Largo, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS62 KTBW 260130
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
830 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

Recent hi-res guidance continues to show signals of a low stratus
deck and patchy fog once again developing across parts of the
area tonight but overall coverage should be less than last night
and mainly focused across the Nature Coast as the low level
northeasterly flow remains in place. There is also a chance for
isolated to scattered showers developing across the Gulf waters
and at times approaching coastal areas as a weakening shortwave
trough swings across the northern Gulf coast and helps promote a
gradual increase in moisture from the south. While the upper
forcing will be on a weakening trend, there should be enough
moisture and isentropic ascent to allow for some precipitation
activity late overnight into Thursday morning and have adjusted
PoPs to reflect these recent trends, though any activity that
does develop is expected to be light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

A closed upper low and associated surface low is located southeast
of Nova Scotia. A cold front extends southwest from this low to
another weak low west of Bermuda. A little closer to Florida, upper
ridging near Bermuda extends northwest through the Carolinas and
into the Ohio River Valley. The surface reflection of this ridge is
a 1028 mb high pressure center over the mid-Atlantic states. This
high pressure will slowly move northeastward toward New England and
will be the dominant weather feature through the end of the week.
This will keep an east-northeast wind flow over Florida with low
rain chances (20-30 percent) through the end of the week.

By Saturday morning, the upper ridge builds stronger over the
western Atlantic as the surface high moves off the mid-Atlantic
states. The next cold front builds and moves into the Mississippi
River Valley and will slowly traverse eastward through the weekend.
This will bring our highest rain chances to the area on Sunday as
the front moves across Florida. The front will exit the area to the
southeast by Monday morning, allowing for high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico to build into the area producing clearing conditions
through the middle of next week. Near seasonal to slightly above
average temps expected through the period. Today will be the coolest
of days with upper 60`s north and mid to upper 70`s central and
southwest, then warming into the mid 70`s to low 80`s for the
remainder of the period. Overnight lows will drop only into the 50`s
and 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place through the remainder of the
evening but there is potential for low stratus and/or fog
development overnight so an extended period of IFR conditions or
worse could occur. Otherwise, any low clouds or fog that develops
will scatter out around 14Z Thursday with VFR conditions then
returning area- wide through the remainder of the period with
winds out of the ENE at 5-8 kts tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

Broad high pressure over the eastern seaboard ridges southwest
across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the
week and into the weekend, with east-northeast flow continuing.
Winds will generally remain around 15 knots or less, with seas less
than 3 feet. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers will be
possible each day, with the highest rain chances forecast on Sunday
as the next cold front moves through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

Quiet conditions and east-northeast winds less than 10 knots
anticipated as high pressure remains north of the area through the
end of the week. Moisture will be slowly increasing leading to more
clouds and possibly a stray shower. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated for the next several days as sufficient low level
moisture will be in place to keep minimum relative humidity values
well above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  79  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  62  82  65  82 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  57  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20
SRQ  59  81  63  81 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  52  78  57  81 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  61  76  65  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle