Meridian, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS65 KBOI 111533
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
933 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms continued
through the night in Harney County/OR ahead of a Pacific short
wave trough that moved onto the southern OR coast. Another area
of showers and thunderstorms formed in the Owyhee Mountains
around sunrise and moved into the Treasure Valley west of Boise
around 9 AM. Hi-res models didn`t see the second area but
continue to show numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
central Idaho Mountains and eastern part of the Boise Mountains
early this afternoon as the Oregon trough moves through. A
Flood Watch continues in effect there but the time frame was
adjusted to 1 PM to 5 PM MDT this afternoon (from 2 PM to 9 PM
originally), more consistent with latest hi-res models. Much
quieter weather expected tonight through Friday, except for a
slight chance of non-severe thunderstorms again in the Idaho
Mountains Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms today,
decreasing to isolated this afternoon across southeast Oregon
and this evening across southwest Idaho. Thunderstorms have the
potential for hail, brief downpours, and outflows of 35 kt.
VFR outside of precipitation, deteriorating to MVFR or IFR in
storms. Mtns obscured at times in heavy showers/thunderstorms.
Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt outside of thunder. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: SW- W 15-25 kt.

KBOI...Mainly VFR. Brief showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
conditions expected through 19Z, then a 20% chance through the
rest of the afternoon. Storms capable of 30 kt outflows, small
hail, and brief downpours. Surface winds: NW 8-12 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...A potent shortwave is
moving across southcentral OR this morning, with thunderstorms
producing a substantial amount of lightning for the overnight
hours near Lakeview OR, Summer Lake OR, and western Harney
County. These thunderstorms will track across eastern OR this
morning and into southwest Idaho by midday. The upper level
dynamics are favorable for severe weather today, but the timing
is working against it. The storms will strengthen with the
afternoon heating of the day but move into central and eastern
ID as they reach full potential. Main threats with the storms
will be heavy rain, and hail up to 1 inch in the stronger
storms. Precipitable water values reach the 95th percentile for
this time of the year today, so still concerned about the
possibility of debris flows from recent fire burn scars, such as
the Wapiti. Wind gust potential today will be less than Tuesday
because of a wetter atmosphere and cooler temperatures, but
blowing dust is still possible. Temperatures will be around 10
degrees cooler than yesterday and remain steady through the
short term. A cold front will stall out from Burns OR to McCall
ID on Thursday and Friday. There is enough instability on
Thursday afternoon for isolated showers and thunderstorms to
form over the Idaho mountains, but they will be substantially
weaker than the storms on Wednesday. Similar conditions on
Friday, but storms will be confined over the Blues in Oregon
and west central ID mountains.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Southwest flow
prevails through early next as a upper-level trough will sit
stagnant off of the west coast. Shortwaves may propagate
through the main flow. However, with precipitable water values
ranging from the 15th-30th percentile these shortwaves should
bring nothing more than periods of increased cloud cover. While
deterministic models have considerable variability on how the
trough progresses onshore, they do show it making its way
inland. The GFS and Euro grand ensembles also indicate troughing
making its way over our area early next week. Moisture still
looks to be limited when the trough moves over our area, so
this is only resulting in a 10-15% chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the central Idaho mountains, with the
higher chances in northeast Valley county Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. As of now, Wednesday is looking to be dry with near
zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will have very limited daily
variations through Wednesday, hovering 5-10 degrees above
normal. Although with the uncertainty regarding the trough
progression early next week, there is also uncertainty in the
temperatures early next week.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch until 5 PM MDT this afternoon IDZ011-013.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening
     ORZ672-673.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF