Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS62 KMLB 282346
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms, mainly inland this
  afternoon and early evening, with a isolated stronger storms
  still possible.

- Increasing moisture with an approaching front will lead to a
  rise in rain and storm chances through at least Wednesday, with
  shower and storm coverage remaining near to above normal
  through next weekend.

- Turning even hotter tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s
  and peak heat index values nearing Heat Advisory criteria
  (108-110 degrees), especially near to north of Orlando.

- Hot and muggy conditions continue the rest of the week and into
  the holiday weekend, with peak heat indices 100-107F each
  afternoon. Widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast each
  day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Currently-Tonight...East coast sea breeze will continue inland with
scattered showers and storms developing through late afternoon and
early evening. Greatest coverage of convection is forecast near to
west of the Orlando metro area late today, with the sea breeze
collision. 15Z Cape sounding shows a little more drier air aloft
today, which will aid in strong gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and
frequent lightning with any isolated stronger storms. Small hail may
also be possible, even with temps at 500mb a tad warmer today
(around -6C). Weak steering winds will also lead to slow and
variable storm motion, mostly propagating along sea
breeze/outflow boundaries. This should allow any persistent storms
to produce quick localized rainfall totals of 2-3", leading to
mostly minor flooding.

Showers and storms will diminish into late evening, with dry
conditions forecast overnight. Warm and humid conditions forecast
with lows in the mid to upper 70s for many locations.

Monday-Wednesday...Atlantic ridge axis shifts south of the area into
early this week, as a weak front shifts south toward Florida Monday
and stalls near to north of the area into Tuesday. Low pressure
along this front will shift offshore North Carolina and linger off
the southeast U.S. coast through midweek. Strong mid-level ridge
across the southeast U.S. on Monday will extend into Florida, with
even hotter conditions into tomorrow. Max temps climb to the mid to
upper 90s for much of the area, except low 90s along the coast,
south of the Cape. A Heat Advisory may be needed for northern
portions of east central Florida Monday afternoon, including from
the Orlando metro area northward. It is across this region that
hottest temps and greatest potential (50-80% chance) for heat index
values nearing 108-110 will exist. Scattered showers and storms will
again form with the inland moving east coast sea breeze and any
boundary collisions over the interior, with PoPs ranging from 30-50
percent for much of the region, except 20% (or less) along the
Treasure Coast. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible,
with similar hazards of strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, small
hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Proximity of the front and increasing moisture leading to higher
coverage of showers and storms through midweek (rain chances up to
50-70%) will then drop max temps back to the low to mid 90s on
Tuesday and low 90s on Wednesday. However, the added humidity will
still produce peak heat index values as high as 102-107 degrees.
Weak steering winds and deep moisture (PW values of 2-2.2") will
continue the potential for localized heavy rainfall around 2-4" each
day, leading to mostly minor flooding issues, especially inland.
Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning will continue to accompany
any stronger storms.

Thursday-Sunday...Surface low pressure off the southeast U.S. coast
is forecast to make a slow jog back toward the west as strong mid-
level ridge extends across the eastern United States. NHC
maintains only a low (20%) chance for tropical development with
this system, and conditions only become more unfavorable for
development into late week. Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF
weaken and dissipate this low pressure as it nears the coast. PW
values around 2 inches persist, which will continue higher
coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms each day (PoPs as
high as 50-80%) through late week and into the 4th of July
holiday weekend. Max temps will also remain near to slightly above
normal in the low to mid 90s, with peak afternoon heat index
values still reaching up to 102-107.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Boating conditions remain generally favorable through the upcoming
week as wind speeds stay below 15 knots and seas largely remain
around 1-3 feet (up to 4 feet well offshore mid to late week). Winds
overnight and into the morning hours become S/SW early this week,
but still turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze through the
afternoon and evening. A more predominant onshore flow then develops
through Wed-Fri.

Showers and isolated storms will be possible over the waters in the
morning. Moisture increases leading to scattered to numerous showers
and storms each afternoon/evening, but weak steering winds will keep
much of this activity over land. However, can`t rule out a few
offshore moving storms, especially early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A few storms around MCO/ISM are forecast to diminish by 01Z/02Z
with mostly dry conditions overnight. Winds remain widely light
and variable through the period, turning east-southeast as the sea
breeze develops into Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are forecast to first develop along the coast
by late morning and into tomorrow afternoon with increasing
coverage over the interior through the afternoon and evening. Have
included VCTS at all TAF sites but SUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  95  77  91 /  10  50  30  50
MCO  77  97  78  94 /  20  50  30  70
MLB  77  92  77  91 /  10  40  20  50
VRB  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  50
LEE  78  96  79  93 /  10  50  30  70
SFB  78  97  78  94 /  10  50  30  70
ORL  78  97  79  93 /  10  50  30  70
FPR  76  92  75  93 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Law