Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS62 KJAX 130603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
103 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon...Old frontal boundary across NE FL from
Gainesville to St. Augustine still kicking off isolated showers as
it drifts slowly southward, but expect this activity to linger
through sunset in the Marion/Putnam/Flagler county areas. To the
north of this boundary expect Mostly to Partly sunny skies to
prevail with highs around 80 degrees while some lower to middle
80s can be expected just south of the old frontal boundary across
NE FL.

Tonight...Next frontal boundary will push south across the region
this evening with a sharp increase in Northeast winds across SE GA
early this evening and across NE FL late this evening. This will
lead to Northeast winds increasing to 15-25G35 mph along the
Atlantic Coastal counties and to 10-15G25 mph over inland areas
which will continue through the overnight hours. Low temps will
remain slightly above normal values due to the elevated winds, but
will be slightly cooler than previous nights with lows in the
mid/upper 50s across inland SE GA and in the 60s across coastal SE
GA and most of NE FL, except for some near 70F values along the
beaches of NE FL due to the stronger NE winds. While mostly clear
skies can be expected this evening, the NE winds off the Atlantic
will bring some increasing cloud cover, mainly to the Atlantic
Coastal counties after midnight with the potential for isolated
showers pushing onshore at times towards morning, although
measurable rainfall chances will remain close to 20 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Onshore winds will increase on Wednesday as high pressure remains
northeast of the region, gusts near 30-35 mph will be possible
near the coast and St. Johns river basin area. High temperatures
will range from the upper 60s to lower 80s with mostly cloudy
skies throughout the day, and cloud cover will increase overnight
as a front approaches from the west. This front will allow for
some isolated to scattered showers over southeast Georgia on
Thursday morning and afternoon. Temperatures will reach the mid
70s to mid 80s on Thursday before the front makes it`s way across
the area, by Thursday night into Friday morning the front is
forecast to be south of northeast Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

The cold front will be south of our area, sitting over central
Florida by Friday, leaving drier and cooler air in it`s wake as
high pressure builds. Sunny skies, northerly winds, and high
temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s each day this weekend are
forecast with a slight gradual warm-up each day. Low temperatures
Friday and Saturday night will dip into the mid to upper 40s in
inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley area, with lows
in the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

The 06Z TAF period begins with mainly VFR conditions as strong
high pressure builds north of the region over interior Northeast
and Mid Atlantic states. Breezy winds are already occurring at
SSI and SGJ 10-15 knots and expect these winds to increase away
from the the coast through 12Z to CRG, JAX, and VQQ. Broken MVFR
ceilings will prevail at SGJ around 2.5 kft while staying scattered
at other sites with mid level clouds overhead the northeast Florida
sites. As the strong high wedges down the southeast coast, northeast
winds increase after 15Z to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots
expected at SSI, SGJ, CRG, and JAX and around 15 knots at GNV and
VQQ with gusts 20-25 knots expected. Convergent showers will
spread in from the Atlantic to the duval TAF sites as soon as
14-18Z with another in the late afternoon with some coverage into
SGJ and SSI. Clouds will increase this afternoon at the coast due
to the showers and then increase inland after 00Z as another low
pressure system approaches from the west with winds settling below
10 knots inland and 10-15 knots at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Small Craft Advisory headlines have already been posted for all
waters for the upcoming NE wind surge tonight into the 20-25 knot
range that will continue through Wednesday before becoming
Southeast and decreasing to around 15 knots on Thursday, but while
winds will decrease the seas will remain elevated with a mix of
SCA/SCEC headlines expected through the end of the week. The next
cold frontal passage from the Northwest is still on track for
early Friday with the next surge of North winds around 15-20 knots
which will continue into Saturday before the high pressure builds
directly over the local waters on Sunday with a more significant
decrease in winds/seas expected late in the weekend.

Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents will continue through at
least the end of the week as a renewed surge of NE winds develops
tonight and continues through Thursday with surf/breakers of 2-4
ft today building to 4-6 ft for Wednesday/Thursday time frame with
potential high surf advisory conditions of 5-7 ft not out of the
question.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Have posted Coastal Flood Advisory for the NE FL/SE GA beaches and
St. Johns River Basin starting with the Wednesday morning high
tide cycle and continuing through Friday as a renewed NE wind
surge tonight combined with higher than normal astronomical tides
from the upcoming full moon cycle will set up a high confidence of
Minor coastal/tidal flooding during this time frame of 2.0 to 2.5
ft above MHHW along the Atlantic Coast and 1.5 to 2.0 ft above
MHHW along the St. Johns River Basin. There is some signal for
possibly reaching locally Moderate flooding values by Thursday
morning high tide cycle, but confidence not high enough for the
issuance of a Coastal Flood Watch at this time. Minor coastal
flooding may linger into the weekend depending on the strength of
the next surge of North winds behind the next cold frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  59  75  53 /   0  10  30   0
SSI  73  67  77  57 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  75  64  81  59 /  10   0  10  10
SGJ  77  68  80  63 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  79  62  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  81  64  83  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST
     Friday for FLZ033-038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST
     Friday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$