Kapaa, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXHW60 PHFO 142031
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1031 AM HST Sat Jun 14 2025

.UPDATE...
Quick update to the forecast for today to incorporate latest
satellite trends. Conditions remain quite stable with a strong
inversion noted around 7kft over Lihue. A batch of moisture
trapped beneath the inversion is bringing widespread showers to
windwindward Kauai and Oahu late this morning. The strong
inversion will limit potential for moisture to mix out and thus
weakening/drying of this area of showers will be dependent on the
diurnal trend which will eventually take its toll by this
afternoon when conditions will improve. Also nudged PoPs upward
over portions of windward Big Island where shallower moisture is
streaming onshore.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will persist through the next several days and will
be breezy and gusty Saturday through Tuesday. Showers will be
focused along typical windward and mauka areas, as well as the
Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 414 AM HST Sat Jun 14 2025/

Typical summertime trade wind weather is expected to persist
through next week, with only subtle variations expected through
the forecast period.

This morning`s radar and satellite imagery show a slight uptick
and clouds and showers riding in on the trades, most of which are
being confined to windward and mauka areas under a strong
inversion, as seen in the 2 AM HST upper air soundings. A weak
upper level trough/low will remain near the western end of the
state through weekend, but isn`t expected to have much of an
impact on local weather, except for potentially increasing the
chance of rain over Kauai. Surface high pressure to our north is
currently being split by a front passing through the northeast
Pacific. Even so, model guidance indicates that this split high
will gradually strengthen, causing the the local pressure gradient
to tighten and bring breezy and gusty easterly trades to the
island chain this weekend.

These breezy to gusty trades will persist into early next week,
or perhaps slightly strengthen, as the split high to the north
consolidates into one to our far northeast and builds. At the same
time, mid to upper level ridging will build overhead and remain
there through the rest of the forecast period, maintaining a
stable trade wind pattern. As such, clouds and showers are
expected to continue to favor the typical windward and mauka
areas, particularly during the overnight to early morning time
periods.

AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trade winds will gradually strengthen this
weekend and continue to focus incoming low clouds and showers
over windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility
will be possible in any showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscurations is in effect through
the early morning hours for windward portions of the smaller
islands.

AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence leeward of
mountains across all islands. This will likely continue through
the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

MARINE...
High pressure north of the region will strengthen and dominate
through the forecast period. As a result, trade winds will
strengthen a notch through the rest of this weekend and remain
through next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier
waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains
in effect through Monday, but will likely need to be extended and
possibly expanded in coverage as the trades strengthen.

Surf along south facing shores will be small through today. A
series of small, long period, south swells originating from
fetches near New Zealand will help boost surf heights near the
summer average (5 feet) throughout next week. The first boost
should fill in Sunday into Monday, followed by another bump
Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores are expected to
slightly increase this weekend into early next week due to trade
winds strengthening. Surf will remain at seasonable levels (nearly
flat) along north facing shores throughout the forecast period.
Some select exposures could see some tradewind swell wrap.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


UPDATE...JVC
DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Tsamous