Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXUS62 KMLB 130554
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1254 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

- Mostly dry across the area, though isolated showers will remain
  possible through the end of the week, mainly across the local
  Atlantic waters and along the Treasure Coast.

- Poor beach conditions continue, with a high risk of rip
  currents. Boating conditions will begin to deteriorate once
  again tonight into Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures early this week will fall closer to
  normal as a result of weak fronts moving across the peninsula.

&&

.UPDATE... (Overnight)
Issued at 900 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Forecast remains on track. A few showers are moving onshore from
Melbourne southward with light or trace accumulations occurring.
Otherwise, we are tracking a diffuse frontal boundary pushing
southward which will freshen our winds out of the northeast as we
move into Wednesday. This will advect slightly cooler air over the
peninsula. Lows overnight dip into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Wed-Tue)
Issued at 214 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure over the Northeast continues
to strengthen Wednesday, with the tightening pressure gradient
producing onshore winds 15-20mph and gusts to 25mph during the
afternoon. Breezy winds will persist into Wednesday night. Then,
the ridge will begin to weaken into Thursday, allowing winds to
ease to around 10mph or less. Breezy winds will lead to a
"cooldown", which really means temperatures will be closer to
normal in the lower 80s.

Have maintained PoPs around 20% through the period, mainly along
the coast, due to continued onshore flow and rounds of moisture
(PWATs up to around 1.4-1.5"). However, like we`ve seen over the
past few weeks, most areas look to remain dry, with a few isolated
showers pushing onshore at times. By Thursday night, a cold front
looks to begin to drop through the local area, bringing in drier
air and veering winds to the southwest.

Coastal conditions look to remain hazardous, due to a continued
High Risk for rip currents. In addition, astronomical high tides
are forecast to return, so some minor coastal flooding could also
become a concern Thursday into the end of the week. This will
continue to be monitored over the coming days and advisories may
need to be issued.

Friday-Tuesday (modified previous)...The cold front will continue
southward through the local area Friday morning. Behind the
frontal boundary, an area of surface high pressure is forecast to
move in across the southeastern U.S. and remain anchored across
the area through the remainder of the forecast period. Locally,
this will lead to dry conditions, with PoPs generally remaining
below 10 percent. Northeast winds Friday through Sunday will
gradually become more onshore as the high shifts eastward just
north of the Florida peninsula early next week, with wind speeds
generally 10 to 15 mph through the period. In addition to the
drier air, "cooler" temperatures closer to normal will also be
present late week through early next week, with afternoon highs
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. At the beaches, astronomical high tides
through late this week may also cause some minor coastal flooding
along the east central Florida coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...Isolated showers will continue over the
Atlantic waters through the overnight hours, occasionally
drifting onshore into coastal areas, mainly along the Treasure
Coast. Poor boating conditions this afternoon will once again
become hazardous this evening into the overnight hours, as high
pressure builds well north of the local area. Northeast winds
10-15kts this afternoon will become 15-20kts by daybreak, with
some areas of prevailing 20kts developing well offshore. Seas will
respond, building from 4-5ft to 5-6ft, with up to 7ft over the
Gulf Stream, late. Small Craft Advisories will begin to go into
effect tonight.

Wednesday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will then linger
into this weekend, with a cold front passage late week and
returning high pressure Saturday and Sunday. Isolated showers will
remain possible into Thursday, before the frontal passage Friday
brings drier air. Onshore winds 20-25kts will persist into
Wednesday night. While winds will subside Thursday, northerly
winds 15-20kts are forecast behind the frontal passage Friday.
While winds will again diminish this weekend, seas will be slow to
subside. In fact, seas will remain generally 5-6ft or greater
through the period. Peak seas look to occur Wednesday and Friday
night, with wave heights 7-8ft, especially offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1254 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

VFR conditions generally expected through today into Wednesday
night. Some BKN/OVC cigs and isolated to scattered onshore moving
showers ongoing from around VRB-SUA, which may lead to some tempo
MVFR conditions through early morning. Otherwise, mostly dry
conditions are forecast across the area through today.

Northeast winds around 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the
coast will strengthen behind a passing weak and diffuse frontal
boundary today. E/NE winds will become breezy/windy soon after
sunrise, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to around
25 to 30 mph through the afternoon. Winds will then gradually
diminish overnight, but will still stay breezy and gusty along the
coast through at least late evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  68  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  82  67  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  81  70  82  66 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  83  70  83  65 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  83  66  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  82  67  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  83  68  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  82  70  82  65 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich