Oskaloosa, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

099
FXUS63 KDMX 022344
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
544 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow chances (up to 20%) across Iowa tonight into
  Tuesday morning. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow
  accumulation possible.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming
  into the 40s by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Cloud cover has been persistent across much of the central to
southwest portions of Iowa today, due to low stratus associated with
an incoming shortwave and high cloud streaming in from a surface low
to the southwest. The embedded shortwave has our attention as it
rotates south across the area this evening through Tuesday morning.
This currently sits across South Dakota into Minnesota where radar
notes light precipitation occurring. As the wave sinks south into
Iowa it loses strength with very modest lift and will battle dry
air. Model cross sections and soundings indicate a shallow layer of
saturation through the dendritic growth zone with a substantial
wedge of dry air below. This will limit accumulations and have kept
this to around a tenth or so across the area. With dry air in place
there are periods where the DGZ de-saturates, resulting in a
loss of ice introduction. There are scenarios where this would
result in light freezing drizzle, however with dry air in place
through the rest of the column the more likely scenario is that
precipitation would end completely rather than transition from
snow to freezing drizzle. This wave will progress to southern
Iowa by Tuesday morning, sinking south of the area by mid
morning.

High pressure keeps the area dry and cooler on Tuesday with
highs in the 20s across the area. Another weak embedded
shortwave rotates across the area on Wednesday, though at this
time precipitation looks to remain east of the area. The western
US thermal ridge then begins to shift into the central US for
the middle of the week, kicking off a warming trend with 850 mb
temperatures in the +5 to +7 C range. Temperatures this week
peak Thursday with 40s across much of the state as southwest
Iowa makes a run at 50 degrees. A cold front pushes across Iowa
Friday, sending highs back to the 30s. Temperatures begin a slow
rebound back through the 30s to 40s this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A strip of MVFR stratus around 1500 to 2000 ft still remains
draped from northwest to southeast Iowa, mostly impacting KDSM
and KOTM. Recent observations suggest this band is eroding, but
have kept MVFR impacts at both sites for at least a few hours
and will continue to monitor trends.

Snow/flurries have developed over northern Iowa early this
evening, although recent observations have been sporadic. Some
locations north of Iowa/Minnesota border are reporting a
heavier snow with visibilities around and under a mile, while
areas farther south and west into Iowa are experiencing more dry
air and reporting only light snow/flurries with visibilities
over 6 miles. Given this have introduced PROB30 groups at KMCW
and KFOD to account for this snow potential, with most concern
at KMCW in proximity to the better snow rates. Will be
monitoring trends closely over the next few hours and amend TAFs
should confidence increase for more significant impacts at
either site.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Dodson