Martinez, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS62 KCAE 141026
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
626 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues this weekend with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Ridging
builds into the region next week which will lead to warming
temperatures and a more typical summertime pattern of scattered
thunderstorms. Heat Index values may exceed 100 degrees in the
long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to widespread shower/storm chances continue to
  start the weekend.

- Heat indices up to around 100F are expected this afternoon.

Some scattered convection is on going early this morning mainly
in the eastern Midlands with some elevated instability
remaining and PWAT`s around 2.1-2.2" across the whole FA. This
activity likely continues through sunrise before a brief break
maybe seen through the mid to late morning, allowing instability
to build again with deep moisture remaining in place as
southerly to southwesterly moisture transport continues. The
synoptic picture does not change much through the day with the
region remaining in between the subtropical high offshore and
upper trough that is now entering the Mississippi Valley. This
trough will near closer through the afternoon and evening,
possibly sending some shortwave energy toward the region. The
maintenance of southwesterly to southerly flow will bring
temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s and with the
very humid airmass in place, heat indices peaking near 100-102F
are expected during peak heating in the afternoon.

Scattered to widespread summertime diurnal convection once
again is expected during the afternoon and evening in a modestly
to strongly unstable environment, where an isolated strong to
marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out with the primary
hazards of damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. As was realized near the Columbia Metro and toward
Sumter County last evening, where the interaction of mesoscale
boundaries occur, training slow moving thunderstorms could bring
localized flash flood situations with multiple inches of rain
falling in a couple hours. Where these potential interactions
occur will be the main item of interest as we keep deep moisture
and very efficient rainfall rates in these storms this
afternoon and evening. Similar to the past couple of nights,
some of this activity may carry into the overnight period with
the moist airmass in place and lows that only fall into the low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated damaging winds possible in the afternoon

High pressure slides to our south on Sunday promoting a more
westerly flow pattern with slightly lower PWAT values than the
previous few days. Lee side troughing in the wake of the
Appalachians and a sea-breeze will trigger convection in the
afternoon as the air mass destabilizes. Although instability
will be weak to moderate, steep low level lapse rates may allow
for a downburst wind threat. A shortwave may also pass to our
north on Sunday afternoon supporting convective development
although the stronger PVA may be in NC. CAMs show limited
coverage however they have consistently been underdone the past
few days. With PWAT values ranging from 1.75 to 2 inches the
heavy rain threat is a little lower than the previous few days.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lower dewpoints
should keep max Heat Index values in the 97 to 102 degree F
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Seasonable weather with daily thunderstorm chances
- Heat index values approaching or exceeding 100F next week

Next week, the ridge off of the Southeast Coast will build west
leading to height rises over the forecast area mid-week. The
NAEFS shows that heights over the FA are not exceptionally
anomalous but will still favor temps a few degrees above
normal. Afternoon highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s each
afternoon of the long term. Overnight lows will also be a few
degrees above normal with values in the low to mid 70s.

PWAT values will return to near normal values by mid-week.
Ridging over the region and near normal atmospheric moisture
will support traditional summertime conditions with isolated to
scattered convection each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions being seen at all sites
this morning and should continue before 14-15z. More
restrictions are possible this afternoon and evening with
convection.

A stray shower is moving away from CAE/CUB this morning as
some stratus is seen developing with periods of SCT to BKN
ceilings at all sites. Most of the TAF sites have solidly been
in MVFR conditions but periods of IFR have been seen and are
expected to continue before 14-15z. Ceilings then gradually rise to
VFR with SCT cumulus and high clouds expected. Winds today
look to be out of the southwest to south at 8-11 kts with some
isolated gusts toward 15-18 kts possible this afternoon. More scattered
to widespread afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected
after 16-18z where intermittent restrictions will be possible
at each terminal. Some of this activity may linger toward into
the early overnight period but at this time, there is low
confidence in any possible restrictions overnight due to
showers/storms. Despite lingering moisture, model guidance has
not been overly impressed with any stratus development tonight
and thus I have opted to leave mention of this out at this time,
though some brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities are not out of the
question.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions are possible each
afternoon/evening into early next week with typical summertime
convection. Patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$