American Falls, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS65 KPIH 030435
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1035 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold conditions continue through Friday with convective snow
  showers mainly in the mountains with a slight chance of mixed
  rain and snow showers in the valleys.

- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Satellite imagery shows broad upper low across Idaho/Utah today.
Wrap around moisture working around the northern portions of the
low in cold pool continuing to fire showers across East Idaho.
Temperatures should warm enough this afternoon to support mix of
rain/snow at lower elevations, otherwise expect primarily mix of
snow/graupel, with light 1-2" accumulations in heavier showers
at higher elevations, though a few ranges across the central
mountains show some accumulations could reach as high as 3-4" if
the showers keep redeveloping over the same areas. Showers
taper overnight, but return again on Thursday, albeit with
slightly less coverage and with slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Long wave trof pushes east of the area Friday afternoon with a cut
off low over the desert southwest moving out as well. This will open
the door to the west for an encroaching upper ridge of high
pressure. Considerable agreement across the guidance space including
the multiple suites of ensembles through at least Saturday. Guidance
agreement begins to devolve slightly heading into early next week as
a shortwave trough erodes the high amplified ridge axis overhead.
This shortwave will bring low precipitation chances back to the
area, if even briefly but precipitation amounts shouldn`t be
significant.

Temperatures that will be warming through the weekend, will plateau
just above normals Monday/Tuesday with the ridge breaking down
temporarily. After Tuesday, however temperatures are expected to
climb through the balance of the week. The upper-level ridge will re-
establish, building in from the south and amplifying our warming
potential. The warmest temperatures of next week look to be just
beyond the current long term period, where the NBM Records monitor
is showing some very early potential at challenging the daily high
record for Pocatello and perhaps a few record high min temperatures.
This will be something we`ll be monitoring going into next week,
especially with the amount of mid and high elevation snowpack still
to melt off this spring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Overnight radiative cooling with continued isolated shower
activity will lead to a risk of stratus and marginal VFR CIGs
developing late tonight, with the likeliest places KPIH and
KBYI. It occurred at KBYI on Wed morning and could spread
farther eastward tonight. Yet another round of SHRA/SHSN and,
according to SPC, TSRA, should occur. The showers will slide
through from northwest to southeast, so KSUN will start it off
with showers in the area by 03/12Z. Daytime heating will help
trigger a greater coverage of activity by 03/20Z at the other
airdromes. KSUN has probabilities in the afternoon reaching a
level where they are a predominate weather element, and with the
temperature and dewpoint depression allowing for -SHRASN.
Everywhere else, only VCSH is mentioned. Expect KSUN to stay VFR
during the event, at least at this time. The triggering is not
caused by much in the way of an active front, with a lot of wind
expected to be variable and light. Only the Snake River
plain/eastern Magic Valley airports should reach the 10KT to
15KT range, mostly during the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick