Plantation, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS62 KMFL 160717
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
317 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

    - High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches through
      tonight.

    - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
      afternoon, mainly over the interior South Florida and
      southwest Florida.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery along with the 00z MFL
sounding shows a very dry layer of air in the 700 to 500 mb region
of the atmosphere. However, this mid-level dry air is expected to
erode a little bit on Saturday as southeasterly flow looks to
introduce some greater tropical moisture into the region. Model
soundings indicate that PWATs should climb into the the 1.5 to 1.7
inch range, which will in turn increase MidRH values to greater
than 75%. Aloft, ridging will begin to build over the western
Atlantic, and surface high pressure will strengthen off the coast
of the Carolinas. As result, mid level subsidence is expected once
again on Saturday afternoon, which may suppress stronger and more
widespread convection. However, the increased moisture should
lead to greater coverage than the last couple of days, with a few
stronger storms along mesoscale convergence zones. With weak 500
mb flow, there will be very little forcing synoptically for
storms, so most precipitation will be sea-breeze induced. A
strengthening pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will
begin to increase easterly wind flow through the weekend. With a
more predominant easterly regime, storms will focus over interior
South Florida and along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida. HREF
ensemble CAMs indicate activity will first focus over the
Everglades and then shift north to northwestward over the course
of the afternoon. Main concerns will be frequent lightning from
stronger storms, sub-severe wind gusts, and locally heavy
downpours.

Easterly winds look to continue strengthening heading into Sunday
as the surface high along the eastern seaboard strengthens into
the 1022 to 1026 mb range. Wind speeds will get up to 10 to 15 mph
with gusts as strong as 25 mph. As ridging builds over western
Atlantic, another centroid of high pressure will develop over the
Bay of Campeche. Therefore, Florida will find itself in a corridor
of deeper moisture that will continue to advect north into
Florida from the Caribbean. PWATs look to climb to near 2 inches,
which is within the 90th percentile for this time of year. Surface
troughing over the Florida Straits may create a weak boundary or
even induce a weak disturbance over Cuba. As a result, increased
chances of precipitation for the morning hours along the
Gulfstream and the Florida Straits, with showers moving from east
to west over the region. During the afternoon, shower and storm
activity will likely focus along the interior and southwest
Florida, along the Gulf breeze where PoPs are in the 70% to 80%
range. With deeper moisture and slightly better forcing available,
a few more stronger thunderstorms may be more likely on Sunday
compared to Saturday.

It will continue to feel quite hot through the weekend, with heat
indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Probabilistic HeatRisk
guidance shows widespread Moderate risk with a lower 20% chance of
Major HeatRisk for the east coast metros. Sensitive individuals will
be most at risk without proper cooling or hydration.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Confidence is increasing for a mid-level non-tropical disturbance of
low pressure to develop over the western Atlantic near the Bahamas.
The center of the circulation will continue to slide west towards
Florida through Tuesday, then looking to meander around the Bahamas
through the middle of the week. The exact positioning of this
circulation is still uncertain, and it may be a determining factor
for how much moisture and precipitation it brings to the region.
However, with high pressure ridging still building over the southern
Gulf, Florida will continue to find itself in a corridor of deeper
moisture, keeping PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. This will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through the middle of the week. The increased forcing and
moisture may also lead to higher chances of morning and overnight
convection that starts at the Gulfstream and moves westward across
the peninsula. During the day, the strongest storms will most likely
focus along the Gulf breeze in interior and southwest Florida due to
the stronger easterly flow.

One factor that makes things a little bit more interesting for
Monday is that guidance is hinting at 500 mb temperatures dropping
to near -10 C, below the 25th percentile for this time of year. If
mid-level lapse rates get steep enough, there could be an isolated
threat of hail and strong to severe wind gusts. The main forcing
will come from the sea breeze convergence, but diurnal heating
should create for a quite unstable environment, with steep low level
laps rates and larger MUCAPE values near 3000 J/kg. Temperatures
aloft will warm up over the middle of the week, which will
diminish the threat of severe storms. But, typical afternoon
thunderstorms with frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours
looks to remain the norm through the end of the week.

Heat indices each day will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, once
again contributing to Moderate to Major HeatRisk. The upper level
ridge from the Gulf will slide eastward over Florida towards the end
of the week, which will increase pressure heights and warm the
environment. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool
indicates increased chances of of 30% to 40% for observing Major
(level 3 of 4) heat related impacts next Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions for all sites through the period. Breezy ESE winds
are expected for most eastern locations, while a Gulf breeze
develops at KAPF during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers are forecast for interior South Florida and southwest
Florida. Added vicinity thunderstorms for KAPF, but most activity
is expected to remain more inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Easterly breezes will strengthen through the weekend along the
Atlantic, with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to
25 kts likely. A weaker westerly breeze will be likely along the
Gulf each afternoon. These breezier conditions look to create some
slightly choppier conditions, but waters are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Isolated weak showers are
possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning, while
there is a low chance of stronger storms impacting the Gulf waters
during the afternoon. Chances of precipitation are expected to
increase across the region heading into next week. Atlantic seas
will be 2-4 feet through the weekend, while the Gulf will remain 2
feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Slightly stronger northerly swell and breezier conditions will
lead to continued high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches.
Guidance is hinting at moderate risk for all other Atlantic
beaches, with increased chances of high risk for the beginning to
middle part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  78  87  78 /  30  30  40  30
West Kendall     90  75  89  75 /  30  30  40  30
Opa-Locka        89  77  88  78 /  30  30  40  30
Homestead        88  77  88  78 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  78  86  79 /  20  30  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  86  77  85  78 /  20  30  40  40
Pembroke Pines   91  78  90  79 /  20  30  40  30
West Palm Beach  86  77  86  78 /  20  20  40  40
Boca Raton       86  78  86  79 /  20  30  40  40
Naples           91  75  92  75 /  10  20  80  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...NMP