Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS62 KJAX 221106
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
606 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees chillier than normal, with
highs staying in the 50s from I-10 northward, and lower 60s south
of I-10 today despite mostly sunny skies. Northeasterly winds
will increase today through overnight, bringing a few showers near
the northeast Florida coast after midnight. Lows are forecast to
remain above freezing for most of the area, with far inland
southeast Georgia expected to flirt with freezing temperatures in
a few locations. Although most of inland southeast Georgia will
see lows in the mid 30s, frost development is not likely at this
time due to elevated winds overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

On Monday, a strong high pressure around 1038 mb will be located
from the northeast U.S., with ridging south-southwest through the
DELMARVA area and into the southeast states. An fairly strong
inverted trough will be located offshore some 100 miles from the
coast which will strengthen a bit as a shortwave trough lifts
northeastward over the area Monday into Monday night. A moderate
northeast flow will be felt over the area with the stronger winds
15-25 mph at the coast. Best lift and moisture will be located
along and east of the trough, but convergence and sufficient
moisture through about 7000-10000 ft should support isolated to
scattered showers for the eastern half of the area both Monday and
Monday night. Both NAM and GFS do close off a weak low in the
trough some 90 miles east of Mayport by Monday night. This low
and trough system is expected to lift east and northeast Monday
night taking most, if not all, the precip with it overnight off to
the northeast/ away from the area. Low level flow should shift to
be more northerly by Tuesday morning. There is a low possibility
of patchy fog and stratus early Tuesday morning given weakening of
sfc winds and ample low level moisture.

By Tuesday, sfc high pressure will dominate the area to the north
with a north to northeast flow and drier low level conditions.
The winds should not be as breezy as Monday.

As for temps, a chilly day, cooler than normal, on Monday with
north-northeast flow causing continued neutral to some cool advection.
Temps will be held in check by this flow and the clouds that will
be more prevalent along the coastal counties. Highs range from
only lower 50s for inland southeast GA to the upper 60s to about
70 across srn most zones. Monday night, not as a cool but most
areas will see lows fall to the 40s, but fairly wide range in
temps, close to 50 deg at the coast for northeast FL and 39/40
deg well inland over interior southeast GA. Tuesday, moderation
in temps as thicknesses increase and so expecting highs to be
within about 3 deg of normal, or generally lower to mid 60s, with
close to lower 70s for srn most zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

High pressure ridge continues north of the area Wednesday, but we
see another inverted trough develop off the FL east coast Wed-
Thu. Model guidance has appeared to back off on the prospects for
scattered showers during this period, but will continue to show
some isolated shower chance for the eastern most zones and higher
chances over the coastal waters. The discrepancy in the guidance
seems to be related to how they handle shortwave wave energy
riding east-northeast over the eastern Gulf and the southeast
states. Better agreement exists over the srn CONUS as more potent
shortwave troughing moves east-northeast. The shortwave trough,
mainly located over TX and OK on Thursday, is forecast to track
more or less northeast and weaken. However, the developing southerly
flow, veering flow, lingering sfc trough near the coast, and
sufficient moisture is expected to support a low chance of
showers during the rest of the period. Is it noteworthy that the
GFS shows a broader swath of clouds and higher precip chances Thu
night into Friday mainly in association with shortwave energy
aloft moving across the region, but this appears to be an outlier
solution at this time.

Temperatures will trend to a few degrees above normal for this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Northeasterly
winds will pick up after sunrise, with gusts near 20 knots likely
near the coastal sites. Towards the end of the TAF period, there
is a chance of low ceilings at GNV and SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

With strong high pressure building to the north, northeast winds
will increase today as a coastal trough forms and lingers near the
coastal waters. Seas will be elevated in combination with stronger
winds, prompting Small Craft Advisories through tonight, winds and
seas are forecast to weaken Tuesday to below advisory criteria.
Coastal troughs will linger through most of the week, allowing for
isolated to scattered showers.

Rip Currents: With building onshore winds, a high rip current risk
is in effect for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida beaches
today, and possibly Monday as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  34  53  39 /   0   0  20  20
SSI  56  45  57  46 /   0   0  40  40
JAX  58  45  62  46 /   0  10  40  30
SGJ  61  52  66  52 /   0  20  50  30
GNV  62  44  67  46 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  65  47  71  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-030-
     035-120-220-322-422-522.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ024-031-136-
     232-236-425.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ450-452-470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ454.

&&

$$