Lahaina, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

235
FXHW60 PHFO 101941
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
941 AM HST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds are expected to persist
through the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka
locations as areas of moisture move through. The trade winds may
become strong from Wednesday through the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement, showing breezy easterly
trades continuing as deep layer ridging remains positioned to the
north. A low cloud band from a remnant front has moved into Kauai
and Oahu this morning, and will drift it`s way southward to Maui
later today while the trades usher the individual cloud elements
east to west. Radar shows widely scattered showers within the
cloud band with most showers hitting the windward slopes of Kauai
and Oahu. The early morning upper air soundings show a subsidence
inversion positioned around 6,400 feet on Kauai, so expect showers
to be light and fast moving with little accumulations.

Guidance shows this showery cloud band lingering in the area into
Monday before diminishing. Drier air is expected to move in later
Monday through Tuesday, which should help reduce shower coverage.

The trade winds may become strong and gusty from Wednesday
through the second half of the week, as strong high pressure
builds to the north in the wake of a cold front. The tail end of
this front could settle southward toward the islands Friday into
next weekend. The increase in moisture, combined with lowering
upper heights, could enhance shower activity over windward areas
next weekend if this scenario materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy, easterly trades will continue for the next several days.
Low clouds and showers will be mainly focused along windward areas,
though a stray shower may be pushed over into leeward areas at
times. A lingering area of moisture near the northern end of the
state will continue to provide windward Kauai and Oahu with the
bulk of the rainfall today. Brief MVFR conds are possible in
showers, but VFR should prevail.

AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence remains in effect
over and downwind of all island terrain.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will
maintain fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds through
Tuesday. The high will then drift eastward over the next two
days and another stronger high pressure system will build in north
of the islands. Trade wind speeds will strengthen to near gale
levels by Wednesday and could continue through Friday.

The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island and could be expanded
to include all Hawaiian Coastal Waters from Wednesday onward.

The current medium period NNW (330 degree) swell will gradually
decline through Monday. The forerunners of the next moderate NW
(320 degree) swell will build into Hawaiian waters by early Monday
morning and peak near advisory levels by Monday evening. This
swell will be followed by a slightly larger NW (320 degree) swell
filling in from late Tuesday into Wednesday, which should produce
advisory level surf along N and W facing shores.

Surf along E facing shores will remain rough and choppy through
the middle of the week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range
models are showing a significant increase of wind waves towards
the latter half of this week due to a large fetch of strong trade
winds setting up over and upstream of the state. Surf heights
should exceed advisory thresholds along E facing shores during its
peak.

Surf along S facing shores will remain small and near the
seasonal average through the middle of this week. Mainly
background S swell pulses linger in the long range forecast.

Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards end of this
week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal inundation
impacts during the early morning high tide periods for vulnerable
coastal areas on all islands. The large wind waves combined with
the peak monthly tides could cause greater impacts along eastern
shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Tsamous