Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXUS62 KTBW 020647
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
247 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and
Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in
the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland
Levy county.

High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep
trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong
downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall
L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days
as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This
will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and
western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west
coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to
the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida
will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the
slow progression will continue with the trough making its way
toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding
through the flow.

At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold
across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and
much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty
southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface
and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for
the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and
very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many
areas away from the coast each afternoon.

Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge
will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach
from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across
west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a
band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms
possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area.
Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms
over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating
combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the
region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the
storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest
Florida.

High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake
of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the
region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic
normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals
central and south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Although VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours under
mostly clear skies, can`t rule out very localized brief MVFR
VSBYs due to fog around sunrise which could possibly impact LAL
or PGD. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds will develop at all
terminals late this morning which will persist through the
afternoon...subsiding around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Areas of dense fog will be possible over the northern waters
mainly along the Levy/Citrus counties coastlines through mid
morning. The fog is expected to lift as winds increase from the
southeast today, but the winds are expected to remain below
cautionary levels. Can`t rule out an evening easterly surge around
sunset which could create brief winds to cautionary levels,
mainly on the near shore waters which could last for several
hours before weakening after midnight. High pressure will hold
over the waters into the weekend with continued southeast winds
each day...again remaining below cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days.
The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity
values to drop into the 40s for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  92  72 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  92  72  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  92  71  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  90  72  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  92  66  92  66 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  87  73  87  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn