in some
advisory level snow amounts, even when looking at the positive snow
depth change which takes into account some of the melting/compaction
potential. Will issue an advisory for areas north of I-90.

By tonight some lingering rain and snow will be possible mostly
north of I-90 as the lift and moisture diminish and lift northeast
out of the area. The breezy northwest winds will also gradually
diminish through the night. With cloud cover remaining through much
of the night and winds remaining above about 10 mph most locations
temperatures will fall into mainly the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will see a ridge of high pressure build in to the area at
the surface, so lighter winds and seasonally cool temperatures from
about 45 to 55 in most locations.

The next wave of interest will move north into the area Thursday
night into Friday and bring a threat for some rain that may mix with
snow. For now looking like more of a light rain than light snow
event. The potential for precipitation continues into Friday night
with only small chances into Saturday morning. Right now impacts
appear to be minor with this event.

Currently Sunday into Wednesday looks dry as northwest flow aloft
transitions to more westerly which should bring back more mild,
Springlike temperatures. Highs Sunday and Monday should be mainly
40s and 50s while Tuesday and Wednesday will try to get back into
the 60s, possibly some 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Widespread IFR conditions are expected through much of the
period for locations north of I-90. Near I-90 these IFR
conditions will persist through about 22z to 2z. South of I-90
conditions will improve to MVFR by early to mid afternoon.
Periods of rain and drizzle are expected through mid to late
evening. North of I-90 and especially closer to highway 14, snow
and possibly freezing rain will be a problem off and on
throughout the day, diminishing in intensity after about 0z this
evening. Otherwise northwest winds will increase through the day
with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Parts of northwest IA could see
gusts closer to 45 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ038>040-054>056.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-
     072-080-097.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08