Shelley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

410
FXUS65 KPIH 130452
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1052 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon ending
  after sunset.

- Isolated showers and storms in the central mountains and
  Montana Divide region on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures through the duration of the
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Expect isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
in the southern mountains and near the Montana border with low
precipitation amounts expected. Main threat will be outflow wind
gusts to 40 mph and small hail. Strong southwest flow aloft
continues tomorrow but expect drier conditions and less
thunderstorm coverage again with again best chance near the
Montana border but current grids avoid any activity Friday. Lows
tonight in the 40s and 50s with highs Friday 70s mountains and
80s valleys. Lows Friday night again in the 40s and 50s. Expect
breezier conditions Friday with sustained winds in the 10 to 20
mph range especially northern parts of the Snake Plain and
towards the Montana border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

By Sat, the thunderstorm threat has moved out of everywhere but
the extreme northeast end, even north of Island Park. This
shifting eastward means the upper level ridge builds in for the
weekend, and conditions return to well above normal by Sun,
temperature-wise. Sun now is the warmest day of the week, with
afternoon highs 12 to 17 deg F above normal. The breakdown of
this upper level ridge starts to develop Mon, instead of Tue.
However, this breakdown is not great, even by afternoon, as all
clusters have positive height anomalies. It will be noted that
the most advanced breakdown is the cluster for just over 40
percent of the solutions. Even Tue and Wed are not definitive on
the breakdown of the upper level ridge with only 52 percent of
the solutions showing any neutral or negative 500mb height
anomalies. This leads to a forecast of perhaps some light
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly for mountains and
highlands, with little else going on except clouds to keep
temperatures near normal by Tue, which will be the coolest day
this week. A warming trend develops by Wed with dry near-zonal
flow. The only thing may be wind and the above normal
temperatures to contend with for Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Following scattered showers and thunderstorms today, dry
conditions and mostly clear skies will return overnight into
Friday morning as the final showers and storms depart northeast.
A weak shortwave trough passing overhead on Friday will support
an uptick in afternoon clouds, breezy winds with gusts peaking
around 15-25 kts, and isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
mountains further north and east. Have maintained a dry
forecast for the time being at all terminals outside of KDIJ
where a PROB30 -TSRA has been introduced Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
into the early evening with moisture moving into the area in
southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around 30 to 40 mph
are likely with any thunderstorms. Small hail is also likely
with thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be in the 70s
and 80s across the area. The area begins to dry out again by
Friday and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the
80s and 90s by the weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...TW