Noblesville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS63 KIND 231757
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1257 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog tonight, potential for additional fog Wednesday night

- Well above normal temperatures into the weekend with rain
  Wednesday and Thursday nights

- Transition back to colder conditions late weekend/early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Rest of Today and Tonight.

As of early this afternoon, skies continue to slowly clear from the
west to east with soundings showing drier air gradually helping to
erode the near surface stratus deck. Even with the robust cloud
cover, temperatures have risen well into the 50s for much of central
Indiana with a few sites across the far southwest which have been
clear longer already in the low 60s. Expect to see another couple of
degrees of warmth before sunset. Skies will be partly cloudy tonight
with most of the clouds more of a thin cirrus which combined with a
more northerly wind direction will help to bring cooler overnight
lows to the area. Most areas will remain at or above freezing, but
some locations north of Indianapolis may see lows near 30. There may
be some patchy fog towards daybreak and early tomorrow morning in
the northeastern counties where winds are expected to drop to near
calm which may also produce some slick spots and temperatures are
expected to be at or below freezing. Confidence is too low to
mention freezing fog explicitly in the forecast, but will continue
to monitor this evening.

Wednesday.

Other than some patchy fog during the early morning hours, quiet
weather is expected for much of the day with southeasterly surface
flow returning by mid-morning. Clouds will fill back in during the
daytime hours ahead of precipitation expected Wednesday night but
with the relatively robust WAA, temperatures will be able to rise
back into the low to mid 50s across central Indiana. Precipitation
may begin in the far western counties towards 00Z, but expect the
majority of it to fall after 00Z with a bigger focus on that system
in the long term below.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Wednesday Night Through Through Friday.

Overall not much has changed in forecast thoughts for Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe with a weak trough within the broader
northwesterly flow aloft. Synoptically, broad but generally weak
isentropic lift is expected ahead of the low which will help to
bring scattered to numerous light showers to the area. Some of the
higher resolution models are picking up on some elevated instability
near the warm front across far northern Indiana into Ohio, but
expect any impacts from that to be north and northeast of the
forecast area. QPF associated with the system continues to look to
be up to around a tenth of an inch. In addition to the rain, there
may be some areas of fog through the night with low clouds and
drizzle during periods without light rain. Dense fog looks unlikely
at this time. Any precipitation will come to an end by Thursday
morning with weak northerly flow in the aftermath.

Confidence also continues to increase in the northerly flow for
Christmas day helping to push temperatures on the lower end of what
was forecast up until the last couple of days. Current thoughts are
now that the Indianapolis area will be below 60 with the low to mid
60s mainly limited to areas near and south of Bloomington. Another
weak system may bring additional precipitation Thursday night into
Friday but confidence is low in anything more than very light rain
for central Indiana. There has been a bit of a southern trend in the
low associated with the system, but would like to see more than one
model run to make any significant adjustments to the forecast at this
point. There is higher confidence in warmer temperatures for Friday
with highs in low to mid 60 degree temperatures during the day with
stronger southerly flow across the state. If the more southerly
track holds true, this could also bring cooler temperatures than
currently forecast for Friday.

Saturday Through Tuesday.

A much stronger upper level low pressure system will move through
during the weekend across the Great Lakes region but the only
impacts to central Indiana will be the cooler and breezy conditions
Saturday into Sunday. Surface winds will be more westerly than
northwesterly through Sunday which will help to limit the strength
of the CAA but expect to see daytime highs struggle to rise out of
the 30s Sunday with the potential for single digit to low teens
Monday morning. There may be a few wind gusts of 25-35 mph Sunday
afternoon when the pressure gradients are maximized and the boundary
layer deepens to around 3kft. Looking further into the week this
cooler stretch looks brief with broad ridging and much warmer
temperatures returning towards early January.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR/IFR cigs improving to VFR by the evening


Discussion:

IFR conditions will gradually continue to improve through the early
afternoon with clearing already beginning to arrive at LAF and HUF.
IFR to low MVFR cigs will persist through the late afternoon towards
IND and especially at BMG but otherwise VFR conditions are expected
afterwards. There is a low chance for MVFR vsbys late tonight with
patchy fog, but think the better chances will be to the east of the
terminals. Winds will generally remain westerly through the evening
at 10-15kts with a few gusts to 20kts before becoming more northerly
tonight at around 7-10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White