Muscatine, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS63 KDVN 101850
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather continues through Wednesday morning.

- Marginal severe risk threat level (1 out of 5) for tomorrow late
afternoon and evening hours.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the week with
  precipitation chances of 20-60%

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

After a cool morning in the upper 40s to low 50s, the smoke filtered
sunshine this morning already  boosted temperatures to the lower to
mid 70s as of Noon, and highs remain on track to reach the upper 70s
to around 80. The smoke, easily visible on satellite today, is
moving off towards the Ohio Valley, and out of our CWA, with a
much more blue sky expected by late today and this evening.

Warm advection will continue tonight, though winds will not be
overly strong in this pattern.  Southwest winds of 7-12mph will
continue after sunset, with gradually increasing low level moisture,
resulting in lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and a notable
increase in moist feel to the air for Wednesday morning.

Wednesday remains on track for seeing very warm temperatures in the
upper 80s, to low 90s.  The front, and approaching cloud cover look
to remain north of the area until very late in the afternoon, which
should provide both a dry day, and ample sunshine for the warm
temperatures.

Severe storms remain possible Wednesday evening...

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a level 1 of 5, or slight
risk for severe storms Wednesday PM. This is mostly driven by strong
instability over the area and a front, as far south as highway 20
during the evening hours.

Looking at models, there are two modes of this event possible.

1. The cap erodes late in the afternoon, allowing for isolated
to scattered surface based storms along the front. If this
occurs, low level shear near the front could allow for a brief
severe mode, including hail, damaging downbursts, and an
isolated tornado (during the first hour of development). This
seem contingent in moisture not mixing out of the boundary
layer, which is in great question. For now, afternoon dew point
values over 60 are struggling to move north into Kansas, and
we`re talking about mid 60s dew points here tomorrow.

2.  The weak forcing, and robust cap holds, keeping convection
limited to north of the front, mainly over southern MN and WI. If
that happens, we`ll be dry, at least through mid evening, with any
activity holding off until a possible cold pool drops into the area
later in the evening, at which time, a more widespread thunderstorm
threat is expected in the north row of counties.

Our forecast keep pops 50-70% along highway 20 in the north, with a
rapid decrease to slights by Interstate 80, and dry south. Certainly
we`ll need to watch the binary nature of this event, typical for
summer warm frontal convection for either ramp up in coverage, or a
dry forecast all together.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Thursday - Friday:

The pattern remains active to round out the work week as a 500mb low
lingers over the Southern Plains and several shortwaves move across
the Northern Plains. Periodic rain chances will continue through the
forecast with PoPs largely 40-60%. The EFI across northern IA/MN has
steadily been increasing with each run for QPF. Values are currently
around 0.60 which is not too alarming with a shift of tails of zero.
Still worth monitoring, if this increasing trend continues,
Excessive rainfall may be the next biggest concern.

Beyond, the upper pattern remains diffuse, with little confidence in
boundary placement in an otherwise moist warm air mass. Low pops are
throughout the forecast into the weekend and early next week by the
NBM, and there seems little to put your finger on for timing and
placement of rain. However, the pattern should support at least
diurnally driven showers/storms this time of year given the highs
well into the 80s with dew points at least lower 60s, (a typical
warm season air mass).


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Quiet aviation weather will continue through Wednesday morning,
as west winds of 8-10kts gust to around 16kts this afternoon and
early evening, then decrease and back to southwest tonight and
Wednesday around 7kts. Clear to high overcast skies are forecast
with warming conditions. Some high level smoke is moving east of
the area in the next few hours, or through 20z today.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin/Britt
AVIATION...Ervin