Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

652
FXUS62 KJAX 152339
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
739 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms This Evening, Mainly
  Northeast FL coast. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts,
  Small Hail

- Scattered Severe Storms Monday. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind
Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, and Hail

- Small Craft Advisory Late Tonight through Tuesday

- Frost and Light Freeze for Inland Southeast GA & Suwannee Valley

&&

.UPDATE...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving up the northeast Florida
coast this evening, bringing a threat for damaging winds, heavy
downpours, and hail. Storms will linger through the late evening,
with a lull in activity overnight before another round of severe
storms beginning Monday morning for southeast Georgia and the
Suwannee valley. Showers and a couple isolated thunderstorms will
hang around overnight primarily in southeast GA, but are not
expecting to be strong as the atmosphere stabilizes after sunset.

Scattered severe storms, bringing damaging winds, tornadoes, and
hail will spread through the day across southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida. Most convection will exit the local area by
sunset. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting southeast
Georgia under an "Enhanced" risk (level 3/5) of severe storms, an
uncommon category for our area, with a "Slight" risk (level 2/5)
elsewhere. Models continue to show ample CAPE and moisture due
to breezy southwest flow ahead of the front, as well as decent
shear. Impressive low level helicity values will be present over
southeast Georgia with the convection, posing a threat to
tornadoes. Wind gusts outside of convection will approach 30-35
mph Monday. Rainfall amounts through Monday night generally
range from 0.5-1.25" but within heavy thunderstorms, locally
higher amounts are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered strong to severe storms Monday with damaging winds and
tornadoes possible
- Light freeze and frost potential Tuesday night

A cold front will move southeast across the area Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this front. Conditions are expected to
be favorable for severe weather, to include the potential for
damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. Due to frontal timing high
temperatures will range from the lower 70s inland SE GA, to the
lower 80s coastal NE FL.

High pressure will build from the west Monday night following the
frontal passage. Strong cold advection will push temperatures down
significantly through the night. Lows near freezing over inland SE
GA, can be expected. Winds will continue to stir through the night,
limiting frost potential.

The center of the surface high will build closer to the area
Tuesday, but the region will be in the base of an upper trough, so
while it will be dry, clouds will stream across. With cold advection
continuing, it will be well below normal, with highs largely in the
50s. A few spots south of GNV could get to 60.

The surface high will build more toward the north Tuesday night, as
region remains in base of upper trough. Clouds will move move off to
the southeast, which will allow temperatures to fall further, with
inland areas north of I10 experiencing a freeze. With lighter winds,
frost chances are high Tuesday night, except for coastal NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming trend late in the period.

Surface high pressure will be centered to the north northeast
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Freezing temperatures inland
expected north of I10. Winds will be fairly light, so frost is
expected for all but coastal NE FL. Temperatures will begin to
moderate Wednesday, but remain below average.

The region will be between a ridge of high pressure to the northwest
and a trough of low pressure Wednesday night through Thursday night.
The dry weather will continue during this time, with temperatures
coming closer to normal.

The surface high pressure ridge will build overhead of the region
Friday into Friday night, as temperatures rise above normal.

The high will sink to the south over the weekend, but dry weather
will continue with temperatures continuing above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Difficult TAF forecast, storms are currently ongoing and will impact
most of the sites over the next few hours. A brief lull in
convection overnight will pave the way for MVFR ceilings, vicinity
showers, and on and off gusty winds ahead of a strong incoming cold
front. Another round of numerous showers and storms will impact the
six TAF sites Monday late morning through the afternoon, scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, bringing damaging winds
and hail. For now, maintaining PROB30s Monday afternoon, timing will
be refined with the next TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...

A strong low pressure center will pivot northeastward from the Upper
Midwest across towards the Great Lakes states tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon near our near shore
waters and will continue through this evening, with strong to
isolated severe storms possible. This storm system`s cold front will
then enter the southeastern states late tonight, crossing our local
waters on Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will strengthen over the
offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida late this afternoon
and evening, where Small Craft Advisories are expected to develop
overnight. Southerly winds will strengthen near shore this evening,
and Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop shortly after
sunrise on Monday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to
impact our local waters on Monday afternoon, with the potential for
damaging wind gusts, waterspouts, and large hail.

Winds will shift to westerly during the passage of the strong cold
front, with strong northwesterly winds forecast on Monday night and
Tuesday morning throughout our local waters as high pressure builds
into the southeastern states. Winds will shift to northerly on
Tuesday afternoon and then northeasterly by Wednesday as high
pressure shifts northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. This
strengthening high pressure center will wedge down the southeastern
seaboard later this week, creating another round of Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds and seas
are expected to diminish by Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected with breezy southeast to
southerly winds this afternoon at local beaches, along with
surf/breakers of 2-4 ft, along with a greater impact from potential
thunderstorm activity late this afternoon and evening. Gusty
southwest to westerly winds on Monday will knock surf down slightly
to 2-3 ft, but a moderate risk of rip currents will continue at all
area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     AREAS OF MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT INLAND TUESDAY THROUGH
- Thursday
     AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY
- Through Sunday
- Patchy High Dispersions Ne Fl Thursday

A strong cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of the front
Tonight, with potential for strong to severe storms along front
during the day Monday. High pressure will be the prevailing weather
feature Tuesday through Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not
expected Tonight. Thunderstorm chances through Monday, with chances
for strong to severe storms. The greatest chance for the severe
weather will be during the day Monday. A frost/freeze is forecast
for Tuesday night, mainly inland areas north of I10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  74  33  54 /  40  80  10   0
SSI  63  74  38  54 /  70  80  10   0
JAX  64  81  36  57 /  70  80  10   0
SGJ  63  79  39  58 /  70  80  20   0
GNV  63  80  36  59 /  60  90  10   0
OCF  64  81  38  59 /  60  90  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$