Idaho Falls, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS65 KPIH 122100
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
200 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night.
Following a cold front earlier today that brought widespread rain
and snow with precipitation amounts around a T-0.40" and wind
gusts up to 40-60 mph, lingering snow showers have shifted to
being along the Wyoming border as strong winds aloft and or at
the surface bring in a colder and drier airmass in from the west.
Winds are currently strongest around the Magic and Raft River
Valley region but given the trend down in winds through this
evening, have opted to not go with any Wind Advisory issuance even
though we have been locally meeting criteria especially along
portions of I-84. Dry conditions will return regionwide tonight as
winds remain elevated, making any fog formation unlikely outside
of along waterways with better potential for low stratus as skies
trend mostly clear overnight. Highs today will be noticeably
colder versus yesterday in the mid 30s to mid 40s with overnight
lows tonight in the teens and 20s.

Dry conditions will continue heading into early Wednesday as a
brief ridge of high pressure builds back in overhead while another
H5 low continues to move onshore to British Columbia and PacNW.
While this broad H5 trough bring an atmospheric river (AR) onshore
to Washington, Oregon, and NRN California, an embedded H5
shortwave trough within this larger system will bring remnants of
this AR into the WRN CNTRL Mountains starting late Wednesday
morning as isolated to scattered rain and snow showers return to
CNTRL/ERN Idaho. Given W/SW moisture transport with this trough,
best chances for accumulating snow will remain confined to the
Wood River Valley, Sawtooth Valley, and Island Park regions. Snow
totals in these areas through Wednesday morning through Wednesday
night will range from a T-2" in the valleys and 2-6" in the
mountains, locally higher in that 6-10" range along the spine of
the Sawtooths. Up at Galena Summit, look for about 2-4" of snow
with this system. QPF/liquid equivalent for these areas will be in
that 0.05-0.20" range in the valleys and 0.20-0.40" range in the
mountains, again locally higher across the highest elevations of
the Sawtooths around 0.40-0.70" Everywhere else, showers will
remain very isolated with any accumulations rain or snow remaining
light with QPF/liquid equivalent up to a T-0.05".

Given the influence of SW flow back on Wednesday with a ridge
axis of high pressure shifting east, temperatures will be slightly
warmer for most with highs on Wednesday back in the mid 30s to
low 50s with overnight lows Wednesday night in the 20s/30s. Winds
will continue to remain elevated on Wednesday but not to the level
we saw on Tuesday, peaking around 10-25 mph with gusts to 20-40
mph. MacKay

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
Will have very light snow Thursday in the central mountains as
fast moving upper trof exits with mostly dry conditions elsewhere.
It will be mild with high temperatures in the mountains in the
30s to lower 40s with valleys in the 40s to lower 50s. Will begin
to see precipitation from the next Pacific system spread into the
central mountains Friday morning and overspread the remainder of
eastern Idaho Friday afternoon and evening. Snow levels will start
at 5 to 6 thousand feet and drop to valley floors Friday night.
Expect widespread mainly light accumulations with general outlooks
for now of 2 to 6 inches above 6 thousand feet and a half inch to
2 inches below that level. Low confidence in snow amounts at this
point with that system. Highs by Saturday will drop to the 20s to
lower 30s mountains and 30s valleys as significantly cooler
temperatures move in behind the cold front with that system.
Another in a series of Pacific systems may return snow into
southeast Idaho Sunday into Monday and grids keep fairly
widespread high precipitation chances Sunday and Monday with cold
temperatures remaining with highs continuing in the 20s and 30s
through Tuesday. GK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday.
Snow lingering at DIJ as cold front continues to push east and
snow has ended at PIH and IDA. Expect all snow to have ended by
00Z and only impact overnight will be any possible MVFR or IFR due
to stratus. Stratus has lingered with IFR conditions at IDA this
afternoon but expect improvement early tonight and possible MVFR
ceilings reforming overnight. For now have VFR conditions at DIJ
and PIH in the morning. Is a low chance could see more widespread
stratus including DIJ and PIH but for now not including in TAFs.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$