Kaneohe Base, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

043
FXHW60 PHFO 030200
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will move over Kauai tonight into Thursday and
stall and dissipate around Oahu Thursday into Friday. This will
bring an increase of wet weather over the western half of the
state especially over Kauai. Breezy to locally strong trade winds
should return on Friday. A showery trade wind pattern will
continue to persist over Kauai through the weekend due to the
lingering moisture, while typical trade wind showers are expected
elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A frontal boundary currently located west of Kauai will gradually
weaken as it slowly shifts eastward through Thursday. Satellite
imagery this afternoon is showing a broad NE to SW oriented line
of showers and thunderstorms roughly 100 to 150 miles west of
Kauai. This line of heavier showers is expected to weaken some as
it moves over Kauai tonight into Thursday.

From late tonight into Thursday, the frontal boundary should
reach Kauai and will bring the threat for heavier showers. The
greatest rainfall is expected to be over the northern half of
Kauai and showery weather is expected to persist from Thursday
through Friday with frequent showers. With precipitable water
values of around 1.8 inches and some marginal instability aloft
from the upper level trough, some minor flooding impacts will be
possible across Kauai. For Oahu, showers will not be as widespread
as Kauai, but some brief downpours should be expected on Thursday
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. For rest of the
state, sea breezes will allow for afternoon cloud build ups once
again with some scattered showers over interior and mountain areas
during the afternoon. Any showers in the afternoon should
dissipate in the evening as land breezes develop.

The frontal boundary is expected to weaken and stall somewhere
around Oahu on Friday. Breezy to locally strong trade winds will
also return on Friday with our typical trade wind pattern
returning across most of the state. The one exception is over
Kauai, where lingering moisture will continue to produce showery
weather through the weekend. Typical breezy trade wind weather is
expected early next week with passing showers over windward and
mauka areas and a few leeward showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will become light and variable over much of the state as a
cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Expect an uptick
in shower activity across Kauai and Oahu later tonight through
Thursday as moisture streams in from the south ahead of the front.
Periods of MVFR are likely within the heavier showers. The eastern
half of the state will see moderate to locally breezy southeasterly
winds continue, with localized sea breezes in sheltered areas.
Conditions should remain mostly VFR.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

All areas will continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing eruption
of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact visibilities
enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.


&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving cold front over the far northwest waters will move
over Kauai tonight, stall just west of Oahu on Thursday, then
gradually dissipate. Light to moderate southeast winds ahead of
the front will weaken and become more southerly by morning. Behind
the front, winds will shift to the north northwest. Moderate to
locally strong trade winds will reestablish themselves across the
Islands Friday night or Saturday and persist into the coming week.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for locally
accelerated east and southeast winds in waters around the Big
Island, but conditions are expected to end by early evening.

A small west northwest (290-310) swell will gradually fade even as
a small north swell (350 degree) gradually builds in. Together,
they will maintain small surf along north and west facing shores
through Thursday. On Friday, the north (350) swell will continue
to build, possibly producing advisory level surf. Then on Saturday,
a second large to extra large, long period, north to north north
west (330-350) swell is forecast to arrive and produce warning
level surf along north facing shores with advisory level surf
across west and east facing shores through the weekend. This
swell, aside from being hazardous to small craft, could generate
harbor surges along north facing bays and inlets.

Surf along south facing shores will remain low through this
weekend with mainly background energy dominating.

Surf along east facing shores will remain low through Thursday,
but bump up slightly over the weekend with the return of trade
wind flow over and upstream of the Islands.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Bedal