Ahuimanu, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXHW60 PHFO 021334
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Rain chances will steadily increase through the week especially
over the western half of the state as a frontal boundary moves
over Kauai and stalls near Oahu Thursday into Friday. Breezy to
locally strong trade winds should return on Friday with a showery
trade wind pattern expected through the weekend. Once again, the
trade wind showers should be most frequent over the western half
of the state.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak high pressure system northwest of the state is generating light
to moderate south to southeasterly winds. Wind speeds are expected
to ease today as the high weakens and shifts eastward and a front
approaches from the west. Expect seabreezes to develop during the
day allowing clouds and showers to build up over leeward and
interior areas. Land breezes will develop shortly after sunset
clearing low clouds and showers, especially over the eastern half
of the state. Vog will be more widespread today. Isolated
thunderstorms have been added to the coastal waters northwest of
Kauai today as a broad active rainband associated with the front
inches closer, although confidence is low. High resolution model
guidance shows an area of convergence ahead of the front that
could create some scattered showers over the central islands later
this afternoon. In addition, could see an uptick in showers along
coastlines exposed to southeast flow around Big Island and Maui
County as an area of low level clouds with embedded showers moves
through. Meanwhile the leading edge of the broad rainband will
approach Kauai today becoming disorganized that could generate
widely scattered heavier showers. The tail end of the rainband
looks to be more organized as it moves over Kauai Thursday. There
could be some localized nuisance flooding or ponding concerns
later today into Thursday as winds ease, allowing for any
moderate to locally heavy showers to persist longer over one area,
especially for north Kauai.

The frontal boundary is expected to weaken and stall somewhere
around Kauai or Oahu on Friday allowing breezy to locally strong
trade winds to return. Lingering moisture and upper level instability
will help generate a showery trade wind pattern across the state
over the weekend and into early next week. The greatest moisture
will once again continue to be across the western half of the
state, especially Kauai. Vog should be swept southwest of the
state as trades returns.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate southerly winds will continue over the western half of
the state as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Expect an
uptick in shower activity across Kauai and Oahu as moisture
streams in from the south ahead of the front, with periods of MVFR
likely with the heavier showers.

The eastern half of the state will see moderate to locally breezy
southeasterly winds continue, with localized sea breezes in
sheltered areas. Conditions should remain mostly VFR.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

All areas will continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing
eruption of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact
visibilities enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.


&&

.MARINE...
A cold front, slowly approaching the islands from the west, will
maintain breezy southeasterly flow across the eastern portion of
the state and light to moderate southerly flow elsewhere. Instability
aloft, ahead of the front, will lead to isolated thunderstorms
west of Kauai by this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has
been extended through this afternoon for waters around the Big
Island for local wind acceleration around and along the parallel
coastlines to the wind direction. The front should move across
Kauai and near Oahu Friday before dissipating. Expect moderate to
locally strong northeast trades to develop this weekend and
persist into early next week.

A small west- northwest swell will maintain small surf along
north and west facing shores today and Thursday. A moderate north-
northwest (330-350) swell is expected to arrive on Friday and
could produce advisory level surf. A large to extra large, long
period, north to north- north west (340-360) swell is forecast to
build this weekend and could likely produce warning level surf
along north facing shores with advisory level surf across west and
east facing shores. This swell, aside from being hazardous to
small craft, could generate harbor surges along north facing bays
and inlets.

Surf along south facing shores will remain low through this
weekend with mainly background energy dominating.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Thomas