Kahului, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

345
FXHW60 PHFO 240124
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
324 PM HST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds driven by high pressure to the north will
weaken to moderate levels by Wednesday becoming land and sea
breezes this weekend. Lingering windward clouds and showers
tonight trending drier Wednesday. A possible front near the west
end of the state early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite shows clouds and showers associated with an old
frontal band anchored along windward Maui and Big Island this
afternoon, and to Molokai, Oahu and Kauai to a lesser degree.
Expecting this low cloud cover to linger tonight with conditions
becoming sunnier through the day Wednesday. Occasional high clouds
will continue to track over the islands from a system west of the
state that is not expected to impact the islands at least within
the next 5 days. Breezy trade winds driven by high pressure to
the north will weaken by Wednesday as the ridge builds in. While
the short term trend will be drier and more stable, any clouds
and showers running in the trade winds will focus windward and
mauka through Friday.

The system will organize to a cold front and begin approaching the
state late in the week. Winds will veer southeasterly across the
state this weekend as it nears Kauai. Localized sea breezes will
bring leeward clouds and showers during the afternoons and
clearing at night. Long range model solutions slow and stall the
front near or over Kauai around Monday or Tuesday. Model
differences emerge at this point, and less forecast confidence
persists on impacts and timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds today will become a bit lighter tomorrow.
Enhanced clouds and showers associated with an old front can be
seen on satellite imagery today moving swiftly across windward
and mountain areas. Showers could linger through some of tonight
as well, as there still remains a little moisture upstream of the
trade wind flow. Showers and clouds should then substantially
decrease tomorrow as drier air moves in, bringing VFR conditions
to most locations.

AIRMET Sierra is in place for tempo mountain obscurations over all
the islands except Oahu. This AIRMET should drop off later tonight
as drier air moves in.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence
downwind of terrain on all islands below 8000 feet will likely
continue through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to near gale easterly trade winds peaked today and will
slowly decline tonight through Thursday. A robust 1037 mb surface
high centered about 1500 nm north of Hawaii is driving the gusty
trades, while a large area of low pressure centered roughly 1500
nm northwest of Kauai is causing the winds to be out of the east
locally. The high will drift eastward and weaken tonight through
Thursday, leading to a gradual decline in winds. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) remains in place for a combination of winds and
elevated seas for nearly all coastal waters and is scaled back to
the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The SCA may need to be extended for
another day or two as trades slowly ease. The low will move to
the east Friday into the weekend, pushing a surface ridge near the
islands and causing winds to further decline and eventually shift
out of the southeast and south.

The current small north swell will continue to gradually decline
into Wednesday. A moderate, medium period north-northeast
(010-030 degrees) swell will arrive Wednesday and peak Christmas
Day into Friday. Surf along north facing shores could approach
the High Surf Advisory level during the peak, with the largest
swells favoring the eastern end of the island chain, and a Marine
Weather Statement will likely be needed for harbor surges at
Kahului and Hilo. During this time, a small pulse of west swell
is expected as well. The north swell will decline over the weekend
as a small northwest swell arrives. A large north-northwest swell
may arrive early next week.

Gusty trade winds will maintain elevated and rough east shore
surf near the High Surf Advisory level through tonight, especially
on Kauai and Oahu, where seas of 8 to 10 feet at 9 seconds have
been measured on the nearshore PacIOOS buoy. Short period trade
wind swell, which also contributed to the need for the SCA
through tonight, will decline sharply Wednesday, but wrapping
northerly swell will affect exposed eastern shores late Wednesday
through Friday. Surf along south facing shores will remain very
small through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong trades tonight will ease Wednesday through the end of the
week. RH remains elevated through the period.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Foster
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Wroe